2020 12 10 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Baskonia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 10 December 2020
Alba Berlin vs Fenerbahce at 10 December 2020
Valencia vs Anadolu Efes at 10 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Zenit at 10 December 2020
Crvena Zvezda vs Olympiacos at 10 December 2020
Bayern Munich vs Villeurbanne at 11 December 2020
Panathinaikos vs Zalgiris at 11 December 2020
Khimki vs CSKA Moscow at 11 December 2020
Barcelona vs Olimpia Milano at 11 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Baskonia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and Maccabi Tel Aviv for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Baskonia

1.77

1.40

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.1

3.51

Baskonia HC

-1.5

-6.50

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+1.5

6.50

Point Line

156.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

A

Anadolu Efes

W

77

59

6

5

W 2

79

59

Nov 26

A

Olympiacos

W

90

76

5

5

W 1

92

78

Nov 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

4

5

L 1

77

81

Nov 19

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

93

72

4

4

W 2

86

72

Nov 17

H

Fenerbahce

W

86

68

3

4

W 1

87

72

Nov 12

A

CSKA Moscow

L

86

89

2

4

L 3

86

85

Nov 5

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

86

88

2

3

L 2

87

92

Oct 30

H

FC Barcelona

L

71

72

2

2

L 1

77

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

76

4

8

W 1

83

80

Nov 26

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

85

86

3

8

L 3

83

81

Nov 20

A

Valencia Basket

L

80

82

3

7

L 2

77

78

Nov 18

A

Real Madrid

L

63

79

3

6

L 1

63

76

Nov 12

H

Zalgiris

W

85

57

3

5

W 1

83

58

Nov 5

A

Anadolu Efes

L

89

91

2

5

L 2

91

91

Oct 29

H

Fenerbahce

L

65

75

2

4

L 1

66

80

Oct 23

A

BC Khimki

W

89

87

2

3

W 1

79

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Baskonia (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Tel Aviv in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Baskonia will expected to score 80 points and the Maccabi Tel Aviv 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Baskonia

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

19.30

15.80

DRB

22.10

24.60

AST-TO

1.28

1.13

TRB

32.30

33.30

FTM

14.30

11.70

BL

2.60

2.30

FTA

19.90

15.50

PF-Fewer

18.70

19.70

ST

7.90

7.30

TO-Fewer

15.10

14.00

Ftper

0.72

0.75

ORBper

0.46

0.36

ORB

10.20

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Alba Berlin vs Fenerbahce at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Fenerbahce for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Alba Berlin

3.65

1.59

Fenerbahce

1.3

2.69

Alba Berlin HC

+7.5

-4.00

Fenerbahce HC

-7.5

4.00

Point Line

158.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

A

Valencia Basket

W

100

92

4

7

W 1

96

88

Dec 1

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

55

75

3

7

L 1

54

70

Nov 26

H

BC Khimki

W

100

80

3

6

W 1

88

80

Nov 20

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

66

73

2

6

L 1

72

77

Nov 18

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

76

75

2

5

W 1

77

79

Nov 12

A

Olympiacos

L

71

75

1

5

L 2

72

77

Nov 5

H

FC Barcelona

L

67

103

1

4

L 1

73

100

Oct 16

A

CSKA Moscow

W

93

88

1

3

W 1

93

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

73

65

5

7

W 1

80

68

Nov 27

H

Valencia Basket

L

86

90

4

7

L 4

83

86

Nov 20

A

Real Madrid

L

74

94

4

6

L 3

74

90

Nov 17

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

68

86

4

5

L 2

72

84

Nov 12

A

FC Barcelona

L

55

97

4

4

L 1

60

94

Nov 6

H

BC Khimki

W

83

71

4

3

W 2

74

71

Oct 29

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

75

65

3

3

W 1

75

64

Oct 22

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

68

82

2

3

L 3

63

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Alba Berlin (in the first graph) and by Fenerbahce in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Alba Berlin will expected to score 77 points and the Fenerbahce 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Alba Berlin

Fenerbahce

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

19.20

17.80

DRB

19.10

21.80

AST-TO

1.36

1.34

TRB

28.30

28.00

FTM

10.60

10.30

BL

2.60

1.60

FTA

13.10

12.20

PF-Fewer

19.40

18.60

ST

7.50

6.30

TO-Fewer

14.10

13.30

Ftper

0.81

0.85

ORBper

0.48

0.28

ORB

9.20

6.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Valencia vs Anadolu Efes at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Anadolu Efes for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

2.27

1.37

Anadolu Efes

1.67

3.68

Valencia HC

+2.5

-6.50

Anadolu Efes HC

-2.5

6.50

Point Line

162.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

85

7

5

L 2

79

89

Dec 3

H

Alba Berlin

L

92

100

7

4

L 1

86

102

Nov 27

A

Fenerbahce

W

90

86

7

3

W 3

91

91

Nov 20

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

82

80

6

3

W 2

82

79

Nov 17

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

95

83

5

3

W 1

88

82

Nov 13

A

Bayern Munich

L

79

90

4

3

L 1

80

89

Nov 6

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

86

81

4

2

W 1

84

76

Oct 29

A

CSKA Moscow

L

75

84

3

2

L 1

75

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

72

68

7

5

W 1

73

71

Dec 4

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

59

77

6

5

L 1

62

75

Nov 26

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

75

64

6

4

W 2

77

68

Nov 19

A

BC Khimki

W

105

77

5

4

W 1

93

77

Nov 17

H

Bayern Munich

L

71

74

4

4

L 1

72

73

Nov 13

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

80

77

4

3

W 3

74

76

Nov 5

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

91

89

3

3

W 2

90

88

Oct 30

A

Olympiacos

W

84

79

2

3

W 1

86

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by Anadolu Efes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 80 points and the Anadolu Efes 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Valencia

Anadolu Efes

FG%

0.57

0.56

ASS

20.30

18.30

DRB

20.20

20.00

AST-TO

1.74

1.66

TRB

27.20

25.90

FTM

13.10

12.00

BL

1.70

3.20

FTA

15.90

15.30

PF-Fewer

18.80

17.30

ST

6.50

6.80

TO-Fewer

11.70

11.00

Ftper

0.82

0.78

ORBper

0.35

0.30

ORB

7.00

5.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Madrid vs Zenit at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Zenit for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Madrid

1.28

1.18

Zenit

3.85

6.51

Real Madrid HC

-7.5

-9.50

Zenit HC

+7.5

9.50

Point Line

155.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

91

84

7

5

W 1

92

88

Nov 26

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

74

6

5

L 1

73

71

Nov 20

H

Fenerbahce

W

94

74

6

4

W 5

95

78

Nov 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

79

63

5

4

W 4

78

62

Nov 13

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

73

67

4

4

W 3

75

71

Nov 6

A

Zalgiris

W

93

90

3

4

W 2

91

91

Oct 29

H

Bayern Munich

W

100

82

2

4

W 1

101

81

Oct 23

A

FC Barcelona

L

72

79

1

4

L 2

78

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

A

Valencia Basket

W

85

72

7

3

W 1

82

68

Dec 3

H

Fenerbahce

L

65

73

6

3

L 1

66

77

Nov 26

A

Zalgiris

W

83

75

6

2

W 3

81

76

Nov 23

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

77

70

5

2

W 2

82

68

Nov 20

A

Alba Berlin

W

73

66

4

2

W 1

68

68

Nov 17

H

BC Khimki

L

83

88

3

2

L 1

74

88

Nov 13

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

66

53

3

1

W 1

67

56

Nov 5

H

Olympiacos

L

66

75

2

1

L 1

67

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Madrid (in the first graph) and by Zenit in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Madrid will expected to score 77 points and the Zenit 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Madrid

Zenit

FG%

0.57

0.52

ASS

18.80

15.10

DRB

21.00

18.90

AST-TO

1.66

1.34

TRB

29.10

26.50

FTM

11.80

11.80

BL

3.40

2.50

FTA

14.80

15.50

PF-Fewer

19.50

20.90

ST

6.30

5.60

TO-Fewer

11.30

11.30

Ftper

0.80

0.76

ORBper

0.39

0.40

ORB

8.10

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Crvena Zvezda vs Olympiacos at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Crvena Zvezda and Olympiacos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Crvena Zvezda

1.84

2.18

Olympiacos

2.18

1.85

Crvena Zvezda HC

-1.5

2.00

Olympiacos HC

+1.5

-2.00

Point Line

150.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

76

81

4

8

L 3

76

80

Nov 26

H

Anadolu Efes

L

64

75

4

7

L 2

66

75

Nov 20

A

FC Barcelona

L

65

76

4

6

L 1

71

74

Nov 18

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia