2020 12 11 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Peterboro vs Rochdale at 12 December 2020
Doncaster vs Gillingham at 12 December 2020
Wigan vs Accrington at 12 December 2020
Swindon vs Fleetwood Town at 12 December 2020
Lincoln vs Sunderland at 12 December 2020
Hull vs Shrewsbury at 12 December 2020
Ipswich vs Portsmouth at 12 December 2020
Crewe vs Northampton at 12 December 2020
Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon at 12 December 2020
Bristol Rvs vs Plymouth at 12 December 2020
Blackpool vs Oxford at 12 December 2020
Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton at 12 December 2020


Peterboro vs Rochdale at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.53

2.16

-19.1

Draw

4.20

3.70

3.2

Rochdale

5.92

3.76

9.7

Over 2.5

1.73

2.16

-11.5

Under 2.5

2.12

1.86

6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rochdale, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 9.7 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Plymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Blackpool

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Crewe

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Shrewsbury

H

5

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Burton

H

2

2

D

O

G


Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Plymouth

A

4

0

W

O

N

24 Nov

Northampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Oxford

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bristol Rvs

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

21%

37%

25%

17%

Rochdale

35%

35%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 2.01 goals and Rochdale to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 1.26 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.39 goals and Rochdale to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.60

1

4.90

2-3

1.99

2

3.86

4+

4.57

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.60

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.14

3.76

3.76

2-3 goals

2.11

3.86

3.75

4+ goals

2.31

3.37

3.71

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.70

3.74

Un 1.5

2.14

3.76

3.76

Ov 2.5

1.89

7.11

3.04

Un 2.5

2.46

2.63

4.67

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.37

3.71

Un 3.5

2.12

3.82

3.75

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.62

3.86

No Goal

1.75

6.61

3.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.85

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.61

3.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Doncaster vs Gillingham at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Doncaster and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Doncaster

1.86

2.23

-8.9

Draw

3.54

3.68

-1.1

Gillingham

4.25

3.57

4.5

Over 2.5

2.03

2.16

-3.0

Under 2.5

1.79

1.86

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gillingham (4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Doncaster in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance at home.
Doncaster, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Northampton

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Hull

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Blackpool

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Lincoln

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Plymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Crewe

H

1

2

L

O

G


Gillingham in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Swindon

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Bristol Rvs

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Charlton

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Crewe

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Ipswich

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Fleetwood Town

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Doncaster and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Doncaster

22%

37%

24%

17%

Gillingham

34%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Doncaster to score 1.55 goals and Gillingham to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Doncaster to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Doncaster to score 1.36 goals and Gillingham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.60

1

4.93

2-3

1.99

2

3.85

4+

4.55

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.60

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.71

3.56

2-3 goals

2.21

3.84

3.49

4+ goals

2.32

3.28

3.79

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.65

3.58

Un 1.5

2.22

3.71

3.56

Ov 2.5

1.93

6.91

2.97

Un 2.5

2.59

2.61

4.34

Ov 3.5

2.32

3.28

3.79

Un 3.5

2.21

3.79

3.52

Goal-Goal

2.83

2.60

3.81

No Goal

1.83

6.48

3.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

5.73

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

6.48

3.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wigan vs Accrington at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

3.35

2.74

6.6

Draw

3.37

3.89

-4.0

Accrington

2.18

2.65

-8.1

Over 2.5

2.09

1.89

5.1

Under 2.5

1.75

2.12

-10.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan, Over 2.5 (6.6 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Oxford

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Northampton

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Plymouth

H

1

1

D

U

G


Accrington in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Shrewsbury

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Crewe

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Lincoln

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Nov

Swindon

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Ipswich

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

30%

26%

26%

18%

Accrington

23%

38%

23%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1 goals and Accrington to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the guest team Accrington to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.31 goals and Accrington to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.13

1

5.78

2-3

2.10

2

4.37

4+

3.56

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.92

Un 1.5

4.13

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.56

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.03

3.51

2.14

2-3 goals

2.42

4.82

2.64

4+ goals

2.58

3.16

3.39

Ov 1.5

2.48

4.03

2.87

Un 1.5

4.03

3.51

2.14

Ov 2.5

2.14

5.94

2.74

Un 2.5

3.96

2.80

2.56

Ov 3.5

2.58

3.16

3.39

Un 3.5

2.80

4.28

2.45

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.87

3.72

No Goal

2.88

6.68

1.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

4.94

3.03

NG+Un 2.5

3.13

6.68

2.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Swindon vs Fleetwood Town at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

3.34

2.81

5.6

Draw

3.43

3.70

-2.1

Fleetwood Town

2.14

2.67

-9.3

Over 2.5

1.95

2.03

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.87

1.97

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon (5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Gillingham

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Crewe

A

2

4

L

O

G

28 Nov

Oxford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Accrington

H

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Shrewsbury

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

4

L

O

G


Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Nov

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Plymouth

H

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Charlton

A

2

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

29%

32%

23%

16%

Fleetwood Town

24%

38%

26%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.05 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team Fleetwood Town to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.25 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.91

1

5.38

2-3

2.01

2

3.95

4+

4.05

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.32

3.66

2.35