2020 12 11 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Morecambe vs Harrogate at 12 December 2020
Walsall vs Bolton at 12 December 2020
Southend vs Scunthorpe at 12 December 2020
Salford vs Cheltenham at 12 December 2020
Oldham vs Bradford at 12 December 2020
Grimsby vs Mansfield at 12 December 2020
Forest Green vs Cambridge at 12 December 2020
Exeter vs Tranmere at 12 December 2020
Crawley Town vs Barrow at 12 December 2020
Carlisle vs Stevenage at 12 December 2020
Leyton Orient vs Newport County at 12 December 2020
Port Vale vs Colchester at 12 December 2020


Morecambe vs Harrogate at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Morecambe and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Morecambe

2.63

2.59

0.6

Draw

3.30

3.58

-2.4

Harrogate

2.67

2.99

-4.0

Over 2.5

2.00

2.24

-5.4

Under 2.5

1.83

1.81

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Morecambe, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Morecambe in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance at home.
Morecambe, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Salford

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Scunthorpe

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Exeter

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Carlisle

A

1

3

L

O

G


Harrogate in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

2

5

L

O

G

24 Nov

Mansfield

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Leyton Orient

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Morecambe and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Morecambe

28%

36%

22%

14%

Harrogate

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.23 goals and Harrogate to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.23 goals and Harrogate to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

3.37

1

4.74

2-3

2.04

2

3.88

4+

4.69

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.37

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

3.45

2.97

2-3 goals

2.52

3.81

2.94

4+ goals

2.63

3.33

3.13

Ov 1.5

2.55

3.65

3.00

Un 1.5

2.68

3.45

2.97

Ov 2.5

2.17

6.97

2.53

Un 2.5

3.07

2.58

3.49

Ov 3.5

2.63

3.33

3.13

Un 3.5

2.58

3.67

2.95

Goal-Goal

3.08

2.59

3.47

No Goal

2.23

5.84

2.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

5.78

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

5.84

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Walsall vs Bolton at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Walsall and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Walsall

2.28

2.46

-3.2

Draw

3.30

3.64

-2.8

Bolton

3.15

3.14

0.1

Over 2.5

2.14

2.20

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.72

1.83

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bolton (0.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Walsall in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance at home.
Walsall, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Tranmere

A

3

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Newport County

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Cheltenham

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Southend

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Crawley Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Cambridge

H

0

2

L

U

N


Bolton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Port Vale

H

3

6

L

O

G

28 Nov

Southend

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Nov

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Stevenage

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Nov

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Leyton Orient

A

0

4

L

O

N

27 Oct

Bradford

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Walsall and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Walsall

27%

33%

25%

15%

Bolton

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.3 goals and Bolton to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.28 goals and Bolton to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.48

1

4.95

2-3

2.02

2

3.91

4+

4.61

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.48

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.38

2.93

2-3 goals

2.26

4.12

3.19

4+ goals

2.61

3.14

3.34

Ov 1.5

2.35

3.76

3.23

Un 1.5

2.76

3.38

2.93

Ov 2.5

2.05

6.59

2.77

Un 2.5

2.95

2.65

3.53

Ov 3.5

2.61

3.14

3.34

Un 3.5

2.42

3.81

3.09

Goal-Goal

2.84

2.64

3.72

No Goal

2.17

5.87

2.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.49

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

5.87

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Southend vs Scunthorpe at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Southend and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southend

3.37

3.36

0.1

Draw

3.24

3.76

-4.3

Scunthorpe

2.21

2.29

-1.6

Over 2.5

2.31

2.14

3.4

Under 2.5

1.62

1.88

-8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southend in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance at home.
Southend, at home, had no wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Bolton

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Nov

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Bradford

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Port Vale

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Tranmere

A

0

2

L

U

N


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Colchester

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Leyton Orient

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Harrogate

A

5

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Morecambe

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Nov

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Nov

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Exeter

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southend and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southend

36%

31%

21%

13%

Scunthorpe

22%

38%

25%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 0.94 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the guest team Scunthorpe to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.11 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.57

1

4.95

2-3

2.04

2

3.97

4+

4.37

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.57

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.12

3.59

2.09

2-3 goals

3.26

4.18

2.20

4+ goals

2.86

3.23

2.94

Ov 1.5

3.12

3.82

2.39

Un 1.5

4.12

3.59

2.09

Ov 2.5

2.52

6.56

2.22

Un 2.5

4.71

2.73

2.38

Ov 3.5

2.86

3.23

2.94

Un 3.5

3.53

3.94

2.16

Goal-Goal

3.19

2.66

3.21

No Goal

3.52

6.37

1.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.45

5.41

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

3.67

6.37

1.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Salford vs Cheltenham at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

2.58

2.46

1.9

Draw

3.38

3.61

-1.9

Cheltenham

2.64

3.16

-6.2

Over 2.5

2.02

2.18

-3.6

Under 2.5

1.81

1.85

-1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salford (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Barrow

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Carlisle

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Bradford

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Nov

Bolton

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Oldham

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 5 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 71.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Exeter

H

5

3

W

O

G

01 Dec

Bradford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Walsall

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Oldham

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Forest Green

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Port Vale

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

25%

36%

23%

16%

Cheltenham

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.23 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.29 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.50

1

4.85

2-3

2.03

2

3.91

4+

4.50

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.50

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.51

3.58

3.11

2-3 goals

2.42

3.73