# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Watford vs Rotherham at 08 December 2020**** Stoke vs Cardiff at 08 December 2020**** Huddersfield vs Sheffield Weds at 08 December 2020**** Coventry vs Luton at 08 December 2020**** Millwall vs QPR at 08 December 2020**** Swansea vs Bournemouth at 08 December 2020**** Reading vs Birmingham at 09 December 2020**** Preston vs Middlesbrough at 09 December 2020**** Barnsley vs Wycombe at 09 December 2020**** Bristol City vs Blackburn at 09 December 2020**** Brentford vs Derby at 09 December 2020**** Norwich vs Nott’m Forest at 09 December 2020**

###
Watford vs Rotherham at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Rotherham** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **08 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.54 |
1.79 |
-9.1 |

Draw |
4.12 |
3.97 |
0.9 |

Rotherham |
6.11 |
5.26 |
2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.01 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.99 |
-0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Rotherham (0.9 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Preston |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
QPR |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Stoke |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Rotherham** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rotherham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance** as a guest**.

Rotherham,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Coventry |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
QPR |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Preston |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Rotherham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
16% |
32% |
30% |
23% |

Rotherham |
35% |
44% |
14% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.9 ** goals and **Rotherham** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **1.2** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Rotherham** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
1.89 |

2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
3.77 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.13 |
4.21 |
3.42 |

2-3 goals |
1.68 |
3.81 |
7.07 |

4+ goals |
1.77 |
4.14 |
5.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.70 |
3.91 |
6.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.13 |
4.21 |
3.42 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
8.88 |
5.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.57 |
5.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.77 |
4.14 |
5.16 |

Un 3.5 |
1.79 |
3.93 |
5.32 |

Goal-Goal |
2.08 |
2.79 |
6.19 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
8.09 |
4.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
7.25 |
4.61 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.68 |
8.09 |
4.02 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stoke vs Cardiff at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stoke** and **Cardiff** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **08 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stoke |
2.63 |
2.40 |
3.6 |

Draw |
3.18 |
3.55 |
-3.3 |

Cardiff |
2.81 |
3.32 |
-5.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.23 |
1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.81 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stoke, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stoke** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stoke** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance** at home**.

Stoke,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Norwich |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Huddersfield |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Reading |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

04 Nov |
Watford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Cardiff** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cardiff** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance** as a guest**.

Cardiff,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Watford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Luton |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Nov |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Barnsley |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
QPR |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stoke** and the red line for guest team, **Cardiff. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stoke |
24% |
38% |
21% |
16% |

Cardiff |
32% |
39% |
18% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.41 |

1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.40 |
3.81 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.43 |
3.34 |
3.46 |

4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.79 |
3.27 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.47 |
3.40 |

Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.81 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
7.84 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.47 |
3.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.79 |
3.27 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.50 |
3.32 |

Goal-Goal |
2.94 |
2.52 |
3.79 |

No Goal |
2.00 |
6.30 |
2.92 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.46 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.30 |
2.92 |

####
Go to Top

###
Huddersfield vs Sheffield Weds at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huddersfield** and **Sheffield Weds** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **08 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huddersfield |
2.53 |
1.92 |
12.6 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.97 |
-5.8 |

Sheffield Weds |
2.90 |
4.42 |
-11.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.08 |
3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.92 |
-8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (12.6 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** at home**.

Huddersfield,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
QPR |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Stoke |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Luton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Millwall |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield Weds,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Reading |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Nov |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Preston |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huddersfield** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield Weds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huddersfield |
22% |
28% |
28% |
22% |

Sheffield Weds |
38% |
40% |
12% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Huddersfield ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.57 |
3.40 |
3.16 |

2-3 goals |
1.67 |
4.30 |
5.96 |

4+ goals |
1.94 |
4.09 |
4.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.74 |
4.23 |
5.25 |

Un 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.40 |
3.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
8.55 |
4.32 |

Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.65 |
4.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.94 |
4.09 |
4.16 |

Un 3.5 |
1.91 |
3.93 |
4.53 |

Goal-Goal |
2.14 |
2.86 |
5.43 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
6.30 |
3.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
6.68 |
4.16 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
6.30 |
3.55 |

####
Go to Top

###
Coventry vs Luton at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Coventry** and **Luton** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **08 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Coventry |
2.28 |
2.23 |
1.0 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.69 |
-3.4 |

Luton |
3.27 |
3.57 |
-2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.15 |
1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.87 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Coventry, Over 2.5 (1 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Coventry** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Coventry** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance** at home**.

Coventry,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Derby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Nov |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Watford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Reading |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Luton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Luton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance** as a guest**.

Luton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Nov |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Coventry** and the red line for guest team, **Luton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Coventry |
23% |
34% |
24% |
18% |

Luton |
33% |
38% |
18% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Coventry** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Luton** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Coventry** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Luton** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Coventry ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.60 |
3.16 |