# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** St Etienne vs Angers at 11 December 2020**** Lens vs Montpellier at 12 December 2020**** Marseille vs Monaco at 12 December 2020**** Lille vs Bordeaux at 13 December 2020**** Lorient vs Nimes at 13 December 2020**** Nantes vs Dijon at 13 December 2020**** Nice vs Rennes at 13 December 2020**** Paris SG vs Lyon at 13 December 2020**** Strasbourg vs Metz at 13 December 2020**** Brest vs Reims at 13 December 2020**

###
St Etienne vs Angers at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **St Etienne** and **Angers** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **11 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

St Etienne |
2.63 |
2.27 |
6.0 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.72 |
-2.8 |

Angers |
2.74 |
3.45 |
-7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.43 |
-7.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.70 |
3.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **St Etienne, Under 2.5 (6 %, 3.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**St Etienne** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **St Etienne** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance** at home**.

St Etienne,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Brest |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Nice |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Lens |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Angers** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Angers** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance** as a guest**.

Angers,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Lens |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Nimes |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Nice |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Oct |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Oct |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **St Etienne** and the red line for guest team, **Angers. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

St Etienne |
28% |
30% |
32% |
10% |

Angers |
38% |
36% |
13% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **St Etienne** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Angers** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **St Etienne** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Angers** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.26 |
0-1 |
3.10 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.46 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
8.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.10 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.46 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.86 |
2.99 |
3.17 |

2-3 goals |
1.78 |
4.62 |
4.49 |

4+ goals |
3.52 |
3.39 |
2.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
4.20 |
3.62 |

Un 1.5 |
2.86 |
2.99 |
3.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
7.61 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.74 |
4.24 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.52 |
3.39 |
2.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.80 |
3.85 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.75 |
3.85 |

No Goal |
2.03 |
5.16 |
3.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.22 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.16 |
3.47 |

####
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###
Lens vs Montpellier at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lens** and **Montpellier** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lens |
2.53 |
2.16 |
6.8 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.88 |
-4.5 |

Montpellier |
2.84 |
3.60 |
-7.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.28 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.78 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lens, Under 2.5 (6.8 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lens** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lens** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance** at home**.

Lens,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Angers |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Reims |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Lille |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Oct |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Nimes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** as a guest**.

Montpellier,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Paris SG |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Strasbourg |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bordeaux |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Reims |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Nimes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lens** and the red line for guest team, **Montpellier. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lens |
27% |
24% |
37% |
11% |

Montpellier |
37% |
36% |
15% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lens** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Montpellier** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lens** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Montpellier** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Lens ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.80 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.13 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
8.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.20 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.13 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.21 |
2.86 |
2.95 |

2-3 goals |
1.62 |
5.76 |
4.75 |

4+ goals |
3.42 |
2.91 |
2.75 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
4.54 |
3.96 |

Un 1.5 |
3.21 |
2.86 |
2.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.57 |
3.17 |

Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.93 |
4.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
2.91 |
2.75 |

Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
4.21 |
3.89 |

Goal-Goal |
2.37 |
2.92 |
4.25 |

No Goal |
2.00 |
5.34 |
3.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.46 |
3.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.34 |
3.39 |

####
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###
Marseille vs Monaco at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Marseille** and **Monaco** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Marseille |
2.77 |
2.02 |
13.4 |

Draw |
3.49 |
3.98 |
-3.5 |

Monaco |
2.50 |
3.95 |
-14.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.19 |
-10.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.84 |
6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Marseille, Under 2.5 (13.4 %, 6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** at home**.

Marseille,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Sep |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Monaco** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monaco** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance** as a guest**.

Monaco,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Nov |
Paris SG |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Nice |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Montpellier |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Brest |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Marseille** and the red line for guest team, **Monaco. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Marseille |
26% |
22% |
40% |
13% |

Monaco |
38% |
36% |
16% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Monaco** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Monaco** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
1.90 |

2 |
3.69 |
4+ |
4.90 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.33 |
2.79 |
2.94 |

2-3 goals |
1.51 |
6.73 |
5.25 |

4+ goals |
3.00 |
2.68 |
3.40 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.76 |
4.73 |
4.56 |

Un 1.5 |
3.33 |
2.79 |
2.94 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.03 |
3.85 |

Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
3.09 |
4.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.00 |
2.68 |
3.40 |

Un 3.5 |
1.86 |
4.53 |
4.13 |

Goal-Goal |
2.16 |
2.99 |
4.90 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
5.52 |
3.40 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
5.04 |
4.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.52 |
3.48 |

####
Go to Top

###
Lille vs Bordeaux at 13 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lille** and **Bordeaux** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **13 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lille |
1.75 |
1.85 |
-3.1 |

Draw |
3.60 |
3.98 |
-2.7 |

Bordeaux |
5.08 |
4.78 |
1.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.03 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.97 |
-8.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bordeaux, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lille** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lille** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance** at home**.

Lille,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Lorient |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Brest |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Oct |
Nice |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Lens |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

04 Oct |
Strasbourg |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Bordeaux** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bordeaux** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance** as a guest**.

Bordeaux,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Brest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Paris SG |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Nov |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Nimes |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lille** and the red line for guest team, **Bordeaux. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lille |
18% |
34% |
22% |
26% |

Bordeaux |
38% |
36% |
20% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lille** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Bordeaux** to score **0.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and the home team **Lille ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lille** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Bordeaux** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Lille ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.00 |
3.88 |
4.12 |