2020 12 11 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Boreham Wood vs Aldershot at 12 December 2020
Yeovil vs Notts County at 12 December 2020
Woking vs Hartlepool at 12 December 2020
Wealdstone vs Weymouth at 12 December 2020
Stockport vs Sutton at 12 December 2020
Solihull vs Bromley at 12 December 2020
King’s Lynn vs Torquay at 12 December 2020
Chesterfield vs Barnet at 12 December 2020
Dag and Red vs Altrincham at 12 December 2020


Boreham Wood vs Aldershot at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Boreham Wood and Aldershot for Conference (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boreham Wood

1.85

2.87

-19.2

Draw

3.45

3.61

-1.3

Aldershot

4.03

2.66

12.8

Over 2.5

2.15

1.99

3.7

Under 2.5

1.70

2.01

-9.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot, Over 2.5 (12.8 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boreham Wood in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance at home.
Boreham Wood, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Hartlepool

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Nov

Bromley

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Torquay

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Nov

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Solihull

A

0

1

L

U

N


Aldershot in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance as a guest.
Aldershot, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Halifax

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Dag and Red

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Chesterfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Wrexham

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Nov

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Notts County

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Torquay

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boreham Wood and the red line for guest team, Aldershot.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boreham Wood

22%

43%

22%

13%

Aldershot

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.47 goals and Aldershot to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.26 goals and Aldershot to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.86

0-1

4.15

1

5.41

2-3

1.98

2

3.91

4+

3.92

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.15

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.72

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.39

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.19

4.30

3.21

2-3 goals

3.12

3.44

2.58

4+ goals

3.36

3.45

2.43

Ov 1.5

3.19

3.44

2.52

Un 1.5

2.19

4.30

3.21

Ov 2.5

2.75

6.81

2.04

Un 2.5

3.01

2.45

3.85

Ov 3.5

3.36

3.45

2.43

Un 3.5

2.74

3.67

2.75

Goal-Goal

3.88

2.63

2.76

No Goal

2.12

7.48

2.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.90

5.88

2.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

7.48

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Yeovil vs Notts County at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Yeovil

3.02

3.25

-2.3

Draw

3.34

3.64

-2.5

Notts County

2.22

2.40

-3.4

Over 2.5

1.99

1.99

0.0

Under 2.5

1.80

2.01

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Yeovil in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Eastleigh

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Hartlepool

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Nov

Woking

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Sutton

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Dag and Red

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G


Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Dag and Red

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Nov

Wealdstone

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Chesterfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

17 Nov

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Yeovil

25%

44%

20%

11%

Notts County

23%

33%

25%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.08 goals and Notts County to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.18 goals and Notts County to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.12

1

5.41

2-3

1.98

2

3.92

4+

3.97

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.12

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.36

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

4.19

2.93

2-3 goals

3.58

3.48

2.31

4+ goals

3.88

3.55

2.17

Ov 1.5

3.67

3.50

2.26

Un 1.5

2.38

4.19

2.93

Ov 2.5

3.16

7.07

1.85

Un 2.5

3.34

2.45

3.41

Ov 3.5

3.88

3.55

2.17

Un 3.5

3.08

3.68

2.48

Goal-Goal

4.33

2.67

2.54

No Goal

2.42

7.31

2.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.24

6.07

1.90

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

7.31

2.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Woking vs Hartlepool at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Woking

2.69

2.46

3.5

Draw

3.31

3.70

-3.2

Hartlepool

2.47

3.10

-8.2

Over 2.5

1.94

2.00

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.84

2.00

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking (3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Barnet

H

4

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Dover Athletic

A

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Boreham Wood

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Solihull

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Yeovil

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Wrexham

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Torquay

H

0

5

L

O

N

27 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Woking

23%

36%

24%

17%

Hartlepool

29%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.2 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.35 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.97

1

5.41

2-3

2.03

2

4.05

4+

3.92

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.97

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.42

3.76

3.11

2-3 goals

2.42

3.90

3.02

4+ goals

2.55

3.31

3.27

Ov 1.5

2.47

3.68

3.10

Un 1.5

2.42

3.76

3.11

Ov 2.5

2.14

6.49

2.65

Un 2.5

2.88

2.59

3.75

Ov 3.5

2.55

3.31

3.27

Un 3.5

2.42

3.85

3.05

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.69

3.43

No Goal

2.03

6.76

2.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

5.45

2.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.76

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wealdstone vs Weymouth at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Weymouth for Conference (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

2.06

2.20

-3.1

Draw

3.52

3.86

-2.5

Weymouth

3.22

3.50

-2.5

Over 2.5

1.72

2.00

-8.1

Under 2.5

2.13

2.00

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Dec

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Notts County

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Sutton

H

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Eastleigh

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Nov

Halifax

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Altrincham

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

3

2

W

O

G


Weymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance as a guest.
Weymouth, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Dag and Red

H

2

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Halifax

H

1

5

L

O

G

28 Nov

Chesterfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Stockport

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Bromley

A

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

King’s Lynn

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Barnet

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Weymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

25%

28%

25%

22%

Weymouth

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.61 goals and Weymouth to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Wealdstone to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.43 goals and Weymouth to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Wealdstone to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.80

1

5.49

2-3

2.07

2

4.26

4+

3.91

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.80

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

3.25