2020 12 07 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Valencia vs Zenit at 08 December 2020
Barcelona vs Olympiacos at 08 December 2020
Khimki vs Olimpia Milano at 08 December 2020
Anadolu Efes vs Villeurbanne at 08 December 2020
Baskonia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 10 December 2020
Crvena Zvezda vs Olympiacos at 10 December 2020
Alba Berlin vs Fenerbahce at 10 December 2020
Valencia vs Anadolu Efes at 10 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Zenit at 10 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Valencia vs Zenit at 10 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Zenit for EuroLeague, which will take place on 10 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

1.55

1.34

Zenit

2.55

3.97

Valencia HC

-4.5

-7.00

Zenit HC

+4.5

7.00

Point Line

153.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

H

Alba Berlin

L

92

100

7

4

L 1

86

102

Nov 27

A

Fenerbahce

W

90

86

7

3

W 3

90

91

Nov 20

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

82

80

6

3

W 2

81

79

Nov 17

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

95

83

5

3

W 1

88

82

Nov 13

A

Bayern Munich

L

79

90

4

3

L 1

80

88

Nov 6

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

86

81

4

2

W 1

85

78

Oct 29

A

CSKA Moscow

L

75

84

3

2

L 1

75

80

Oct 22

A

Zalgiris

W

94

82

3

1

W 1

92

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

H

Fenerbahce

L

65

73

6

3

L 1

65

77

Nov 26

A

Zalgiris

W

83

75

6

2

W 3

81

75

Nov 23

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

77

70

5

2

W 2

81

68

Nov 20

A

Alba Berlin

W

73

66

4

2

W 1

68

67

Nov 17

H

BC Khimki

L

83

88

3

2

L 1

74

89

Nov 13

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

66

53

3

1

W 1

66

55

Nov 5

H

Olympiacos

L

66

75

2

1

L 1

68

78

Oct 9

H

FC Barcelona

W

74

70

2

0

W 1

82

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by Zenit in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 78 points and the Zenit 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Valencia

Zenit

FG%

0.58

0.52

ASS

20.90

15.20

DRB

20.30

18.90

AST-TO

1.82

1.38

TRB

27.00

26.20

FTM

13.40

12.00

BL

1.70

2.70

FTA

16.40

16.00

PF-Fewer

18.70

21.00

ST

6.60

5.70

TO-Fewer

11.50

11.00

Ftper

0.82

0.75

ORBper

0.33

0.39

ORB

6.70

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Barcelona vs Olympiacos at 10 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Olympiacos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 10 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.2

4.01

Olympiacos

4.7

1.33

Barcelona HC

-9.5

7.00

Olympiacos HC

+9.5

-7.00

Point Line

152.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

A

Zalgiris

W

73

62

9

2

W 1

71

62

Nov 27

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

68

80

8

2

L 1

68

83

Nov 20

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

76

65

8

1

W 7

78

68

Nov 12

H

Fenerbahce

W

97

55

7

1

W 6

97

58

Nov 5

A

Alba Berlin

W

103

67

6

1

W 5

96

68

Oct 30

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

72

71

5

1

W 4

76

69

Oct 23

H

Real Madrid

W

79

72

4

1

W 3

78

69

Oct 15

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

89

3

1

W 2

90

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

A

CSKA Moscow

L

61

80

5

5

L 2

61

76

Nov 26

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

76

90

5

4

L 1

80

88

Nov 12

H

Alba Berlin

W

75

71

5

3

W 2

70

72

Nov 5

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

75

66

4

3

W 1

82

70

Oct 30

H

Anadolu Efes

L

79

84

3

3

L 2

80

83

Oct 23

A

Bayern Munich

L

68

74

3

2

L 1

69

73

Oct 16

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

85

82

3

1

W 3

84

81

Oct 14

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

86

75

2

1

W 2

85

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olympiacos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olympiacos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Olympiacos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 78 points and the Olympiacos 73 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Olympiacos

FG%

0.48

0.53

ASS

16.50

16.90

DRB

18.00

20.30

AST-TO

1.20

1.26

TRB

26.40

27.40

FTM

11.90

13.20

BL

2.50

2.80

FTA

14.90

17.20

PF-Fewer

19.70

21.20

ST

6.60

7.00

TO-Fewer

13.80

13.40

Ftper

0.80

0.77

ORBper

0.47

0.35

ORB

8.40

7.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Khimki vs Olimpia Milano at 10 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Olimpia Milano for EuroLeague, which will take place on 10 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

2.35

2.37

Olimpia Milano

1.63

1.73

Khimki HC

+1.5

3.00

Olimpia Milano HC

-1.5

-3.00

Point Line

161.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

80

2

9

L 3

78

79

Nov 26

A

Alba Berlin

L

80

100

2

8

L 2

75

102

Nov 19

H

Anadolu Efes

L

77

105

2

7

L 1

78

104

Nov 17

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

88

83

2

6

W 1

96

89

Nov 6

A

Fenerbahce

L

71

83

1

6

L 1

71

88

Oct 30

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

83

77

1

5

W 1

85

81

Oct 23

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

87

89

0

5

L 4

86

88

Oct 16

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

60

77

0

4

L 3

63

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

77

80

6

4

L 1

71

79

Dec 1

H

Alba Berlin

W

75

55

6

3

W 3

70

56

Nov 26

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

86

85

5

3

W 2

85

84

Nov 20

H

Zalgiris

W

98

92

4

3

W 1

95

93

Nov 18

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

79

87

3

3

L 2

81

92

Nov 6

A

Valencia Basket

L

81

86

3

2

L 1

78

80

Oct 16

H

Real Madrid

W

78

70

3

1

W 1

78

67

Oct 14

A

Olympiacos

L

75

86

2

1

L 1

77

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 79 points and the Olimpia Milano 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

18.40

14.20

DRB

23.50

21.60

AST-TO

1.25

1.35

TRB

31.10

28.00

FTM

13.40

15.60

BL

4.30

2.90

FTA

17.30

19.90

PF-Fewer

20.90

20.50

ST

5.20

6.60

TO-Fewer

14.70

10.50

Ftper

0.77

0.78

ORBper

0.32

0.30

ORB

7.50

6.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Anadolu Efes vs Villeurbanne at 10 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Villeurbanne for EuroLeague, which will take place on 10 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.25

1.53

Villeurbanne

4.2

2.89

Anadolu Efes HC

-8.5

-5.00

Villeurbanne HC

+8.5

5.00

Point Line

157.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

59

77

6

5

L 1

62

75

Nov 26

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

75

64

6

4

W 2

77

67

Nov 19

A

BC Khimki

W

105

77

5

4

W 1

94

78

Nov 17

H

Bayern Munich

L

71

74

4

4

L 1

72

73

Nov 13

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

80

77

4

3

W 3

74

76

Nov 5

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

91

89

3

3

W 2

90

88

Oct 30

A

Olympiacos

W

84

79

2

3

W 1

86

82

Oct 15

A

Zalgiris

L

73

89

1

3

L 1

71

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

A

Real Madrid

L

84

91

3

7

L 1

84

87

Dec 1

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

73

3

6

W 2

90

72

Nov 27

H

FC Barcelona

W

80

68

2

6

W 1

89

66

Nov 18

A

Alba Berlin

L

75

76

1

6

L 3

70

78

Nov 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

53

66

1

5

L 2

58

70

Nov 11

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

68

89

1

4

L 1

70

94

Nov 5

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

88

86

1

3

W 1

93

84

Oct 29

H

Zalgiris

L

74

83

0

3

L 2

72

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Villeurbanne in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 78 points and the Villeurbanne 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Villeurbanne

FG%

0.57

0.56

ASS

19.20

16.50

DRB

19.50

22.60

AST-TO

1.78

1.09

TRB

25.50

29.20

FTM

11.50

13.30

BL

3.00

2.40

FTA

14.80

17.30

PF-Fewer

17.40

23.20

ST

6.80

6.70

TO-Fewer

10.80

15.20

Ftper

0.77

0.77

ORBper

0.30

0.29

ORB

5.90

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Baskonia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 10 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and Maccabi Tel Aviv for EuroLeague, which will take place on 10 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Baskonia

1.93

1.40

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.91

3.51

Baskonia HC

-1.5

-6.50

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+1.5

6.50

Point Line

156.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

A

Anadolu Efes

W

77

59

6

5

W 2

78

58

Nov 26

A

Olympiacos

W

90

76

5

5

W 1

93

79

Nov 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

4

5

L 1

77

82

Nov 19

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

93

72

4

4