2020 12 07 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Vanoli Cremona vs Cantu at 09 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Vanoli Cremona vs Cantu at 09 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Vanoli Cremona and Cantu for Serie A, which will take place on 09 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Vanoli Cremona

1.5

2.12

Cantu

2.6

1.89

Vanoli Cremona HC

-4.5

1.50

Cantu HC

+4.5

-1.50

Point Line

162.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

56

3

4

W 1

88

59

Nov 1

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

83

95

2

4

L 2

86

94

Oct 25

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

83

85

2

3

L 1

86

87

Oct 17

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

80

67

2

2

W 2

74

67

Oct 10

A

Virtus Bologna

W

95

92

1

2

W 1

97

90

Oct 4

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

66

83

0

2

L 1

69

86

Sep 27

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

77

102

0

1

L 0

80

108

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

85

3

5

L 1

75

78

Nov 22

H

Virtus Roma

W

101

85

3

4

W 1

93

91

Nov 18

A

Universo Treviso

L

82

89

2

4

L 3

73

86

Nov 15

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

89

2

3

L 2

82

80

Oct 18

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

67

75

2

2

L 1

70

78

Oct 11

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

90

80

2

1

W 2

83

80

Oct 4

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

81

72

1

1

W 1

84

72

Sep 27

A

Virtus Bologna

L

65

84

0

1

L 0

66

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cantu.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cantu and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Vanoli Cremona (in the first graph) and by Cantu in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Vanoli Cremona will expected to score 82 points and the Cantu 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Vanoli Cremona

Cantu

FG%

0.49

0.53

ASS

13.30

18.10

DRB

27.40

23.90

AST-TO

1.32

1.46

TRB

38.10

30.50

FTM

15.00

14.60

BL

2.00

3.00

FTA

20.00

20.30

PF-Fewer

19.30

17.00

ST

5.40

5.50

TO-Fewer

10.10

12.40

Ftper

0.75

0.72

ORBper

0.39

0.28

ORB

10.70

6.60


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