2020 12 11 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Heracles vs For Sittard at 11 December 2020
Groningen vs Waalwijk at 12 December 2020
FC Emmen vs Den Haag at 12 December 2020
Ajax vs Zwolle at 12 December 2020
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam at 13 December 2020
VVV Venlo vs Feyenoord at 13 December 2020
Vitesse vs Heerenveen at 13 December 2020
PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht at 13 December 2020
Twente vs AZ Alkmaar at 13 December 2020


Heracles vs For Sittard at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and For Sittard for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Heracles

1.77

1.92

-4.4

Draw

4.04

4.05

-0.1

For Sittard

4.04

4.31

-1.6

Over 2.5

1.59

1.91

-10.5

Under 2.5

2.38

2.10

5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Heracles in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance at home.
Heracles, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Feyenoord

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Ajax

A

0

5

L

O

N

07 Nov

VVV Venlo

A

2

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Utrecht

H

4

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Sparta Rotterdam

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Waalwijk

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Vitesse

A

0

3

L

O

N


For Sittard in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance as a guest.
For Sittard, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Willem II

H

3

2

W

O

G

29 Nov

Vitesse

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Feyenoord

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Nov

Zwolle

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Ajax

A

2

5

L

O

G

25 Oct

Groningen

H

1

3

L

O

G

18 Oct

FC Emmen

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, For Sittard.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Heracles

19%

32%

21%

28%

For Sittard

37%

34%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.94 goals and For Sittard to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.58 goals and For Sittard to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.92

1

5.43

2-3

2.10

2

4.50

4+

3.72

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.99

Un 1.5

3.92

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.91

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.10

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.72

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.59

3.86

2-3 goals

1.85

4.37

4.33

4+ goals

1.83

4.01

4.89

Ov 1.5

1.84

4.23

4.52

Un 1.5

2.16

3.59

3.86

Ov 2.5

1.61

7.81

3.99

Un 2.5

2.42

2.65

4.77

Ov 3.5

1.83

4.01

4.89

Un 3.5

1.95

4.06

4.15

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.88

4.57

No Goal

1.63

6.94

4.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.81

5.94

3.59

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.94

3.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Groningen vs Waalwijk at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Groningen and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Groningen

1.48

1.81

-12.3

Draw

4.34

4.37

-0.2

Waalwijk

6.39

4.59

6.1

Over 2.5

1.74

1.54

7.5

Under 2.5

2.12

2.84

-12.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (6.1 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Groningen in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance at home.
Groningen, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Willem II

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Vitesse

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Feyenoord

A

0

2

L

U

N

31 Oct

VVV Venlo

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

For Sittard

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Utrecht

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Ajax

H

1

0

W

U

N


Waalwijk in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

VVV Venlo

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Nov

Twente

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

3

L

O

N

25 Oct

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Oct

Zwolle

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Heracles

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Groningen and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Groningen

14%

18%

34%

34%

Waalwijk

35%

26%

23%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 2.04 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 1.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.86 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

19.61

0-1

6.49

1

9.71

2-3

2.12

2

5.00

4+

2.65

3

3.69

Ov 1.5

1.18

4

5.15

Un 1.5

6.49

5

7.75

Ov 2.5

1.54

6+

18.52

Un 2.5

2.82

Gg

1.80

Ov 3.5

2.65

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.60

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.02

4.05

2-3 goals

1.45

9.61

4.81

4+ goals

2.30

2.90

4.54

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.74

4.69

Un 1.5

2.37

3.02

4.05

Ov 2.5

1.75

4.98

4.38

Un 2.5

1.93

3.54

4.99

Ov 3.5

2.30

2.90

4.54

Un 3.5

1.61

6.25

4.60

Goal-Goal

2.21

3.11

4.45

No Goal

1.48

8.75

4.74

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

3.90

4.06

NG+Un 2.5

1.67

8.75

4.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


FC Emmen vs Den Haag at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and Den Haag for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Emmen

1.75

2.26

-12.9

Draw

4.04

3.55

3.4

Den Haag

4.19

3.62

3.8

Over 2.5

1.58

2.15

-16.8

Under 2.5

2.43

1.87

12.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Den Haag, Under 2.5 (3.4 %, 3.8 %, 12.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance at home.
FC Emmen, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Ajax

H

0

5

L

O

N

22 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Vitesse

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Feyenoord

H

2

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Heerenveen

A

0

4

L

O

N

18 Oct

For Sittard

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Twente

A

1

1

D

U

G


Den Haag in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance as a guest.
Den Haag, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Utrecht

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

6

L

O

N

07 Nov

Twente

H

2

4

L

O

G

01 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

4

L

O

N

25 Oct

AZ Alkmaar

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Vitesse

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Oct

VVV Venlo

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, Den Haag.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Emmen

23%

36%

20%

21%

Den Haag

29%

45%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.98 goals and Den Haag to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team FC Emmen to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.39 goals and Den Haag to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team FC Emmen to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.62

1

4.78

2-3

2.03

2

3.86

4+

4.31

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.62

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

4.12

2.63

2-3 goals

2.35

3.04

4.07

4+ goals

1.80

4.38

4.64

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.37

4.23

Un 1.5

2.65

4.12

2.63

Ov 2.5

1.66

8.77

3.52

Un 2.5

3.30

2.34

3.72

Ov 3.5

1.80

4.38

4.64

Un 3.5

2.45

3.35

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.54

4.92

No Goal

2.05

6.78

2.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.75

7.25

3.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

6.78

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Ajax vs Zwolle at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ajax and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ajax

1.15

1.61

-24.8

Draw

8.54

4.69

9.6

Zwolle

13.60

6.10

9.0

Over 2.5

1.17

1.88

-32.3

Under 2.5

4.68

2.14

25.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Zwolle, Under 2.5 (9.6 %, 9 %, 25.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ajax in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ajax in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ajax’s performance at home.
Ajax, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ajax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Twente

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

FC Emmen

A

5

0

W

O

N

22 Nov

Heracles

H

5

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Utrecht

A

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

For Sittard

H

5

2

W

O

G

24 Oct

VVV Venlo

A

13

0

W

O

N

18 Oct

Heerenveen

H

5

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N


Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Vitesse

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

VVV Venlo

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Utrecht

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

For Sittard

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Twente

A

1

5

L

O

G

24 Oct

Willem II

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Oct

Waalwijk

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ajax and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ajax

21%

10%

43%

26%

Zwolle

44%

34%

16%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ajax to score 3.75 goals and Zwolle to score 0.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 4.29 goals in the game and the home team Ajax to win by 3.22 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ajax to score 1.73 goals and Zwolle to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Ajax to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

4.76

1

8.47

2-3

1.83

2

3.88

4+

4.10

3

3.47

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.76

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at