2020 12 11 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Valladolid vs Osasuna at 11 December 2020
Valencia vs Ath Bilbao at 12 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Ath Madrid at 12 December 2020
Huesca vs Alaves at 12 December 2020
Getafe vs Sevilla at 12 December 2020
Sociedad vs Eibar at 13 December 2020
Elche vs Granada at 13 December 2020
Betis vs Villarreal at 13 December 2020
Barcelona vs Levante at 13 December 2020
Celta vs Cadiz at 14 December 2020


Valladolid vs Osasuna at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Osasuna for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valladolid

2.47

1.87

13.0

Draw

3.13

4.07

-7.4

Osasuna

3.16

4.55

-9.7

Over 2.5

2.48

1.89

12.6

Under 2.5

1.56

2.13

-17.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (13 %, 12.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valladolid in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Nov

Levante

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Granada

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Villarreal

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Alaves

H

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Huesca

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Eibar

H

1

2

L

O

G


Osasuna in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance as a guest.
Osasuna, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Betis

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Barcelona

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Nov

Huesca

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Ath Madrid

H

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Ath Bilbao

H

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Eibar

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Celta

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Osasuna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valladolid

19%

28%

26%

27%

Osasuna

34%

41%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.14 goals and Osasuna to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.61 goals and Osasuna to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.26

1

5.85

2-3

2.02

2

4.27

4+

3.70

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.26

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.70

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.67

3.05

2-3 goals

1.74

4.34

5.16

4+ goals

1.75

3.97

5.63

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.20

5.31

Un 1.5

2.50

3.67

3.05

Ov 2.5

1.51

7.81

4.74

Un 2.5

2.58

2.63

4.30

Ov 3.5

1.75

3.97

5.63

Un 3.5

1.93

4.10

4.22

Goal-Goal

2.06

2.96

5.66

No Goal

1.70

7.22

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

6.24

4.46

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

7.22

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Valencia vs Ath Bilbao at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valencia

3.13

2.26

12.3

Draw

3.19

3.86

-5.4

Ath Bilbao

2.44

3.34

-11.0

Over 2.5

2.39

1.98

8.7

Under 2.5

1.61

2.02

-12.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valencia, Over 2.5 (12.3 %, 8.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valencia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance at home.
Valencia, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Eibar

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Ath Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Alaves

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

Real Madrid

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Getafe

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Oct

Elche

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Betis

H

0

2

L

U

N


Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance as a guest.
Ath Bilbao, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Dec

Celta

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Nov

Betis

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Sevilla

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Osasuna

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Levante

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Alaves

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valencia and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valencia

24%

30%

27%

19%

Ath Bilbao

33%

33%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valencia to score 0.99 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.41 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.89

1

5.62

2-3

2.06

2

4.20

4+

3.85

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.89

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.25

3.29

2-3 goals

2.01

4.95

3.32

4+ goals

2.55

3.17

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.17

4.14

3.36

Un 1.5

2.57

3.25

3.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6.18

2.95

Un 2.5

2.61

2.80

3.87

Ov 3.5

2.55

3.17

3.42

Un 3.5

2.18

4.19

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.83

3.64

No Goal

1.94

6.23

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.02

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.23

3.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Real Madrid vs Ath Madrid at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Ath Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Real Madrid

2.44

2.36

1.4

Draw

3.28

3.64

-3.0

Ath Madrid

3.06

3.32

-2.6

Over 2.5

2.16

1.89

6.6

Under 2.5

1.73

2.12

-10.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Real Madrid, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Real Madrid in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Alaves

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Villarreal

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Valencia

A

1

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Huesca

H

4

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Barcelona

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Cadiz

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Levante

A

2

0

W

U

N


Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Ath Madrid, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Valladolid

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Barcelona

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Betis

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Celta

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Villarreal

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Ath Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Real Madrid

22%

32%

24%

21%

Ath Madrid

20%

49%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.26 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.45 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

4.57

1

5.75

2-3

1.99

2

3.98

4+

3.58

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.32

Un 1.5

4.57

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.61

Ov 3.5

3.58

NoG

2.65

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.37

4.87

2.01

2-3 goals

2.36

3.16

3.86

4+ goals

1.91

3.93

4.50

Ov 1.5

2.18

3.40

4.07

Un 1.5

3.37

4.87

2.01

Ov 2.5

1.71

7.46

3.56

Un 2.5

4.12

2.30

3.09

Ov 3.5

1.91

3.93

4.50

Un 3.5

2.59

3.53

3.02

Goal-Goal

2.33

2.70

4.98

No Goal

2.41

8.40

2.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

6.52

3.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.73

8.40

2.05


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Huesca vs Alaves at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Huesca and Alaves for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huesca

2.27

2.59

-5.4

Draw

3.24

3.75

-4.2

Alaves

3.38

2.88

5.1

Over 2.5

2.30

1.90

9.2

Under 2.5

1.63

2.11

-14.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Alaves, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 9.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huesca in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance at home.
Huesca, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Granada

A

3

3

D

O

G

28 Nov

Sevilla

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Osasuna

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Real Madrid

A

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Sociedad

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Oct

Valladolid

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Elche

A

0

0

D

U

N


Alaves in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance as a guest.
Alaves, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Sociedad

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Real Madrid

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Valencia

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Barcelona

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Valladolid

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Elche

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Oct

Ath Bilbao

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Alaves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huesca

25%

32%

26%

18%

Alaves

24%

39%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.26 goals and Alaves to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Huesca to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.36 goals and Alaves to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.29

1

5.78

2-3

2.04

2

4.17

4+

3.60

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.29

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.75

Ov 3.5

3.60

NoG

2.33

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-