2020 12 07 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nanterre vs Promitheas at 08 December 2020
Ulm vs Buducnost at 08 December 2020
Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aquila Basket Trento at 08 December 2020
Partizan vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 09 December 2020
Monaco vs Virtus Bologna at 09 December 2020
Andorra vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 09 December 2020
Brescia vs Unicaja at 09 December 2020
Antwerp vs Lietkabelis at 09 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Nanterre vs Promitheas at 09 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Nanterre and Promitheas for EuroCup, which will take place on 09 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nanterre

1.6

2.95

Promitheas

2.35

1.51

Nanterre HC

-3.5

5.00

Promitheas HC

+3.5

-5.00

Point Line

160.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 18

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

104

102

2

3

W 1

113

99

Nov 4

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

63

75

1

3

L 3

68

75

Oct 21

A

Promitheas

L

72

88

1

2

L 2

72

91

Oct 13

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

65

71

1

1

L 1

70

69

Sep 30

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

80

76

1

0

W 0

86

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 11

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

80

89

2

2

L 1

87

86

Oct 21

H

Nanterre 92

W

88

72

2

1

W 2

86

76

Oct 13

A

Bursaspor

W

93

84

1

1

W 1

76

81

Oct 6

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

51

78

0

1

L 0

55

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nanterre (in the first graph) and by Promitheas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nanterre will expected to score 80 points and the Promitheas 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nanterre

Promitheas

FG%

0.51

0.52

ASS

15.00

19.00

DRB

26.60

24.30

AST-TO

1.09

1.61

TRB

35.40

31.00

FTM

12.20

16.30

BL

3.20

4.80

FTA

18.00

20.00

PF-Fewer

17.20

17.80

ST

4.60

4.80

TO-Fewer

13.80

11.80

Ftper

0.68

0.81

ORBper

0.33

0.28

ORB

8.80

6.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Ulm vs Buducnost at 09 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ulm and Buducnost for EuroCup, which will take place on 09 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ulm

1.4

1.64

Buducnost

2.95

2.57

Ulm HC

-6.5

-3.50

Buducnost HC

+6.5

3.50

Point Line

169.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ulm are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 10

H

Germani Brescia

W

88

76

3

3

W 2

83

80

Nov 3

A

Mornar

W

82

66

2

3

W 1

80

67

Oct 28

H

Unicaja

L

76

81

1

3

L 3

80

74

Oct 21

A

Buducnost VOLI

L

68

73

1

2

L 2

68

74

Oct 7

A

Germani Brescia

L

84

87

1

1

L 1

80

92

Sep 30

H

Mornar

W

84

76

1

0

W 0

82

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 20

A

Germani Brescia

W

75

66

3

3

W 1

71

70

Nov 18

H

Unicaja

L

66

90

2

3

L 2

69

82

Oct 28

A

Mornar

L

82

85

2

2

L 1

80

86

Oct 21

H

ratiopharm Ulm

W

73

68

2

1

W 1

77

68

Oct 14

A

Unicaja

L

87

91

1

1

L 1

91

83

Sep 29

H

Germani Brescia

W

93

81

1

0

W 0

88

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ulm and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ulm.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ulm (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ulm will expected to score 79 points and the Buducnost 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ulm

Buducnost

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

17.80

13.50

DRB

25.80

24.00

AST-TO

1.58

1.11

TRB

33.50

32.30

FTM

15.00

18.70

BL

2.00

1.70

FTA

19.00

23.00

PF-Fewer

20.70

18.30

ST

6.70

5.30

TO-Fewer

11.30

12.20

Ftper

0.79

0.81

ORBper

0.30

0.35

ORB

7.70

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aquila Basket Trento at 09 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and Aquila Basket Trento for EuroCup, which will take place on 09 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

1.42

2.06

Aquila Basket Trento

2.85

1.94

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana HC

-5.5

1.50

Aquila Basket Trento HC

+5.5

-1.50

Point Line

162.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 11

A

Bursaspor

W

97

80

3

2

W 3

80

77

Nov 9

H

Bursaspor

W

104

88

2

2

W 2

86

85

Nov 4

H

Nanterre 92

W

75

63

1

2

W 1

74

66

Oct 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

51

61

0

2

L 1

55

59

Sep 30

A

Nanterre 92

L

76

80

0

1

L 0

74

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 18

H

Nanterre 92

L

102

104

6

1

L 1

100

109

Nov 11

A

Promitheas

W

89

80

6

0

W 5

89

83

Nov 4

H

Bursaspor

W

89

80

5

0

W 4

73

77

Oct 20

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

61

51

4

0

W 3

66

51

Oct 13

A

Nanterre 92

W

71

65

3

0

W 2

70

68

Oct 6

H

Promitheas

W

78

51

2

0

W 1

78

53

Sep 29

A

Bursaspor

W

93

86

1

0

W 0

76

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana (in the first graph) and by Aquila Basket Trento in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana will expected to score 76 points and the Aquila Basket Trento 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

Aquila Basket Trento

FG%

0.50

0.54

ASS

16.00

17.00

DRB

24.00

23.70

AST-TO

1.78

1.53

TRB

35.80

32.70

FTM

9.80

11.90

BL

2.20

2.40

FTA

13.80

14.90

PF-Fewer

14.60

20.10

ST

7.20

7.90

TO-Fewer

9.00

11.10

Ftper

0.71

0.80

ORBper

0.49

0.38

ORB

11.80

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Partizan vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 09 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Partizan and Bahcesehir Koleji for EuroCup, which will take place on 09 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Partizan

1.33

1.73

Bahcesehir Koleji

3.35

2.37

Partizan HC

-7.5

-3.00

Bahcesehir Koleji HC

+7.5

3.00

Point Line

162.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Partizan are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 19

H

Joventut

W

78

75

4

2

W 3

78

71

Nov 17

H

UNICS

W

89

86

3

2

W 2

87

81

Oct 20

A

Bahcesehir

W

82

76

2

2

W 1

80

78

Oct 14

A

UNICS

L

70

93

1

2

L 1

68

88

Oct 6

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

95

73

1

1

W 1

87

72

Sep 30

A

Joventut

L

82

85

0

1

L 0

82

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 17

A

Joventut

W

87

77

1

5

W 1

86

72

Nov 10

H

UNICS

L

67

70

0

5

L 4

65

66

Oct 28

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

82

88

0

4

L 3

75

86

Oct 20

H

Partizan NIS

L

76

82

0

3

L 2

76

80

Oct 14

H

Joventut

L

72

91

0

2

L 1

72

86

Oct 6

A

UNICS

L

88

89

0

1

L 0

86

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Partizan and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Partizan.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Partizan (in the first graph) and by Bahcesehir Koleji in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Partizan will expected to score 80 points and the Bahcesehir Koleji 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Partizan

Bahcesehir Koleji

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

14.30

14.30

DRB

19.80

23.80

AST-TO

1.06

1.04

TRB

29.80

31.00

FTM

12.20

13.20

BL

2.30

1.50

FTA

18.00

16.50

PF-Fewer

21.50

21.50

ST

7.20

7.80

TO-Fewer

13.50

13.70

Ftper

0.68

0.80

ORBper

0.51

0.30

ORB

10.00

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Virtus Bologna at 09 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Virtus Bologna for EuroCup, which will take place on 09 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.63

2.12

Virtus Bologna

2.3

1.89

Monaco HC

-3.5

1.50

Virtus Bologna HC

+3.5

-1.50

Point Line

152.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 17

A

Antwerp Giants

W

75

67

4

2

W 1

68

74

Oct 28

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

88

3

2

L 2

73

77

Oct 21

A

Virtus Bologna

L

85

94

3

1

L 1

91

88

Oct 14

H

Antwerp Giants

W

96

64

3

0

W 2

88

71

Oct 7

H

Lietkabelis

W

82

57

2

0

W 1

79

63

Sep 30

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

82

76

1

0

W 0

90

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 20

H

Lietkabelis

W

82

73

7

0

W 6

79

81

Nov 11

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

89

83

6

0

W 5

90

72

Oct 27

A

Antwerp Giants

W

95

76

5

0

W 4

87

84

Oct 21

H

Monaco

W

94

85

4

0

W 3

102

84

Oct 13

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

82

66

3

0

W 2

90

73

Oct 7

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

85

79

2

0

W 1

86

69

Sep 30

A

Lietkabelis

W

76

61

1

0

W 0

73

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 79 points and the Virtus Bologna 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.51

0.59

ASS

15.50

23.70

DRB

21.00

23.90

AST-TO

1.58

1.51

TRB

32.50

31.70

FTM

13.80

14.60

BL

2.30

4.10

FTA

20.30

19.60

PF-Fewer

19.20

22.90

ST

7.80

8.60

TO-Fewer

9.80

15.70

Ftper

0.68

0.74

ORBper

0.55

0.33

ORB

11.50

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Andorra vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 09 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Lokomotiv Kuban for EuroCup, which will take place on 09 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

1.6

4.02

Lokomotiv Kuban

2.35

1.33

Andorra HC

-3.5

7.00

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

+3.5

-7.00

Point Line

157.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 19