# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Valladolid vs Osasuna at 11 December 2020**** Valencia vs Ath Bilbao at 12 December 2020**** Real Madrid vs Ath Madrid at 12 December 2020**** Huesca vs Alaves at 12 December 2020**** Getafe vs Sevilla at 12 December 2020**** Sociedad vs Eibar at 13 December 2020**** Elche vs Granada at 13 December 2020**** Betis vs Villarreal at 13 December 2020**** Barcelona vs Levante at 13 December 2020**** Celta vs Cadiz at 14 December 2020**

###
Valladolid vs Osasuna at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valladolid** and **Osasuna** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **11 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valladolid |
2.47 |
1.87 |
13.0 |

Draw |
3.13 |
4.07 |
-7.4 |

Osasuna |
3.16 |
4.55 |
-9.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
1.89 |
12.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.13 |
-17.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valladolid, Over 2.5 (13 %, 12.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valladolid** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valladolid** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance** at home**.

Valladolid,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Levante |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Granada |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Villarreal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Alaves |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Osasuna** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Osasuna** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance** as a guest**.

Osasuna,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Betis |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Barcelona |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Nov |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Eibar |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Celta |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valladolid** and the red line for guest team, **Osasuna. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valladolid |
19% |
28% |
26% |
27% |

Osasuna |
34% |
41% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Osasuna** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Osasuna** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **Valladolid ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.26 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.70 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.26 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.67 |
3.05 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
4.34 |
5.16 |

4+ goals |
1.75 |
3.97 |
5.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.74 |
4.20 |
5.31 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.67 |
3.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
7.81 |
4.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.58 |
2.63 |
4.30 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.75 |
3.97 |
5.63 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
4.10 |
4.22 |

Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
2.96 |
5.66 |

No Goal |
1.70 |
7.22 |
3.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
6.24 |
4.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
7.22 |
3.26 |

####
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###
Valencia vs Ath Bilbao at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valencia** and **Ath Bilbao** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valencia |
3.13 |
2.26 |
12.3 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.86 |
-5.4 |

Ath Bilbao |
2.44 |
3.34 |
-11.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.39 |
1.98 |
8.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
2.02 |
-12.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valencia, Over 2.5 (12.3 %, 8.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valencia** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valencia** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance** at home**.

Valencia,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Dec |
Eibar |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Real Madrid |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Elche |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Betis |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Ath Bilbao** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Bilbao** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance** as a guest**.

Ath Bilbao,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Dec |
Celta |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Nov |
Betis |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Sevilla |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Levante |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valencia** and the red line for guest team, **Ath Bilbao. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valencia |
24% |
30% |
27% |
19% |

Ath Bilbao |
33% |
33% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valencia** to score **0.99 ** goals and **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valencia** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.57 |
3.25 |
3.29 |

2-3 goals |
2.01 |
4.95 |
3.32 |

4+ goals |
2.55 |
3.17 |
3.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
4.14 |
3.36 |

Un 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.25 |
3.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.18 |
2.95 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.80 |
3.87 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.55 |
3.17 |
3.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.18 |
4.19 |
3.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.83 |
3.64 |

No Goal |
1.94 |
6.23 |
3.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.02 |
2.94 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.23 |
3.10 |

####
Go to Top

###
Real Madrid vs Ath Madrid at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Real Madrid** and **Ath Madrid** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Real Madrid |
2.44 |
2.36 |
1.4 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.64 |
-3.0 |

Ath Madrid |
3.06 |
3.32 |
-2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.89 |
6.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.12 |
-10.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Real Madrid, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Real Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Real Madrid** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance** at home**.

Real Madrid,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Huesca |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Barcelona |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Cadiz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Levante |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Ath Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Madrid** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance** as a guest**.

Ath Madrid,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Barcelona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Cadiz |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Osasuna |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Betis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Celta |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Villarreal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Real Madrid** and the red line for guest team, **Ath Madrid. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Real Madrid |
22% |
32% |
24% |
21% |

Ath Madrid |
20% |
49% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Real Madrid** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Ath Madrid** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Real Madrid** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Ath Madrid** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
4.57 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
3.58 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.32 |
Un 1.5 |
4.57 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.61 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.58 |

NoG |
2.65 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.37 |
4.87 |
2.01 |

2-3 goals |
2.36 |
3.16 |
3.86 |

4+ goals |
1.91 |
3.93 |
4.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.40 |
4.07 |

Un 1.5 |
3.37 |
4.87 |
2.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
7.46 |
3.56 |

Un 2.5 |
4.12 |
2.30 |
3.09 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.91 |
3.93 |
4.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.53 |
3.02 |

Goal-Goal |
2.33 |
2.70 |
4.98 |

No Goal |
2.41 |
8.40 |
2.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.52 |
3.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
8.40 |
2.05 |

####
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###
Huesca vs Alaves at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huesca** and **Alaves** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huesca |
2.27 |
2.59 |
-5.4 |

Draw |
3.24 |
3.75 |
-4.2 |

Alaves |
3.38 |
2.88 |
5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
1.90 |
9.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.11 |
-14.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Alaves, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 9.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huesca** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huesca** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance** at home**.

Huesca,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Granada |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Real Madrid |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Elche |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Alaves** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Alaves** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance** as a guest**.

Alaves,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Real Madrid |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Levante |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Barcelona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Oct |
Valladolid |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Elche |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huesca** and the red line for guest team, **Alaves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huesca |
25% |
32% |
26% |
18% |

Alaves |
24% |
39% |
22% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huesca** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Alaves** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and the home team **Huesca ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huesca** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Alaves** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
4.29 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.60 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.29 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.75 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.60 |

NoG |
2.33 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |