2020 12 08 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cremonese vs Brescia at 08 December 2020
Pisa vs Ascoli at 08 December 2020


Cremonese vs Brescia at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cremonese and Brescia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cremonese

2.31

2.48

-3.0

Draw

3.03

3.47

-4.2

Brescia

3.29

3.25

0.4

Over 2.5

2.27

2.34

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.63

1.75

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brescia (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cremonese in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cremonese in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cremonese’s performance at home.
Cremonese, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cremonese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Reggiana

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Nov

Salernitana

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Vicenza

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Nov

Frosinone

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Oct

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Oct

Venezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Pisa

A

1

1

D

U

G


Brescia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance as a guest.
Brescia, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Reggina

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Venezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Nov

Cosenza

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Virtus Entella

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Oct

Chievo

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Oct

Lecce

H

3

0

W

O

N

04 Oct

Cittadella

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cremonese and the red line for guest team, Brescia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cremonese

25%

38%

24%

13%

Brescia

32%

40%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.25 goals and Brescia to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.24 goals and Brescia to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.36

1

4.57

2-3

1.98

2

3.65

4+

5.15

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.36

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.77

3.01

2-3 goals

2.42

3.34

3.48

4+ goals

2.62

3.34

3.13

Ov 1.5

2.47

3.34

3.38

Un 1.5

2.48

3.77

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.04

7.33

2.67

Un 2.5

2.93

2.49

3.89

Ov 3.5

2.62

3.34

3.13

Un 3.5

2.44

3.49

3.29

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.44

3.81

No Goal

2.07

6.15

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

6.21

2.69

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.15

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pisa vs Ascoli at 08 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pisa and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 08 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pisa

1.98

2.48

-10.2

Draw

3.30

3.72

-3.4

Ascoli

3.87

3.06

6.8

Over 2.5

2.00

2.16

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.81

1.86

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ascoli (6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pisa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance at home.
Pisa, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Spal

A

0

4

L

O

N

28 Nov

Cittadella

H

1

4

L

O

G

22 Nov

Reggina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Vicenza

A

4

4

D

O

G

23 Oct

Empoli

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Salernitana

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Oct

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G


Ascoli in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Dec

Pescara

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Venezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Virtus Entella

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Pordenone

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Oct

Reggiana

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Frosinone

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Lecce

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pisa and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pisa

23%

42%

20%

15%

Ascoli

35%

30%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.5 goals and Ascoli to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Pisa to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.27 goals and Ascoli to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.41

1

4.69

2-3

2.10

2

4.12

4+

4.35

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.41

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.03

3.66

4.25

2-3 goals

2.62

3.84

2.80

4+ goals

2.99

3.54

2.61

Ov 1.5

2.73

3.74

2.74

Un 1.5

2.03

3.66

4.25

Ov 2.5

2.45

7.12

2.22

Un 2.5

2.50

2.63

4.54

Ov 3.5

2.99

3.54

2.61

Un 3.5

2.36

3.77

3.22

Goal-Goal

3.66

2.66

2.85

No Goal

1.87

6.21

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.76

5.82

2.15

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

6.21

3.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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