2020 12 11 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Fortitudo Bologna at 12 December 2020
Sassari vs Universo Treviso at 13 December 2020
Aquila Basket Trento vs Cantu at 13 December 2020
Varese vs Reggiana at 13 December 2020
Olimpia Milano vs Brindisi at 13 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Fortitudo Bologna at 12 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Victoria Libertas Pesaro and Fortitudo Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 12 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

1.7

1.58

Fortitudo Bologna

2.17

2.72

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

-2.5

-4.00

Fortitudo Bologna HC

+2.5

4.00

Point Line

161.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Universo Treviso

L

81

91

5

4

L 1

72

88

Nov 22

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

84

63

5

3

W 4

87

67

Nov 8

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

78

4

3

W 3

79

78

Nov 1

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

83

3

3

W 2

96

80

Oct 25

A

Virtus Roma

W

84

69

2

3

W 1

77

74

Oct 17

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

57

71

1

3

L 1

59

73

Oct 11

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

90

72

1

2

W 1

94

74

Oct 4

A

Red October Cantu

L

72

81

0

2

L 1

69

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

85

99

1

8

L 6

86

104

Nov 22

H

Virtus Bologna

L

71

91

1

7

L 5

72

89

Nov 7

H

Universo Treviso

L

87

98

1

6

L 4

77

95

Nov 1

A

Enel Brindisi

L

74

100

1

5

L 3

78

92

Oct 25

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

82

1

4

L 2

82

74

Oct 18

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

86

89

1

3

L 1

82

81

Oct 10

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

93

70

1

2

W 1

96

72

Oct 4

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

83

88

0

2

L 1

77

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro (in the first graph) and by Fortitudo Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Victoria Libertas Pesaro will expected to score 83 points and the Fortitudo Bologna 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

Fortitudo Bologna

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

13.80

17.00

DRB

24.60

21.40

AST-TO

1.29

1.35

TRB

34.40

29.60

FTM

14.30

12.30

BL

0.80

3.30

FTA

19.60

18.20

PF-Fewer

20.60

20.10

ST

6.70

9.60

TO-Fewer

10.70

12.60

Ftper

0.73

0.68

ORBper

0.40

0.38

ORB

9.90

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Sassari vs Universo Treviso at 13 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassari and Universo Treviso for Serie A, which will take place on 13 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Sassari

1.32

1.69

Universo Treviso

3.4

2.44

Sassari HC

-7.5

-3.00

Universo Treviso HC

+7.5

3.00

Point Line

172.5

171.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Virtus Bologna

W

83

78

5

4

W 1

85

76

Nov 15

H

Enel Brindisi

L

87

100

4

4

L 2

92

92

Nov 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

78

92

4

3

L 1

81

95

Nov 1

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

104

82

4

2

W 1

96

82

Oct 25

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

92

99

3

2

L 1

96

102

Oct 18

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

89

86

3

1

W 2

81

86

Oct 11

A

Virtus Roma

W

92

72

2

1

W 1

85

78

Oct 4

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

72

74

1

1

L 1

75

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Universo Treviso are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

91

81

4

4

W 1

95

81

Dec 3

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

74

98

3

4

L 1

77

104

Nov 18

H

Red October Cantu

W

89

82

3

3

W 2

86

86

Nov 7

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

98

87

2

3

W 1

89

87

Oct 18

A

Enel Brindisi

L

83

99

1

3

L 3

88

91

Oct 11

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

87

94

1

2

L 2

88

99

Oct 4

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

64

104

1

1

L 1

74

94

Sep 26

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

84

80

1

0

W 0

87

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Universo Treviso.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Universo Treviso and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Sassari (in the first graph) and by Universo Treviso in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Sassari will expected to score 88 points and the Universo Treviso 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 174.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Sassari

Universo Treviso

FG%

0.57

0.53

ASS

18.00

18.50

DRB

24.20

19.60

AST-TO

1.22

1.76

TRB

32.10

28.50

FTM

18.70

13.90

BL

2.00

1.40

FTA

24.00

17.10

PF-Fewer

19.20

22.10

ST

7.90

7.30

TO-Fewer

14.80

10.50

Ftper

0.78

0.81

ORBper

0.33

0.45

ORB

7.90

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aquila Basket Trento vs Cantu at 13 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Aquila Basket Trento and Cantu for Serie A, which will take place on 13 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aquila Basket Trento

1.32

3.10

Cantu

3.4

1.48

Aquila Basket Trento HC

-7.5

5.50

Cantu HC

+7.5

-5.50

Point Line

157.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

79

71

5

5

W 1

82

74

Nov 22

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

77

4

5

L 1

68

77

Nov 15

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

80

73

4

4

W 2

81

77

Nov 7

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

92

78

3

4

W 1

88

71

Nov 1

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

75

82

2

4

L 1

87

74

Oct 25

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

85

83

2

3

W 2

85

80

Oct 17

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

71

57

1

3

W 1

74

57

Oct 10

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

70

93

0

3

L 2

64

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 9

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

101

3

6

L 2

67

97

Dec 6

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

85

3

5

L 1

75

78

Nov 22

H

Virtus Roma

W

101

85

3

4

W 1

93

92

Nov 18

A

Universo Treviso

L

82

89

2

4

L 3

73

86

Nov 15

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

89

2

3

L 2

82

80

Oct 18

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

67

75

2

2

L 1

70

78

Oct 11

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

90

80

2

1

W 2

83

80

Oct 4

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

81

72

1

1

W 1

84

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cantu.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cantu and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aquila Basket Trento (in the first graph) and by Cantu in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aquila Basket Trento will expected to score 81 points and the Cantu 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aquila Basket Trento

Cantu

FG%

0.51

0.52

ASS

16.20

17.30

DRB

22.60

23.90

AST-TO

1.28

1.33

TRB

32.80

30.60

FTM

10.80

13.70

BL

1.80

2.70

FTA

16.10

19.40

PF-Fewer

20.30

17.00

ST

8.30

5.60

TO-Fewer

12.70

13.00

Ftper

0.67

0.70

ORBper

0.45

0.28

ORB

10.20

6.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Varese vs Reggiana at 13 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Varese and Reggiana for Serie A, which will take place on 13 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Varese

1.5

3.13

Reggiana

2.6

1.47

Varese HC

-4.5

5.50

Reggiana HC

+4.5

-5.50

Point Line

160.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Varese are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

70

96

4

6

L 1

81

86

Nov 22

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

77

74

4

5

W 2

80

76

Nov 15

H

Virtus Roma

W

98

88

3

5

W 1

90

95

Nov 8

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

78

85

2

5

L 5

81

85

Nov 1

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

82

104

2

4

L 4

78

95

Oct 24

H

Virtus Bologna

L

73

85

2

3

L 3

74

83

Oct 17

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

80

2

2

L 2

67

77

Oct 11

H

Red October Cantu

L

80

90

2

1

L 1

77

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

56

85

4

4

L 1

56

81

Dec 3

H

Universo Treviso

W

98

74

4

3

W 1

87

72

Nov 22

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

63

84

3

3

L 1

66

84

Oct 24

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

83

67

3

2

W 2

84

71

Oct 18

A

Virtus Bologna

W

77

67

2

2

W 1

79

65

Oct 11

H

Enel Brindisi

L

76

80

1

2

L 1

80

74

Oct 3

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

87

81

1

1

W 1

90

83

Sep 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

87

0

1

L 0

82

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Varese and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Varese.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Varese (in the first graph) and by Reggiana in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Varese will expected to score 77 points and the Reggiana 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Varese

Reggiana

FG%

0.51

0.49

ASS

15.20

15.10

DRB

24.10

25.50

AST-TO

1.18

1.06

TRB

33.00

35.00

FTM

14.80

16.60

BL

1.60

2.30

FTA

19.90

21.00

PF-Fewer

21.90

20.60

ST

6.30

6.60

TO-Fewer

12.90

14.30

Ftper

0.74

0.79

ORBper

0.37

0.37

ORB

8.90

9.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olimpia Milano vs Brindisi at 13 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Brindisi for Serie A, which will take place on 13 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.27

1.49

Brindisi

3.75

3.04

Olimpia Milano HC

-8.5

-5.00

Brindisi HC

+8.5

5.00

Point Line

160.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

96

70

10

0

W 9

89

70

Nov 22

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

86

72

9

0

W 8

90

74

Nov 15

A

Red October Cantu

W

89

71

8

0

W 7

86

74

Nov 8

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

87

56

7

0

W 6