2020 12 04 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Olympiakos vs Volos NFC at 05 December 2020
Atromitos vs Aris at 05 December 2020
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis at 06 December 2020
OFI Crete vs Apollon at 06 December 2020
Giannina vs Lamia at 06 December 2020
AEK vs Panathinaikos at 06 December 2020
Panetolikos vs Larisa at 07 December 2020


Olympiakos vs Volos NFC at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Olympiakos and Volos NFC for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Olympiakos

1.16

2.12

-39.0

Draw

7.28

3.46

15.2

Volos NFC

15.16

4.18

17.3

Over 2.5

1.50

2.71

-29.8

Under 2.5

2.49

1.58

23.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (15.2 %, 17.3 %, 23.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance at home.
Olympiakos, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 15 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Aris

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Atromitos

H

4

0

W

O

N

04 Oct

Giannina

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Sep

Asteras Tripolis

H

3

0

W

O

N


Volos NFC in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance as a guest.
Volos NFC, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

Apollon

A

3

3

D

O

G

23 Nov

OFI Crete

H

1

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Panathinaikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Oct

Lamia

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

PAOK

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Sep

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Olympiakos and the red line for guest team, Volos NFC.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Olympiakos

38%

22%

15%

25%

Volos NFC

48%

35%

14%

2%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Olympiakos to score 2.72 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.12 goals in the game and the home team Olympiakos to win by 2.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Olympiakos to score 1.26 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.71 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and the home team Olympiakos to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.43

0-1

2.35

1

4.13

2-3

2.40

2

4.90

4+

6.37

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.75

4

8.93

Un 1.5

2.35

5

25.64

Ov 2.5

2.71

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.59

Gg

3.13

Ov 3.5

6.37

NoG

1.47

Un 3.5

1.19

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.94

2.32

3.18

2-3 goals

1.72

5.33

4.33

4+ goals

1.29

5.81

19.62

Ov 1.5

1.57

5.46

5.51

Un 1.5

3.94

2.32

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.26

13.67

7.53

Un 2.5

3.52

2.40

3.33

Ov 3.5

1.29

5.81

19.62

Un 3.5

2.41

3.21

3.66

Goal-Goal

1.83

3.04

7.98

No Goal

2.28

3.70

3.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.39

8.93

6.03

NG+Un 2.5

3.08

3.70

2.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atromitos vs Aris at 05 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Aris for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 05 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

2.47

2.70

-3.4

Draw

2.95

3.56

-5.8

Aris

2.93

2.87

0.7

Over 2.5

2.49

2.60

-1.7

Under 2.5

1.51

1.63

-4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aris (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Nov

Larisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Apollon

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Giannina

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Oct

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Olympiakos

A

0

4

L

O

N

04 Oct

AEK

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

OFI Crete

A

2

2

D

O

G


Aris in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance as a guest.
Aris, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Dec

Larisa

A

3

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Giannina

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Sep

Volos NFC

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Aris.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

34%

32%

27%

7%

Aris

38%

33%

13%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.1 goals and Aris to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.07 goals and Aris to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.69

0-1

2.75

1

4.27

2-3

2.16

2

4.00

4+

5.81

3

4.69

Ov 1.5

1.57

4

9.17

Un 1.5

2.75

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.60

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.63

Gg

2.46

Ov 3.5

5.81

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.06

2.80

3.17

2-3 goals

2.12

4.41

3.31

4+ goals

5.21

3.82

1.83

Ov 1.5

2.53

4.23

2.71

Un 1.5

3.06

2.80

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.57

8.56

2.03

Un 2.5

2.79

2.61

3.86

Ov 3.5

5.21

3.82

1.83

Un 3.5

2.45

3.52

3.24

Goal-Goal

3.31

2.71

3.04

No Goal

2.40

4.55

2.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

6.71

2.25

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

4.55

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis at 06 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PAOK

1.32

2.16

-29.5

Draw

4.94

3.52

8.2

Asteras Tripolis

8.84

3.97

13.9

Over 2.5

1.76

2.65

-19.1

Under 2.5

2.06

1.61

13.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Asteras Tripolis, Under 2.5 (8.2 %, 13.9 %, 13.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PAOK in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance at home.
PAOK, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Lamia

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Apollon

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Panetolikos

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

OFI Crete

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

18 Sep

Atromitos

H

1

1

D

U

G


Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance as a guest.
Asteras Tripolis, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

AEK

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Nov

Apollon

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Lamia

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Larisa

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Panetolikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Sep

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PAOK and the red line for guest team, Asteras Tripolis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PAOK

38%

22%

18%

23%

Asteras Tripolis

46%

33%

18%

2%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 2.16 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 0.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 1.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.25 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.71

0-1

2.49

1

4.42

2-3

2.30

2

4.50

4+

6.13

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.68

4

8.85

Un 1.5

2.49

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.67

6+

200.00

Un 2.5

1.61

Gg

3.00

Ov 3.5

6.13

NoG

1.50

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.01

2.29

3.18

2-3 goals

1.76

6.03

3.74

4+ goals

1.39

4.41

18.11

Ov 1.5

1.64

5.48

4.78

Un 1.5

4.01

2.29

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.33

10.14

6.58

Un 2.5

3.42

2.52

3.21

Ov 3.5

1.39

4.41

18.11

Un 3.5

2.41

3.38

3.45

Goal-Goal

1.89

3.06

6.94

No Goal

2.32

3.80

3.28

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.48

7.05

5.44

NG+Un 2.5

3.03

3.80

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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OFI Crete vs Apollon at 06 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between OFI Crete and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

OFI Crete

1.78

2.08

-8.1

Draw

3.58

3.42

1.3

Apollon

4.20

4.41

-1.1

Over 2.5

2.01

2.98

-16.2

Under 2.5

1.75

1.51

9.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (1.3 %, 9.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

OFI Crete in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance at home.
OFI Crete, at home, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Nov

Volos NFC

A

4

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Olympiakos

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AEK

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Panathinaikos

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

PAOK

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Sep

Atromitos

H

2

2

D

O

G


Apollon in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

Volos NFC

H

3

3

D

O

G

25 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Atromitos

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Olympiakos

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Oct

Giannina

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, OFI Crete and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

OFI Crete

25%

39%

24%

11%

Apollon

46%

33%

16%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.56 goals and Apollon to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.22 goals and Apollon to score 0.79 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.62

0-1

2.62

1

3.77

2-3

2.04

2

3.53

4+

7.81

3

4.81

Ov 1.5

1.62

4

10.64

Un 1.5

2.62

5

34.48

Ov 2.5

2.98

6+

200.00

Un 2.5

1.51

Gg

2.48

Ov 3.5

7.81

NoG

1.68

Un 3.5

1.15

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.10

3.28