2020 12 10 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Promitheas at 10 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Promitheas at 10 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and Promitheas for EuroCup, which will take place on 10 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

1.27

1.81

Promitheas

3.75

2.23

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana HC

-7.5

-2.50

Promitheas HC

+7.5

2.50

Point Line

162.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

87

65

4

2

W 4

93

65

Nov 11

A

Bursaspor

W

97

80

3

2

W 3

80

77

Nov 9

H

Bursaspor

W

104

88

2

2

W 2

86

85

Nov 4

H

Nanterre 92

W

75

63

1

2

W 1

76

64

Oct 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

51

61

0

2

L 1

54

61

Sep 30

A

Nanterre 92

L

76

80

0

1

L 0

77

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

A

Nanterre 92

L

70

91

2

3

L 2

71

93

Nov 11

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

80

89

2

2

L 1

85

89

Oct 21

H

Nanterre 92

W

88

72

2

1

W 2

89

73

Oct 13

A

Bursaspor

W

93

84

1

1

W 1

77

81

Oct 6

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

51

78

0

1

L 0

54

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana (in the first graph) and by Promitheas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana will expected to score 80 points and the Promitheas 73 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

Promitheas

FG%

0.51

0.52

ASS

16.20

18.80

DRB

25.50

24.00

AST-TO

1.67

1.45

TRB

36.80

30.60

FTM

9.80

15.40

BL

2.20

4.20

FTA

13.50

19.40

PF-Fewer

15.70

18.00

ST

6.80

4.60

TO-Fewer

9.70

13.00

Ftper

0.73

0.79

ORBper

0.44

0.27

ORB

11.30

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *