2020 12 11 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Rotherham vs Bristol City at 12 December 2020
Blackburn vs Norwich at 12 December 2020
Wycombe vs Coventry at 12 December 2020
Sheffield Weds vs Barnsley at 12 December 2020
QPR vs Reading at 12 December 2020
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Brentford at 12 December 2020
Middlesbrough vs Millwall at 12 December 2020
Luton vs Preston at 12 December 2020
Derby vs Stoke at 12 December 2020
Bournemouth vs Huddersfield at 12 December 2020
Birmingham vs Watford at 12 December 2020
Cardiff vs Swansea at 12 December 2020


Rotherham vs Bristol City at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

2.90

2.81

1.1

Draw

3.28

3.55

-2.3

Bristol City

2.48

2.76

-4.1

Over 2.5

2.15

2.28

-2.7

Under 2.5

1.72

1.78

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham (1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Coventry

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Dec

Brentford

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bournemouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Preston

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Nov

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N


Bristol City in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Dec

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

QPR

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Watford

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Cardiff

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

30%

38%

17%

15%

Bristol City

30%

37%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.1 goals and Bristol City to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.17 goals and Bristol City to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.21

1

4.50

2-3

2.12

2

4.03

4+

4.65

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.21

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

3.47

2.84

2-3 goals

3.00

3.41

2.68

4+ goals

2.50

3.98

2.87

Ov 1.5

2.82

3.57

2.73

Un 1.5

2.79

3.47

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.27

8.11

2.29

Un 2.5

3.46

2.46

3.29

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.98

2.87

Un 3.5

2.91

3.43

2.74

Goal-Goal

3.32

2.54

3.28

No Goal

2.45

5.67

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.38

6.48

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

5.67

2.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Blackburn vs Norwich at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Norwich for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

2.60

2.42

2.9

Draw

3.47

3.64

-1.3

Norwich

2.63

3.22

-7.0

Over 2.5

1.79

2.11

-8.5

Under 2.5

2.05

1.90

3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn, Under 2.5 (2.9 %, 3.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackburn in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance at home.
Blackburn, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Dec

Bristol City

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Brentford

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Dec

Millwall

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Barnsley

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Preston

A

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

QPR

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N


Norwich in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance as a guest.
Norwich, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Dec

Nott’m Forest

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Sheffield Weds

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Luton

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Stoke

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

Middlesbrough

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Swansea

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Millwall

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

23%

37%

23%

16%

Norwich

31%

36%

23%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.35 goals and Norwich to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.33 goals and Norwich to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.70

1

5.05

2-3

2.00

2

3.89

4+

4.31

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.70

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.75

3.21

2-3 goals

2.45

3.75

3.08

4+ goals

2.39

3.31

3.57

Ov 1.5

2.43

3.60

3.22

Un 1.5

2.37

3.75

3.21

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.77

2.72

Un 2.5

2.85

2.57

3.85

Ov 3.5

2.39

3.31

3.57

Un 3.5

2.42

3.75

3.13

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.62

3.56

No Goal

1.99

6.53

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

5.69

2.67

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.53

2.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wycombe vs Coventry at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Coventry for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

3.14

2.44

9.1

Draw

3.28

3.70

-3.5

Coventry

2.32

3.12

-11.1

Over 2.5

2.14

2.16

-0.4

Under 2.5

1.72

1.86

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (9.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Preston

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Dec

Stoke

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Huddersfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Brentford

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Nov

Birmingham

A

2

1

W

O

G


Coventry in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance as a guest.
Coventry, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 12.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Luton

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Rotherham

H

3

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Nov

Cardiff

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Nov

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Watford

A

2

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Coventry.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

29%

34%

18%

20%

Coventry

35%

33%

19%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.04 goals and Coventry to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.29 goals and Coventry to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.21

1

4.74

2-3

2.18

2

4.41

4+

4.35

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.21

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.09

3.32

2-3 goals

2.41

4.20

2.88

4+ goals

2.23

3.83

3.43

Ov 1.5

2.35

4.07

3.04

Un 1.5

2.67

3.09

3.32

Ov 2.5

2.00

7.68

2.71

Un 2.5

3.01

2.57

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.83

3.43

Un 3.5

2.51

3.67

3.04

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.73

3.50

No Goal

2.16

5.33

2.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

5.88

2.67

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

5.33

2.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sheffield Weds vs Barnsley at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Barnsley for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

2.59

2.25

5.8

Draw

3.14

3.66

-4.5

Barnsley

2.86

3.55

-6.8

Over 2.5

2.40

2.21

3.6

Under 2.5

1.58

1.82

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (5.8 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Norwich

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Reading

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Nov

Swansea

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Preston

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Millwall

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Bournemouth

H

1

0

W

U

N


Barnsley in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance as a guest.
Barnsley, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Dec

Wycombe

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Dec

Bournemouth

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Dec

Birmingham

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Brentford

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Derby

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Cardiff

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Barnsley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

28%

32%

19%

21%

Barnsley

37%

37%

13%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.11 goals and Barnsley to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.34 goals and Barnsley to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Sheffield Weds to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.12

1

4.55

2-3

2.20

2

4.41

4+

4.46

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.12

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.18

3.12

2-3 goals

2.06

3.82