2020 12 04 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bayern Munich vs Khimki at 04 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Villeurbanne at 04 December 2020
Zalgiris vs Barcelona at 04 December 2020
Anadolu Efes vs Baskonia at 04 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bayern Munich vs Khimki at 04 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayern Munich and Khimki for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bayern Munich

1.5

1.60

Khimki

2.7

2.67

Bayern Munich HC

-4.5

-4.00

Khimki HC

+4.5

4.00

Point Line

164.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 27

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

76

83

7

4

L 2

70

82

Nov 19

H

CSKA Moscow

L

81

89

7

3

L 1

81

85

Nov 17

A

Anadolu Efes

W

74

71

7

2

W 3

75

69

Nov 13

H

Valencia Basket

W

90

79

6

2

W 2

87

74

Nov 6

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

74

59

5

2

W 1

76

62

Oct 29

A

Real Madrid

L

82

100

4

2

L 1

82

97

Oct 23

H

Olympiacos

W

74

68

4

1

W 4

76

71

Oct 16

A

Fenerbahce

W

75

71

3

1

W 3

75

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 26

A

Alba Berlin

L

80

100

2

8

L 2

74

102

Nov 19

H

Anadolu Efes

L

77

105

2

7

L 1

78

102

Nov 17

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

88

83

2

6

W 1

96

89

Nov 6

A

Fenerbahce

L

71

83

1

6

L 1

71

88

Oct 30

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

83

77

1

5

W 1

85

81

Oct 23

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

87

89

0

5

L 4

86

88

Oct 16

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

60

77

0

4

L 3

62

75

Oct 14

A

Real Madrid

L

85

94

0

3

L 2

85

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bayern Munich (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bayern Munich will expected to score 83 points and the Khimki 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bayern Munich

Khimki

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

16.00

18.30

DRB

21.30

23.10

AST-TO

1.26

1.24

TRB

30.40

31.10

FTM

15.80

13.60

BL

2.10

4.30

FTA

19.10

17.60

PF-Fewer

25.30

20.80

ST

7.50

5.20

TO-Fewer

12.70

14.80

Ftper

0.83

0.77

ORBper

0.43

0.35

ORB

9.10

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Madrid vs Villeurbanne at 04 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Villeurbanne for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Madrid

1.12

1.57

Villeurbanne

6.8

2.76

Real Madrid HC

-13.5

-4.50

Villeurbanne HC

+13.5

4.50

Point Line

158.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 26

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

74

6

5

L 1

73

71

Nov 20

H

Fenerbahce

W

94

74

6

4

W 5

94

78

Nov 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

79

63

5

4

W 4

78

62

Nov 13

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

73

67

4

4

W 3

75

71

Nov 6

A

Zalgiris

W

93

90

3

4

W 2

90

89

Oct 29

H

Bayern Munich

W

100

82

2

4

W 1

101

80

Oct 23

A

FC Barcelona

L

72

79

1

4

L 2

79

77

Oct 16

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

70

78

1

3

L 1

69

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 1

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

73

3

6

W 2

90

72

Nov 27

H

FC Barcelona

W

80

68

2

6

W 1

88

66

Nov 18

A

Alba Berlin

L

75

76

1

6

L 3

70

78

Nov 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

53

66

1

5

L 2

58

70

Nov 11

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

68

89

1

4

L 1

70

94

Nov 5

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

88

86

1

3

W 1

91

84

Oct 29

H

Zalgiris

L

74

83

0

3

L 2

72

82

Oct 9

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

73

87

0

2

L 1

72

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Madrid (in the first graph) and by Villeurbanne in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Madrid will expected to score 80 points and the Villeurbanne 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Madrid

Villeurbanne

FG%

0.56

0.55

ASS

19.10

17.00

DRB

21.40

23.00

AST-TO

1.66

1.12

TRB

29.50

29.60

FTM

11.40

13.10

BL

3.30

2.40

FTA

14.20

17.30

PF-Fewer

19.40

23.00

ST

6.30

6.80

TO-Fewer

11.50

15.20

Ftper

0.80

0.76

ORBper

0.38

0.29

ORB

8.10

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zalgiris vs Barcelona at 04 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zalgiris and Barcelona for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zalgiris

3.45

3.65

Barcelona

1.33

1.38

Zalgiris HC

+7.5

6.50

Barcelona HC

-7.5

-6.50

Point Line

154.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

75

83

5

6

L 5

82

89

Nov 20

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

92

98

5

5

L 4

91

94

Nov 17

H

CSKA Moscow

L

78

87

5

4

L 3

78

83

Nov 12

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

57

85

5

3

L 2

56

84

Nov 6

H

Real Madrid

L

90

93

5

2

L 1

90

90

Oct 29

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

83

74

5

1

W 1

85

78

Oct 22

H

Valencia Basket

L

82

94

4

1

L 1

79

88

Oct 15

H

Anadolu Efes

W

89

73

4

0

W 3

90

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 27

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

68

80

8

2

L 1

69

84

Nov 20

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

76

65

8

1

W 7

78

68

Nov 12

H

Fenerbahce

W

97

55

7

1

W 6

98

58

Nov 5

A

Alba Berlin

W

103

67

6

1

W 5

96

68

Oct 30

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

72

71

5

1

W 4

75

69

Oct 23

H

Real Madrid

W

79

72

4

1

W 3

79

70

Oct 15

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

89

3

1

W 2

90

88

Oct 13

A

Valencia Basket

W

71

66

2

1

W 1

68

62

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zalgiris (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zalgiris will expected to score 76 points and the Barcelona 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zalgiris

Barcelona

FG%

0.57

0.57

ASS

17.60

19.40

DRB

20.10

23.50

AST-TO

1.63

1.35

TRB

27.70

31.20

FTM

13.50

13.70

BL

1.20

2.70

FTA

15.30

17.30

PF-Fewer

20.30

19.90

ST

4.90

6.30

TO-Fewer

10.80

14.40

Ftper

0.89

0.79

ORBper

0.38

0.33

ORB

7.60

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Anadolu Efes vs Baskonia at 04 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.37

1.92

Baskonia

3.25

2.09

Anadolu Efes HC

-6.5

-1.50

Baskonia HC

+6.5

1.50

Point Line

158.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 26

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

75

64

6

4

W 2

77

68

Nov 19

A

BC Khimki

W

105

77

5

4

W 1

94

78

Nov 17

H

Bayern Munich

L

71

74

4

4

L 1

72

73

Nov 13

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

80

77

4

3

W 3

74

76

Nov 5

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

91

89

3

3

W 2

90

88

Oct 30

A

Olympiacos

W

84

79

2

3

W 1

87

83

Oct 15

A

Zalgiris

L

73

89

1

3

L 1

70

88

Oct 13

A

Alba Berlin

W

93

72

1

2

W 1

86

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 26

A

Olympiacos

W

90

76

5

5

W 1

93

79

Nov 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

4

5

L 1

77

82

Nov 19

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

93

72

4

4

W 2

86

71

Nov 17

H

Fenerbahce

W

86

68

3

4

W 1

86

72

Nov 12

A

CSKA Moscow

L

86

89

2

4

L 3

86

85

Nov 5

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

86

88

2

3

L 2

88

92

Oct 30

H

FC Barcelona

L

71

72

2

2

L 1

78

70

Oct 16

H

BC Khimki

W

77

60

2

1

W 1

69

61

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 78 points and the Baskonia 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Baskonia

FG%

0.58

0.57

ASS

19.50

19.10

DRB

19.80

21.90

AST-TO

1.86

1.25

TRB

25.20

31.60

FTM

11.90

14.60

BL

3.00

2.60

FTA

15.60

20.40

PF-Fewer

17.30

19.30

ST

6.90

7.80

TO-Fewer

10.50

15.30

Ftper

0.76

0.72

ORBper

0.27

0.44

ORB

5.40

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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