2020 12 07 Israeli Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ironi Ness Ziona vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 07 December 2020
Bnei Herzliya vs Galil Gilboa at 07 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Ironi Ness Ziona vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 07 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ironi Ness Ziona and Maccabi Tel Aviv for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 07 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ironi Ness Ziona

5

2.16

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.16

1.86

Ironi Ness Ziona HC

+9.5

2.00

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-9.5

-2.00

Point Line

164.5

170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ironi Ness Ziona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 16

A

Hapoel Haifa

L

91

106

1

3

L 2

90

103

Nov 12

A

Hapoel Tel Aviv

L

80

82

1

2

L 1

82

90

Nov 9

H

Bnei Herzliya

W

80

74

1

1

W 1

76

78

Nov 1

A

Hapoel Eilat

L

85

95

0

1

L 0

86

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

A

Hapoel Holon

L

76

79

4

1

L 1

75

83

Nov 29

A

Ironi Nahariya

W

98

81

4

0

W 3

91

83

Nov 23

H

Hapoel Haifa

W

81

75

3

0

W 2

80

73

Nov 15

A

Bnei Herzliya

W

92

86

2

0

W 1

88

91

Nov 7

H

Hapoel Eilat

W

86

74

1

0

W 0

86

69

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ironi Ness Ziona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ironi Ness Ziona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ironi Ness Ziona (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Tel Aviv in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ironi Ness Ziona will expected to score 83 points and the Maccabi Tel Aviv 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ironi Ness Ziona

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FG%

0.48

0.57

ASS

17.50

21.80

DRB

23.50

25.40

AST-TO

1.22

1.49

TRB

36.00

33.20

FTM

18.00

14.60

BL

1.50

4.40

FTA

26.00

19.60

PF-Fewer

21.30

21.80

ST

6.00

8.80

TO-Fewer

14.30

14.60

Ftper

0.69

0.74

ORBper

0.53

0.31

ORB

12.50

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bnei Herzliya vs Galil Gilboa at 07 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bnei Herzliya and Galil Gilboa for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 07 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bnei Herzliya

2.45

3.44

Galil Gilboa

1.53

1.41

Bnei Herzliya HC

+4.5

6.00

Galil Gilboa HC

-4.5

-6.00

Point Line

163.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bnei Herzliya are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 21

A

Maccabi Rishon LeZion

L

85

93

0

5

L 4

80

88

Nov 15

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

86

92

0

4

L 3

92

91

Nov 12

H

Hapoel Eilat

L

78

103

0

3

L 2

78

97

Nov 9

A

Ironi Nes Ziona

L

74

80

0

2

L 1

71

81

Nov 2

A

Hapoel Haifa

L

79

80

0

1

L 0

78

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galil Gilboa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

H

Hapoel Eilat

L

77

100

5

1

L 1

78

94

Nov 18

H

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

W

86

73

5

0

W 4

94

65

Nov 14

A

Hapoel Holon

W

88

81

4

0

W 3

87

85

Nov 11

A

Maccabi Haifa

W

82

77

3

0

W 2

70

80

Nov 8

H

Hapoel Tel Aviv

W

88

68

2

0

W 1

90

74

Nov 2

A

Ironi Nahariya

W

73

63

1

0

W 0

68

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bnei Herzliya and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galil Gilboa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galil Gilboa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bnei Herzliya.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bnei Herzliya (in the first graph) and by Galil Gilboa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bnei Herzliya will expected to score 80 points and the Galil Gilboa 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bnei Herzliya

Galil Gilboa

FG%

0.51

0.53

ASS

19.00

17.50

DRB

23.20

26.50

AST-TO

1.10

1.19

TRB

29.60

37.00

FTM

19.20

15.80

BL

2.40

4.50

FTA

24.60

19.70

PF-Fewer

23.20

22.70

ST

6.80

5.70

TO-Fewer

17.20

14.70

Ftper

0.78

0.80

ORBper

0.28

0.40

ORB

6.40

10.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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