2020 12 08 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Almeria vs Zaragoza at 09 December 2020
Sabadell vs Alcorcon at 09 December 2020
Girona vs Logrones at 10 December 2020


Almeria vs Zaragoza at 09 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Almeria and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 09 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Almeria

1.86

1.76

3.1

Draw

3.15

4.07

-7.2

Zaragoza

4.89

5.38

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.56

2.16

7.2

Under 2.5

1.53

1.86

-11.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Almeria, Over 2.5 (3.1 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Almeria in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Almeria in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Almeria’s performance at home.
Almeria, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Almeria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Alcorcon

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Dec

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Nov

Oviedo

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Nov

Tenerife

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Nov

Albacete

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Mirandes

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Vallecano

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Nov

Sabadell

A

2

1

W

O

G


Zaragoza in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance as a guest.
Zaragoza, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Fuenlabrada

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Castellon

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Nov

Espanol

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Nov

Vallecano

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Ponferradina

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Nov

Oviedo

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Nov

Tenerife

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Nov

Girona

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Almeria and the red line for guest team, Zaragoza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Almeria

17%

33%

26%

23%

Zaragoza

44%

35%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.36 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.56 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.55

1

4.85

2-3

1.96

2

3.91

4+

4.83

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.55

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.93

3.71

4.70

2-3 goals

1.66

4.39

5.92

4+ goals

1.80

3.91

5.31

Ov 1.5

1.70

4.24

5.73

Un 1.5

1.93

3.71

4.70

Ov 2.5

1.49

8.68

4.65

Un 2.5

2.07

2.80

6.26

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.91

5.31

Un 3.5

1.75

4.12

5.42

Goal-Goal

2.25

2.74

5.26

No Goal

1.48

7.04

5.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

6.55

3.94

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

7.04

4.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sabadell vs Alcorcon at 09 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sabadell and Alcorcon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 09 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sabadell

2.76

2.32

6.9

Draw

2.88

3.55

-6.6

Alcorcon

2.83

3.48

-6.6

Over 2.5

2.60

2.40

3.2

Under 2.5

1.48

1.72

-9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sabadell, Over 2.5 (6.9 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sabadell in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance at home.
Sabadell, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Oviedo

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Dec

Tenerife

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Fuenlabrada

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Nov

Sp Gijon

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Nov

Las Palmas

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Nov

Logrones

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Malaga

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Nov

Almeria

H

1

2

L

O

G


Alcorcon in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance as a guest.
Alcorcon, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Almeria

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Dec

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Nov

Girona

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Castellon

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Nov

Lugo

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Nov

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Fuenlabrada

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Nov

Ponferradina

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sabadell and the red line for guest team, Alcorcon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sabadell

26%

35%

25%

14%

Alcorcon

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.02 goals and Alcorcon to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.26 goals and Alcorcon to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.17

1

4.50

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.17

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.39

3.25

2-3 goals

2.18

3.86

3.53

4+ goals

2.41

3.13

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.63

3.59

Un 1.5

2.52

3.39

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.97

2.99

Un 2.5

2.74

2.63

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.13

3.76

Un 3.5

2.30

3.66

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.52

4.03

No Goal

2.00

5.65

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.78

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.65

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Girona vs Logrones at 10 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Girona and Logrones for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 10 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Girona

1.71

2.32

-15.4

Draw

3.40

3.55

-1.2

Logrones

5.26

3.48

9.7

Over 2.5

2.45

2.40

0.9

Under 2.5

1.55

1.72

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Logrones, Over 2.5 (9.7 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Girona in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance at home.
Girona, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Albacete

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Malaga

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Espanol

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Nov

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

2

D

O

G


Logrones in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance as a guest.
Logrones, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Vallecano

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Ponferradina

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Mallorca

A

0

4

L

O

N

26 Nov

Albacete

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Tenerife

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Nov

Sabadell

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Cartagena

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Nov

Alcorcon

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Logrones.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Girona

26%

35%

25%

14%

Logrones

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.45 goals and Logrones to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and the home team Girona to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.26 goals and Logrones to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.17

1

4.50

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.17

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.39

3.25

2-3 goals

2.18

3.86

3.53

4+ goals

2.41

3.13

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.63

3.59

Un 1.5

2.52

3.39

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.97

2.99

Un 2.5

2.74

2.63

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.13

3.76

Un 3.5

2.30

3.66

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.52

4.03

No Goal

2.00

5.65

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.78

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.65

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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