2020 12 11 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

St Etienne vs Angers at 11 December 2020
Lens vs Montpellier at 12 December 2020
Marseille vs Monaco at 12 December 2020
Lille vs Bordeaux at 13 December 2020
Lorient vs Nimes at 13 December 2020
Nantes vs Dijon at 13 December 2020
Nice vs Rennes at 13 December 2020
Paris SG vs Lyon at 13 December 2020
Strasbourg vs Metz at 13 December 2020
Brest vs Reims at 13 December 2020


St Etienne vs Angers at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between St Etienne and Angers for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

St Etienne

2.63

2.27

6.0

Draw

3.37

3.72

-2.8

Angers

2.74

3.45

-7.5

Over 2.5

2.04

2.43

-7.9

Under 2.5

1.81

1.70

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at St Etienne, Under 2.5 (6 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

St Etienne in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance at home.
St Etienne, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Dijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Brest

A

1

4

L

O

G

08 Nov

Lyon

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Montpellier

H

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Nice

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Oct

Lens

A

0

2

L

U

N


Angers in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Angers in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance as a guest.
Angers, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Lorient

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Lens

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Lyon

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Nimes

A

5

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Nice

H

0

3

L

O

N

23 Oct

Rennes

A

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Metz

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Oct

Paris SG

A

1

6

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, St Etienne and the red line for guest team, Angers.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

St Etienne

28%

30%

32%

10%

Angers

38%

36%

13%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.23 goals and Angers to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.24 goals and Angers to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.26

0-1

3.10

1

4.65

2-3

2.02

2

3.76

4+

5.46

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.62

Un 1.5

3.10

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.26

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

2.99

3.17

2-3 goals

1.78

4.62

4.49

4+ goals

3.52

3.39

2.38

Ov 1.5

2.06

4.20

3.62

Un 1.5

2.86

2.99

3.17

Ov 2.5

1.99

7.61

2.74

Un 2.5

2.51

2.74

4.24

Ov 3.5

3.52

3.39

2.38

Un 3.5

2.09

3.80

3.85

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.75

3.85

No Goal

2.03

5.16

3.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

6.22

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

5.16

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Lens vs Montpellier at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lens and Montpellier for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lens

2.53

2.16

6.8

Draw

3.30

3.88

-4.5

Montpellier

2.84

3.60

-7.4

Over 2.5

2.04

2.28

-5.2

Under 2.5

1.80

1.78

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lens, Under 2.5 (6.8 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lens in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance at home.
Lens, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Rennes

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Angers

H

1

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Reims

H

4

4

D

O

G

18 Oct

Lille

A

0

4

L

O

N

03 Oct

St Etienne

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G


Montpellier in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance as a guest.
Montpellier, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Paris SG

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Strasbourg

H

4

3

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bordeaux

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

St Etienne

A

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Reims

H

0

4

L

O

N

18 Oct

Monaco

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Nimes

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lens and the red line for guest team, Montpellier.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lens

27%

24%

37%

11%

Montpellier

37%

36%

15%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 1.26 goals and Montpellier to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.32 goals and Montpellier to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Lens to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.42

1

5.26

2-3

1.95

2

3.73

4+

5.13

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.42

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.21

2.86

2.95

2-3 goals

1.62

5.76

4.75

4+ goals

3.42

2.91

2.75

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.54

3.96

Un 1.5

3.21

2.86

2.95

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.57

3.17

Un 2.5

2.43

2.93

4.03

Ov 3.5

3.42

2.91

2.75

Un 3.5

1.98

4.21

3.89

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.92

4.25

No Goal

2.00

5.34

3.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.46

3.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

5.34

3.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Marseille vs Monaco at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Monaco for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Marseille

2.77

2.02

13.4

Draw

3.49

3.98

-3.5

Monaco

2.50

3.95

-14.7

Over 2.5

1.78

2.19

-10.5

Under 2.5

2.07

1.84

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Marseille, Under 2.5 (13.4 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Marseille in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Dec

Nimes

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Nantes

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Nov

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Lyon

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Metz

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G


Monaco in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance as a guest.
Monaco, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Lille

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Nov

Paris SG

H

3

2

W

O

G

08 Nov

Nice

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Bordeaux

H

4

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Lyon

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Oct

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Brest

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Monaco.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Marseille

26%

22%

40%

13%

Monaco

38%

36%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.3 goals and Monaco to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.4 goals and Monaco to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.66

1

5.71

2-3

1.90

2

3.69

4+

4.90

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.66

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.33

2.79

2.94

2-3 goals

1.51

6.73

5.25

4+ goals

3.00

2.68

3.40

Ov 1.5

1.76

4.73

4.56

Un 1.5

3.33

2.79

2.94

Ov 2.5

1.74

6.03

3.85

Un 2.5

2.32

3.09

4.06

Ov 3.5

3.00

2.68

3.40

Un 3.5

1.86

4.53

4.13

Goal-Goal

2.16

2.99

4.90

No Goal

1.90

5.52

3.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

5.04

4.07

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

5.52

3.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Lille vs Bordeaux at 13 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lille and Bordeaux for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 13 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lille

1.75

1.85

-3.1

Draw

3.60

3.98

-2.7

Bordeaux

5.08

4.78

1.2

Over 2.5

2.21

2.03

4.0

Under 2.5

1.69

1.97

-8.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bordeaux, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lille in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance at home.
Lille, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Lorient

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Brest

A

2

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Nice

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Lens

H

4

0

W

O

N

04 Oct

Strasbourg

A

3

0

W

O

N


Bordeaux in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance as a guest.
Bordeaux, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Paris SG

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Nov

Rennes

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Montpellier

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Monaco

A

0

4

L

O

N

25 Oct

Nimes

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Oct

Dijon

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lille and the red line for guest team, Bordeaux.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lille

18%

34%

22%

26%

Bordeaux

38%

36%

20%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lille to score 1.55 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Lille to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lille to score 1.56 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Lille to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.79

1

5.10

2-3

1.99

2

4.08

4+

4.26

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.79

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

3.88

4.12