2020 12 08 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Grimsby vs Newport County at 08 December 2020
Scunthorpe vs Colchester at 08 December 2020


Grimsby vs Newport County at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Grimsby and Newport County for League One (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Grimsby

4.56

3.14

9.9

Draw

3.53

3.80

-2.0

Newport County

1.79

2.38

-13.8

Over 2.5

2.05

2.01

1.0

Under 2.5

1.78

1.99

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Over 2.5 (9.9 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Grimsby in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance at home.
Grimsby, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Exeter

H

1

4

L

O

G

24 Nov

Crawley Town

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Tranmere

A

0

5

L

O

N

03 Nov

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Forest Green

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G


Newport County in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance as a guest.
Newport County, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Forest Green

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Port Vale

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Carlisle

A

2

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Harrogate

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Colchester

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Bradford

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Grimsby and the red line for guest team, Newport County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Grimsby

33%

30%

23%

14%

Newport County

21%

38%

26%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 0.82 goals and Newport County to score 1.58 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the guest team Newport County to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.19 goals and Newport County to score 1.36 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.92

1

5.38

2-3

2.03

2

4.05

4+

3.95

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.92

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.11

3.70

2.06

2-3 goals

3.02

4.39

2.27

4+ goals

2.75

3.09

3.20

Ov 1.5

2.92

3.84

2.52

Un 1.5

4.11

3.70

2.06

Ov 2.5

2.39

6.07

2.39

Un 2.5

4.61

2.77

2.37

Ov 3.5

2.75

3.09

3.20

Un 3.5

3.32

4.13

2.19

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.73

3.35

No Goal

3.38

6.81

1.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

5.10

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

3.58

6.81

1.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Scunthorpe vs Colchester at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Colchester for League One (England), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Scunthorpe

2.48

2.53

-0.8

Draw

3.30

3.64

-2.8

Colchester

2.84

3.03

-2.2

Over 2.5

2.08

2.11

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.76

1.90

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Leyton Orient

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Harrogate

A

5

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Morecambe

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Nov

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Nov

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Exeter

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N


Colchester in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Grimsby

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Exeter

A

1

6

L

O

G

20 Nov

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Stevenage

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Harrogate

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Scunthorpe

26%

35%

23%

16%

Colchester

29%

37%

24%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.25 goals and Colchester to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.3 goals and Colchester to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.72

1

5.13

2-3

2.00

2

3.91

4+

4.31

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.72

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.64

2.86

2-3 goals

2.52

3.90

2.88

4+ goals

2.42

3.18

3.68

Ov 1.5

2.49

3.64

3.10

Un 1.5

2.66

3.64

2.86

Ov 2.5

2.09

6.51

2.71

Un 2.5

3.12

2.60

3.39

Ov 3.5

2.42

3.18

3.68

Un 3.5

2.57

3.80

2.88

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.63

3.60

No Goal

2.20

6.36

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

5.49

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

6.36

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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