# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Heracles vs For Sittard at 11 December 2020**** Groningen vs Waalwijk at 12 December 2020**** FC Emmen vs Den Haag at 12 December 2020**** Ajax vs Zwolle at 12 December 2020**** Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam at 13 December 2020**** VVV Venlo vs Feyenoord at 13 December 2020**** Vitesse vs Heerenveen at 13 December 2020**** PSV Eindhoven vs Utrecht at 13 December 2020**** Twente vs AZ Alkmaar at 13 December 2020**

###
Heracles vs For Sittard at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Heracles** and **For Sittard** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **11 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Heracles |
1.77 |
1.92 |
-4.4 |

Draw |
4.04 |
4.05 |
-0.1 |

For Sittard |
4.04 |
4.31 |
-1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.91 |
-10.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.10 |
5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** at home**.

Heracles,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Waalwijk |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** as a guest**.

For Sittard,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Willem II |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Heracles** and the red line for guest team, **For Sittard. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Heracles |
19% |
32% |
21% |
28% |

For Sittard |
37% |
34% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.94 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.98** goals in the game and the home team **Heracles ** to win by **0.9** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.58 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Heracles ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
3.72 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.16 |
3.59 |
3.86 |

2-3 goals |
1.85 |
4.37 |
4.33 |

4+ goals |
1.83 |
4.01 |
4.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.23 |
4.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.59 |
3.86 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.81 |
3.99 |

Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.65 |
4.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.83 |
4.01 |
4.89 |

Un 3.5 |
1.95 |
4.06 |
4.15 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.88 |
4.57 |

No Goal |
1.63 |
6.94 |
4.11 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
5.94 |
3.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.94 |
3.68 |

####
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###
Groningen vs Waalwijk at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Groningen** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Groningen |
1.48 |
1.81 |
-12.3 |

Draw |
4.34 |
4.37 |
-0.2 |

Waalwijk |
6.39 |
4.59 |
6.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.54 |
7.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.84 |
-12.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (6.1 %, 7.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** at home**.

Groningen,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
For Sittard |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Groningen** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Groningen |
14% |
18% |
34% |
34% |

Waalwijk |
35% |
26% |
23% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **2.04 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **Groningen ** to win by **1.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **1.86 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.06** goals in the game and the home team **Groningen ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
19.61 |
0-1 |
6.49 |

1 |
9.71 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
5.00 |
4+ |
2.65 |

3 |
3.69 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |

4 |
5.15 |
Un 1.5 |
6.49 |

5 |
7.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |

6+ |
18.52 |
Un 2.5 |
2.82 |

Gg |
1.80 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.65 |

NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.60 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.02 |
4.05 |

2-3 goals |
1.45 |
9.61 |
4.81 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
2.90 |
4.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.74 |
4.74 |
4.69 |

Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.02 |
4.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
4.98 |
4.38 |

Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
3.54 |
4.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
2.90 |
4.54 |

Un 3.5 |
1.61 |
6.25 |
4.60 |

Goal-Goal |
2.21 |
3.11 |
4.45 |

No Goal |
1.48 |
8.75 |
4.74 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
3.90 |
4.06 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
8.75 |
4.30 |

####
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###
FC Emmen vs Den Haag at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Emmen** and **Den Haag** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Emmen |
1.75 |
2.26 |
-12.9 |

Draw |
4.04 |
3.55 |
3.4 |

Den Haag |
4.19 |
3.62 |
3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
2.15 |
-16.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.43 |
1.87 |
12.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Den Haag, Under 2.5 (3.4 %, 3.8 %, 12.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** at home**.

FC Emmen,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Den Haag** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Den Haag** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance** as a guest**.

Den Haag,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Nov |
Twente |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Emmen** and the red line for guest team, **Den Haag. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Emmen |
23% |
36% |
20% |
21% |

Den Haag |
29% |
45% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.98 ** goals and **Den Haag** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.01** goals in the game and the home team **FC Emmen ** to win by **0.95** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Den Haag** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **FC Emmen ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
4.12 |
2.63 |

2-3 goals |
2.35 |
3.04 |
4.07 |

4+ goals |
1.80 |
4.38 |
4.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.37 |
4.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
4.12 |
2.63 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
8.77 |
3.52 |

Un 2.5 |
3.30 |
2.34 |
3.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.80 |
4.38 |
4.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.35 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.48 |
2.54 |
4.92 |

No Goal |
2.05 |
6.78 |
2.75 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.25 |
3.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.78 |
2.59 |

####
Go to Top

###
Ajax vs Zwolle at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ajax** and **Zwolle** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ajax |
1.15 |
1.61 |
-24.8 |

Draw |
8.54 |
4.69 |
9.6 |

Zwolle |
13.60 |
6.10 |
9.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.17 |
1.88 |
-32.3 |

Under 2.5 |
4.68 |
2.14 |
25.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Zwolle, Under 2.5 (9.6 %, 9 %, 25.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ajax** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ajax** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ajax** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ajax** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ajax’s performance** at home**.

Ajax,** at home**, had 5 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ajax** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ajax was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Twente |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
FC Emmen |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
For Sittard |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
A |
13 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Heerenveen |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** as a guest**.

Zwolle,** as a guest**, had no wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ajax** and the red line for guest team, **Zwolle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ajax |
21% |
10% |
43% |
26% |

Zwolle |
44% |
34% |
16% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ajax** to score **3.75 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **0.53 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **4.29** goals in the game and the home team **Ajax ** to win by **3.22** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ajax** to score **1.73 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Ajax ** to win by **0.89** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
4.76 |

1 |
8.47 |
2-3 |
1.83 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.10 |

3 |
3.47 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.76 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |