2020 12 08 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Eastleigh vs Wrexham at 08 December 2020
Aldershot vs Halifax at 08 December 2020
Altrincham vs Woking at 08 December 2020
Bromley vs Yeovil at 08 December 2020
Hartlepool vs King’s Lynn at 08 December 2020
Notts County vs Boreham Wood at 08 December 2020
Sutton vs Chesterfield at 08 December 2020
Torquay vs Maidenhead at 08 December 2020
Weymouth vs Dag and Red at 08 December 2020
Barnet vs Stockport at 08 December 2020


Eastleigh vs Wrexham at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Wrexham for Conference (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eastleigh

2.62

2.32

4.9

Draw

3.21

3.79

-4.8

Wrexham

2.61

3.28

-7.8

Over 2.5

1.98

2.00

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.82

2.00

-4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eastleigh in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Maidenhead

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Yeovil

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Wealdstone

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Aldershot

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Oct

Torquay

H

2

1

W

O

G


Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance as a guest.
Wrexham, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Torquay

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Dec

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bromley

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Sutton

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Hartlepool

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Wealdstone

A

3

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, Wrexham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eastleigh

24%

32%

24%

19%

Wrexham

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.23 goals and Wrexham to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.39 goals and Wrexham to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.86

1

5.43

2-3

2.06

2

4.15

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.45

2.98

2-3 goals

2.19

4.30

3.22

4+ goals

2.29

3.30

3.85

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.89

3.41

Un 1.5

2.67

3.45

2.98

Ov 2.5

1.93

6.48

3.04

Un 2.5

2.91

2.66

3.57

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.30

3.85

Un 3.5

2.34

3.96

3.13

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.75

3.87

No Goal

2.05

6.35

2.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.32

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.35

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aldershot vs Halifax at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Aldershot and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aldershot

2.42

2.40

0.3

Draw

3.26

3.73

-3.9

Halifax

2.78

3.16

-4.3

Over 2.5

1.99

2.00

-0.3

Under 2.5

1.79

2.00

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot (0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aldershot in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance at home.
Aldershot, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Dag and Red

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Chesterfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Wrexham

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Nov

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Notts County

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Torquay

H

1

4

L

O

G

17 Oct

Eastleigh

A

2

2

D

O

G


Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Weymouth

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Barnet

H

5

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Sutton

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Nov

Notts County

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Nov

Wealdstone

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aldershot and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aldershot

23%

35%

24%

18%

Halifax

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.28 goals and Halifax to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.37 goals and Halifax to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.94

1

5.41

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.68

3.10

2-3 goals

2.35

3.99

3.09

4+ goals

2.47

3.30

3.43

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.72

3.20

Un 1.5

2.47

3.68

3.10

Ov 2.5

2.07

6.48

2.76

Un 2.5

2.87

2.60

3.73

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.30

3.43

Un 3.5

2.39

3.88

3.09

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.70

3.55

No Goal

2.02

6.65

2.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

5.42

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.65

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Altrincham vs Woking at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

2.69

2.40

4.5

Draw

3.32

3.73

-3.3

Woking

2.46

3.16

-9.0

Over 2.5

1.95

2.00

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.85

2.00

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham (4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Wrexham

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Maidenhead

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Bromley

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Boreham Wood

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Chesterfield

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Nov

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Wealdstone

A

0

1

L

U

N


Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Barnet

H

4

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Dover Athletic

A

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Boreham Wood

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

23%

35%

24%

18%

Woking

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.2 goals and Woking to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.37 goals and Woking to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.95

1

5.43

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.94

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.67

3.09

2-3 goals

2.35

4.02

3.07

4+ goals

2.47

3.30

3.43

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.74

3.18

Un 1.5

2.48

3.67

3.09

Ov 2.5

2.07

6.49

2.75

Un 2.5

2.88

2.61

3.72

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.30

3.43

Un 3.5

2.39

3.90

3.07

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.71

3.55

No Goal

2.03

6.65

2.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

5.42

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.65

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bromley vs Yeovil at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bromley

2.15

2.39

-4.7

Draw

3.37

3.77

-3.1

Yeovil

3.11

3.15

-0.4

Over 2.5

1.85

2.02

-4.5

Under 2.5

1.94

1.98

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bromley in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

King’s Lynn

A

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Wrexham

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Maidenhead

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Nov

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Barnet

A

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Eastleigh

H

1

2

L

O

G


Yeovil in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Dec

Eastleigh

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Hartlepool

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Nov

Woking

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Sutton

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Dag and Red

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Oct

Wrexham

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bromley and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bromley

26%

31%

24%

19%

Yeovil

30%

35%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.47 goals and Yeovil to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Bromley to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.36 goals and Yeovil to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.80

1

5.38

2-3

2.07

2

4.15

4+

3.97

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-