2020 12 11 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Leeds vs West Ham at 11 December 2020
Wolves vs Aston Villa at 12 December 2020
Man United vs Man City at 12 December 2020
Everton vs Chelsea at 12 December 2020
Newcastle vs West Brom at 12 December 2020
Leicester vs Brighton at 13 December 2020
Southampton vs Sheffield United at 13 December 2020
Fulham vs Liverpool at 13 December 2020
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham at 13 December 2020
Arsenal vs Burnley at 13 December 2020


Leeds vs West Ham at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Leeds and West Ham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leeds

2.30

3.64

-16.0

Draw

3.64

4.00

-2.5

West Ham

3.04

2.11

14.5

Over 2.5

1.60

1.90

-9.9

Under 2.5

2.41

2.11

5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham, Under 2.5 (14.5 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leeds in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance at home.
Leeds, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Chelsea

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Everton

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Arsenal

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Crystal Palace

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Nov

Leicester

H

1

4

L

O

G

23 Oct

Aston Villa

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Oct

Wolves

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Man City

H

1

1

D

U

G


West Ham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance as a guest.
West Ham, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Nov

Aston Villa

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Fulham

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Liverpool

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Man City

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Tottenham

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Leicester

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, West Ham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leeds

36%

30%

18%

16%

West Ham

21%

31%

25%

23%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.64 goals and West Ham to score 1.34 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.12 goals and West Ham to score 1.51 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the guest team West Ham to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

4.00

1

5.71

2-3

2.13

2

4.48

4+

3.57

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.00

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.90

6+

27.78

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.57

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.97

3.33

2.23

2-3 goals

3.79

5.00

1.87

4+ goals

3.18

3.46

2.52

Ov 1.5

3.54

4.29

2.07

Un 1.5

3.97

3.33

2.23

Ov 2.5

3.01

6.51

1.94

Un 2.5

4.73

2.80

2.32

Ov 3.5

3.18

3.46

2.52

Un 3.5

3.85

4.26

1.98

Goal-Goal

3.54

2.89

2.69

No Goal

3.74

6.59

1.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.88

5.09

2.19

NG+Un 2.5

3.79

6.59

1.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wolves vs Aston Villa at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolves and Aston Villa for Premier League (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wolves

2.32

3.48

-14.4

Draw

3.32

3.98

-5.0

Aston Villa

3.26

2.16

15.6

Over 2.5

2.06

1.89

4.4

Under 2.5

1.80

2.12

-8.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Over 2.5 (15.6 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolves in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance at home.
Wolves, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Liverpool

A

0

4

L

O

N

29 Nov

Arsenal

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Nov

Southampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Leicester

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Oct

Crystal Palace

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Newcastle

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Oct

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Fulham

H

1

0

W

U

N


Aston Villa in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance as a guest.
Aston Villa, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Nov

West Ham

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Nov

Arsenal

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Southampton

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Oct

Leeds

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Leicester

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Liverpool

H

7

2

W

O

G

28 Sep

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Aston Villa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wolves

36%

27%

26%

12%

Aston Villa

22%

31%

25%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.35 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.14 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Aston Villa to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

4.10

1

5.95

2-3

2.08

2

4.41

4+

3.60

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.10

5

11.36

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.60

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.28

3.21

2.20

2-3 goals

2.96

5.78

2.04

4+ goals

4.09

3.02

2.36

Ov 1.5

3.30

4.33

2.15

Un 1.5

4.28

3.21

2.20

Ov 2.5

3.03

5.77

2.01

Un 2.5

4.21

2.96

2.35

Ov 3.5

4.09

3.02

2.36

Un 3.5

3.31

4.55

2.09

Goal-Goal

3.42

2.91

2.75

No Goal

3.57

6.49

1.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.86

4.63

2.30

NG+Un 2.5

3.46

6.49

1.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Man United vs Man City at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Man United and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man United

4.38

3.17

8.7

Draw

4.17

3.68

3.2

Man City

1.76

2.42

-15.5

Over 2.5

1.67

2.09

-12.0

Under 2.5

2.26

1.92

7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Man United, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.7 %, 3.2 %, 7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man United in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance at home.
Man United, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

West Ham

A

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Southampton

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

West Brom

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Arsenal

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Chelsea

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Newcastle

A

4

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Tottenham

H

1

6

L

O

G


Man City in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Fulham

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Burnley

H

5

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

West Ham

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Arsenal

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Leeds

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man United

30%

41%

12%

17%

Man City

26%

33%

23%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 0.96 goals and Man City to score 1.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.15 goals and Man City to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.50

1

4.83

2-3

2.14

2

4.24

4+

4.05

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.50

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.62

2.86

2-3 goals

4.06

3.46

2.15

4+ goals

2.66

4.26

2.57

Ov 1.5

3.43

3.70

2.28

Un 1.5

2.67

3.62

2.86

Ov 2.5

2.72

8.24

1.96

Un 2.5

3.76

2.44

3.09

Ov 3.5

2.66

4.26

2.57

Un 3.5

3.39

3.52

2.38

Goal-Goal

3.87

2.67

2.72

No Goal

2.66

6.14

2.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.86

6.55

2.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

6.14

2.29


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Everton vs Chelsea at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Everton

4.22

3.58

4.2

Draw

4.08

4.02

0.4

Chelsea

1.79

2.12

-8.7

Over 2.5

1.62

1.88

-8.5

Under 2.5

2.35

2.13

4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Everton, Draw, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 0.4 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Everton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Leeds

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Fulham

A

3

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Newcastle

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Oct

Liverpool

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Brighton

H

4

2

W

O

G


Chelsea in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Leeds

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Tottenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Newcastle

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Sheffield United

H

4

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Burnley

A

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Man United

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Southampton

H

3

3

D

O

G

03 Oct

Crystal Palace

H

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Everton

36%

30%

18%

16%

Chelsea

21%

31%

25%

23%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.02 goals and Chelsea to score 1.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.94 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.14 goals and Chelsea to score 1.51 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

4.03

1

5.78

2-3

2.14

2

4.52

4+

3.55

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.03

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

27.03

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.55

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-