# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Morecambe vs Harrogate at 12 December 2020**** Walsall vs Bolton at 12 December 2020**** Southend vs Scunthorpe at 12 December 2020**** Salford vs Cheltenham at 12 December 2020**** Oldham vs Bradford at 12 December 2020**** Grimsby vs Mansfield at 12 December 2020**** Forest Green vs Cambridge at 12 December 2020**** Exeter vs Tranmere at 12 December 2020**** Crawley Town vs Barrow at 12 December 2020**** Carlisle vs Stevenage at 12 December 2020**** Leyton Orient vs Newport County at 12 December 2020**** Port Vale vs Colchester at 12 December 2020**

###
Morecambe vs Harrogate at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Morecambe** and **Harrogate** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Morecambe |
2.63 |
2.59 |
0.6 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.58 |
-2.4 |

Harrogate |
2.67 |
2.99 |
-4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.24 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.81 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Morecambe, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** at home**.

Morecambe,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Salford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** as a guest**.

Harrogate,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Morecambe** and the red line for guest team, **Harrogate. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Morecambe |
28% |
36% |
22% |
14% |

Harrogate |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.68 |
3.45 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
3.81 |
2.94 |

4+ goals |
2.63 |
3.33 |
3.13 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.65 |
3.00 |

Un 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.45 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.97 |
2.53 |

Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
2.58 |
3.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.63 |
3.33 |
3.13 |

Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.67 |
2.95 |

Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.59 |
3.47 |

No Goal |
2.23 |
5.84 |
2.63 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.78 |
2.57 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
5.84 |
2.68 |

####
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###
Walsall vs Bolton at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Walsall** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Walsall |
2.28 |
2.46 |
-3.2 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.64 |
-2.8 |

Bolton |
3.15 |
3.14 |
0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.20 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.83 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bolton (0.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** at home**.

Walsall,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Tranmere |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Southend |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Walsall** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Walsall |
27% |
33% |
25% |
15% |

Bolton |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.38 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.26 |
4.12 |
3.19 |

4+ goals |
2.61 |
3.14 |
3.34 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.76 |
3.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.38 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.59 |
2.77 |

Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.65 |
3.53 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.61 |
3.14 |
3.34 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.81 |
3.09 |

Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.64 |
3.72 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
5.87 |
2.71 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.49 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.87 |
2.75 |

####
Go to Top

###
Southend vs Scunthorpe at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southend** and **Scunthorpe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southend |
3.37 |
3.36 |
0.1 |

Draw |
3.24 |
3.76 |
-4.3 |

Scunthorpe |
2.21 |
2.29 |
-1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.14 |
3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.88 |
-8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southend, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 3.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** at home**.

Southend,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** as a guest**.

Scunthorpe,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southend** and the red line for guest team, **Scunthorpe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southend |
36% |
31% |
21% |
13% |

Scunthorpe |
22% |
38% |
25% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southend** to score **0.94 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the guest team **Scunthorpe ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southend** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.12 |
3.59 |
2.09 |

2-3 goals |
3.26 |
4.18 |
2.20 |

4+ goals |
2.86 |
3.23 |
2.94 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.12 |
3.82 |
2.39 |

Un 1.5 |
4.12 |
3.59 |
2.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |
6.56 |
2.22 |

Un 2.5 |
4.71 |
2.73 |
2.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
2.94 |

Un 3.5 |
3.53 |
3.94 |
2.16 |

Goal-Goal |
3.19 |
2.66 |
3.21 |

No Goal |
3.52 |
6.37 |
1.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
5.41 |
2.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.67 |
6.37 |
1.85 |

####
Go to Top

###
Salford vs Cheltenham at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
2.58 |
2.46 |
1.9 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.61 |
-1.9 |

Cheltenham |
2.64 |
3.16 |
-6.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.18 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.85 |
-1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Salford (1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 71.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Walsall |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
25% |
36% |
23% |
16% |

Cheltenham |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.51 |
3.58 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.42 |
3.73 |