2020 12 08 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC at 09 December 2020


Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC at 09 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 09 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Asteras Tripolis

1.74

2.16

-11.2

Draw

3.41

3.28

1.2

Volos NFC

5.11

4.33

3.5

Over 2.5

2.25

3.38

-14.9

Under 2.5

1.63

1.42

9.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 3.5 %, 9.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

PAOK

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

AEK

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Nov

Apollon

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Lamia

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Larisa

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Panetolikos

A

1

1

D

U

G


Volos NFC in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance as a guest.
Volos NFC, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Olympiakos

A

1

4

L

O

G

30 Nov

Apollon

A

3

3

D

O

G

23 Nov

OFI Crete

H

1

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Panathinaikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Oct

Lamia

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

PAOK

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, Volos NFC.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Asteras Tripolis

33%

32%

25%

10%

Volos NFC

50%

34%

10%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.51 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.12 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.72 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.84 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.02

0-1

2.28

1

3.66

2-3

2.21

2

3.76

4+

9.26

3

5.38

Ov 1.5

1.79

4

12.82

Un 1.5

2.28

5

41.67

Ov 2.5

3.40

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.42

Gg

3.01

Ov 3.5

9.26

NoG

1.50

Un 3.5

1.12

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

2.64

3.92

2-3 goals

1.75

4.19

5.26

4+ goals

2.45

3.48

3.27

Ov 1.5

1.85

4.03

4.71

Un 1.5

2.73

2.64

3.92

Ov 2.5

1.65

9.48

3.46

Un 2.5

2.47

2.57

4.83

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.48

3.27

Un 3.5

2.13

3.25

4.50

Goal-Goal

2.61

2.39

5.03

No Goal

1.99

4.02

4.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.76

7.23

3.39

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

4.02

4.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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