# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Boreham Wood vs Aldershot at 12 December 2020**** Yeovil vs Notts County at 12 December 2020**** Woking vs Hartlepool at 12 December 2020**** Wealdstone vs Weymouth at 12 December 2020**** Stockport vs Sutton at 12 December 2020**** Solihull vs Bromley at 12 December 2020**** King’s Lynn vs Torquay at 12 December 2020**** Chesterfield vs Barnet at 12 December 2020**** Dag and Red vs Altrincham at 12 December 2020**

###
Boreham Wood vs Aldershot at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Boreham Wood** and **Aldershot** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Boreham Wood |
1.85 |
2.87 |
-19.2 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.61 |
-1.3 |

Aldershot |
4.03 |
2.66 |
12.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
1.99 |
3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.01 |
-9.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aldershot, Over 2.5 (12.8 %, 3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Boreham Wood** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boreham Wood** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance** at home**.

Boreham Wood,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Bromley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Nov |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Aldershot** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aldershot** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance** as a guest**.

Aldershot,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Notts County |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Boreham Wood** and the red line for guest team, **Aldershot. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Boreham Wood |
22% |
43% |
22% |
13% |

Aldershot |
26% |
34% |
24% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Boreham Wood** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Aldershot** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Boreham Wood ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Boreham Wood** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Aldershot** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.39 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
4.30 |
3.21 |

2-3 goals |
3.12 |
3.44 |
2.58 |

4+ goals |
3.36 |
3.45 |
2.43 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.19 |
3.44 |
2.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
4.30 |
3.21 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |
6.81 |
2.04 |

Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
2.45 |
3.85 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.36 |
3.45 |
2.43 |

Un 3.5 |
2.74 |
3.67 |
2.75 |

Goal-Goal |
3.88 |
2.63 |
2.76 |

No Goal |
2.12 |
7.48 |
2.54 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.90 |
5.88 |
2.06 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
7.48 |
2.71 |

####
Go to Top

###
Yeovil vs Notts County at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Yeovil** and **Notts County** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Yeovil |
3.02 |
3.25 |
-2.3 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.64 |
-2.5 |

Notts County |
2.22 |
2.40 |
-3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.99 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.01 |
-5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Yeovil** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Yeovil** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance** at home**.

Yeovil,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Dec |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Woking |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Sutton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Oct |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Notts County** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Notts County** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance** as a guest**.

Notts County,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Chesterfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Yeovil** and the red line for guest team, **Notts County. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Yeovil |
25% |
44% |
20% |
11% |

Notts County |
23% |
33% |
25% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Yeovil** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Notts County** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Yeovil** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Notts County** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.36 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.38 |
4.19 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
3.58 |
3.48 |
2.31 |

4+ goals |
3.88 |
3.55 |
2.17 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.67 |
3.50 |
2.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.38 |
4.19 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.16 |
7.07 |
1.85 |

Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
2.45 |
3.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |
3.55 |
2.17 |

Un 3.5 |
3.08 |
3.68 |
2.48 |

Goal-Goal |
4.33 |
2.67 |
2.54 |

No Goal |
2.42 |
7.31 |
2.22 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.24 |
6.07 |
1.90 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
7.31 |
2.42 |

####
Go to Top

###
Woking vs Hartlepool at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Woking** and **Hartlepool** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Woking |
2.69 |
2.46 |
3.5 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.70 |
-3.2 |

Hartlepool |
2.47 |
3.10 |
-8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.00 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.00 |
-4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Woking (3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Woking** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Woking** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance** at home**.

Woking,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Barnet |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Dover Athletic |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Hartlepool** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hartlepool** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance** as a guest**.

Hartlepool,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Dec |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Yeovil |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Woking** and the red line for guest team, **Hartlepool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Woking |
23% |
36% |
24% |
17% |

Hartlepool |
29% |
35% |
23% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Woking** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Hartlepool** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Woking** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Hartlepool** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.42 |
3.76 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.42 |
3.90 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.55 |
3.31 |
3.27 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.68 |
3.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.76 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.49 |
2.65 |

Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.59 |
3.75 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.55 |
3.31 |
3.27 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.85 |
3.05 |

Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.69 |
3.43 |

No Goal |
2.03 |
6.76 |
2.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.45 |
2.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.76 |
2.80 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wealdstone vs Weymouth at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wealdstone** and **Weymouth** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wealdstone |
2.06 |
2.20 |
-3.1 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.86 |
-2.5 |

Weymouth |
3.22 |
3.50 |
-2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.00 |
-8.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.00 |
3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wealdstone** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wealdstone** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance** at home**.

Wealdstone,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Sutton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Nov |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Weymouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Weymouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Weymouth,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Chesterfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Oct |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wealdstone** and the red line for guest team, **Weymouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wealdstone |
25% |
28% |
25% |
22% |

Weymouth |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wealdstone** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Weymouth** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the home team **Wealdstone ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wealdstone** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Weymouth** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Wealdstone ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.89 |
3.25 |