2020 12 08 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Watford vs Rotherham at 08 December 2020
Stoke vs Cardiff at 08 December 2020
Huddersfield vs Sheffield Weds at 08 December 2020
Coventry vs Luton at 08 December 2020
Millwall vs QPR at 08 December 2020
Swansea vs Bournemouth at 08 December 2020
Reading vs Birmingham at 09 December 2020
Preston vs Middlesbrough at 09 December 2020
Barnsley vs Wycombe at 09 December 2020
Bristol City vs Blackburn at 09 December 2020
Brentford vs Derby at 09 December 2020
Norwich vs Nott’m Forest at 09 December 2020


Watford vs Rotherham at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Rotherham for Championship (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

1.54

1.79

-9.1

Draw

4.12

3.97

0.9

Rotherham

6.11

5.26

2.6

Over 2.5

1.85

2.01

-4.3

Under 2.5

1.97

1.99

-0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rotherham (0.9 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Preston

H

4

1

W

O

G

25 Nov

Bristol City

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

QPR

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Coventry

H

3

2

W

O

G

04 Nov

Stoke

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Barnsley

A

0

1

L

U

N


Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance as a guest.
Rotherham, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Coventry

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Dec

Brentford

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bournemouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Preston

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Nov

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Rotherham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

16%

32%

30%

23%

Rotherham

35%

44%

14%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.9 goals and Rotherham to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 1.2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.6 goals and Rotherham to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.86

0-1

4.24

1

5.56

2-3

1.89

2

3.77

4+

4.31

3

3.77

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.24

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.13

4.21

3.42

2-3 goals

1.68

3.81

7.07

4+ goals

1.77

4.14

5.16

Ov 1.5

1.70

3.91

6.35

Un 1.5

2.13

4.21

3.42

Ov 2.5

1.45

8.88

5.02

Un 2.5

2.32

2.57

5.57

Ov 3.5

1.77

4.14

5.16

Un 3.5

1.79

3.93

5.32

Goal-Goal

2.08

2.79

6.19

No Goal

1.53

8.09

4.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.55

7.25

4.61

NG+Un 2.5

1.68

8.09

4.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stoke vs Cardiff at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Stoke and Cardiff for Championship (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stoke

2.63

2.40

3.6

Draw

3.18

3.55

-3.3

Cardiff

2.81

3.32

-5.5

Over 2.5

2.28

2.23

1.0

Under 2.5

1.64

1.81

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stoke, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stoke in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance at home.
Stoke, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Sheffield Weds

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Nov

Norwich

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Huddersfield

H

4

3

W

O

G

07 Nov

Reading

A

3

0

W

O

N

04 Nov

Watford

A

2

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Rotherham

H

1

0

W

U

N


Cardiff in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance as a guest.
Cardiff, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Watford

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Huddersfield

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Luton

H

4

0

W

O

N

25 Nov

Coventry

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

Bristol City

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Barnsley

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stoke and the red line for guest team, Cardiff.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stoke

24%

38%

21%

16%

Cardiff

32%

39%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.14 goals and Cardiff to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.3 goals and Cardiff to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.41

1

4.63

2-3

2.04

2

3.85

4+

4.63

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.41

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.81

3.12

2-3 goals

2.43

3.34

3.46

4+ goals

2.32

3.79

3.27

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.47

3.40

Un 1.5

2.40

3.81

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.97

7.84

2.74

Un 2.5

2.91

2.47

3.98

Ov 3.5

2.32

3.79

3.27

Un 3.5

2.42

3.50

3.32

Goal-Goal

2.94

2.52

3.79

No Goal

2.00

6.30

2.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

6.46

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.30

2.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Huddersfield vs Sheffield Weds at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Sheffield Weds for Championship (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huddersfield

2.53

1.92

12.6

Draw

3.23

3.97

-5.8

Sheffield Weds

2.90

4.42

-11.9

Over 2.5

2.26

2.08

3.8

Under 2.5

1.65

1.92

-8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (12.6 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huddersfield in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance at home.
Huddersfield, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

QPR

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Cardiff

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Wycombe

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Stoke

A

3

4

L

O

G

07 Nov

Luton

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Bristol City

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Millwall

A

3

0

W

O

N


Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield Weds, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Norwich

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Reading

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Nov

Swansea

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Preston

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Millwall

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Bournemouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huddersfield and the red line for guest team, Sheffield Weds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huddersfield

22%

28%

28%

22%

Sheffield Weds

38%

40%

12%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.17 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.51 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Huddersfield to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.64

1

5.15

2-3

2.02

2

4.08

4+

4.37

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.64

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.40

3.16

2-3 goals

1.67

4.30

5.96

4+ goals

1.94

4.09

4.16

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.23

5.25

Un 1.5

2.57

3.40

3.16

Ov 2.5

1.54

8.55

4.32

Un 2.5

2.48

2.65

4.56

Ov 3.5

1.94

4.09

4.16

Un 3.5

1.91

3.93

4.53

Goal-Goal

2.14

2.86

5.43

No Goal

1.73

6.30

3.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

6.68

4.16

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

6.30

3.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Coventry vs Luton at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Coventry and Luton for Championship (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Coventry

2.28

2.23

1.0

Draw

3.28

3.69

-3.4

Luton

3.27

3.57

-2.6

Over 2.5

2.21

2.15

1.3

Under 2.5

1.69

1.87

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Coventry, Over 2.5 (1 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Coventry in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance at home.
Coventry, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Rotherham

H

3

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Nov

Cardiff

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Nov

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Watford

A

2

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Oct

Reading

H

3

2

W

O

G


Luton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance as a guest.
Luton, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Swansea

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Dec

Norwich

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Cardiff

A

0

4

L

O

N

24 Nov

Birmingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Blackburn

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Nov

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Brentford

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, Luton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Coventry

23%

34%

24%

18%

Luton

33%

38%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.29 goals and Luton to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.37 goals and Luton to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Coventry to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.56

1

4.93

2-3

2.03

2

3.95

4+

4.42

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.56

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.60

3.16