# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Leeds vs West Ham at 11 December 2020**** Wolves vs Aston Villa at 12 December 2020**** Man United vs Man City at 12 December 2020**** Everton vs Chelsea at 12 December 2020**** Newcastle vs West Brom at 12 December 2020**** Leicester vs Brighton at 13 December 2020**** Southampton vs Sheffield United at 13 December 2020**** Fulham vs Liverpool at 13 December 2020**** Crystal Palace vs Tottenham at 13 December 2020**** Arsenal vs Burnley at 13 December 2020**

###
Leeds vs West Ham at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leeds** and **West Ham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **11 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leeds |
2.30 |
3.64 |
-16.0 |

Draw |
3.64 |
4.00 |
-2.5 |

West Ham |
3.04 |
2.11 |
14.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.90 |
-9.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.11 |
5.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Ham, Under 2.5 (14.5 %, 5.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** at home**.

Leeds,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Everton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Aston Villa |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Oct |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Man City |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** as a guest**.

West Ham,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Man City |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Tottenham |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leeds** and the red line for guest team, **West Ham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leeds |
36% |
30% |
18% |
16% |

West Ham |
21% |
31% |
25% |
23% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leeds** to score **1.64 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.98** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leeds** to score **1.12 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and the guest team **West Ham ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
3.57 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |

6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.97 |
3.33 |
2.23 |

2-3 goals |
3.79 |
5.00 |
1.87 |

4+ goals |
3.18 |
3.46 |
2.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.54 |
4.29 |
2.07 |

Un 1.5 |
3.97 |
3.33 |
2.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.01 |
6.51 |
1.94 |

Un 2.5 |
4.73 |
2.80 |
2.32 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.18 |
3.46 |
2.52 |

Un 3.5 |
3.85 |
4.26 |
1.98 |

Goal-Goal |
3.54 |
2.89 |
2.69 |

No Goal |
3.74 |
6.59 |
1.72 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.88 |
5.09 |
2.19 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.79 |
6.59 |
1.86 |

####
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###
Wolves vs Aston Villa at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolves** and **Aston Villa** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolves |
2.32 |
3.48 |
-14.4 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.98 |
-5.0 |

Aston Villa |
3.26 |
2.16 |
15.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.89 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.12 |
-8.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aston Villa, Over 2.5 (15.6 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** at home**.

Wolves,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Oct |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Oct |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** as a guest**.

Aston Villa,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Leicester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Liverpool |
H |
7 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Sep |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolves** and the red line for guest team, **Aston Villa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolves |
36% |
27% |
26% |
12% |

Aston Villa |
22% |
31% |
25% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.48 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the guest team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
4.10 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.60 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |

5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.12 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.60 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.28 |
3.21 |
2.20 |

2-3 goals |
2.96 |
5.78 |
2.04 |

4+ goals |
4.09 |
3.02 |
2.36 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.30 |
4.33 |
2.15 |

Un 1.5 |
4.28 |
3.21 |
2.20 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.03 |
5.77 |
2.01 |

Un 2.5 |
4.21 |
2.96 |
2.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.09 |
3.02 |
2.36 |

Un 3.5 |
3.31 |
4.55 |
2.09 |

Goal-Goal |
3.42 |
2.91 |
2.75 |

No Goal |
3.57 |
6.49 |
1.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.86 |
4.63 |
2.30 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.46 |
6.49 |
1.94 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man United vs Man City at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man United** and **Man City** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man United |
4.38 |
3.17 |
8.7 |

Draw |
4.17 |
3.68 |
3.2 |

Man City |
1.76 |
2.42 |
-15.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.09 |
-12.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
1.92 |
7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Man United, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.7 %, 3.2 %, 7.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** at home**.

Man United,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Newcastle |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** as a guest**.

Man City,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man United** and the red line for guest team, **Man City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man United |
30% |
41% |
12% |
17% |

Man City |
26% |
33% |
23% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man United** to score **0.96 ** goals and **Man City** to score **1.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.86** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **0.94** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man United** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Man City** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.62 |
2.86 |

2-3 goals |
4.06 |
3.46 |
2.15 |

4+ goals |
2.66 |
4.26 |
2.57 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.43 |
3.70 |
2.28 |

Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.62 |
2.86 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.72 |
8.24 |
1.96 |

Un 2.5 |
3.76 |
2.44 |
3.09 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.66 |
4.26 |
2.57 |

Un 3.5 |
3.39 |
3.52 |
2.38 |

Goal-Goal |
3.87 |
2.67 |
2.72 |

No Goal |
2.66 |
6.14 |
2.17 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.86 |
6.55 |
2.01 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
6.14 |
2.29 |

####
Go to Top

###
Everton vs Chelsea at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Everton** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Everton |
4.22 |
3.58 |
4.2 |

Draw |
4.08 |
4.02 |
0.4 |

Chelsea |
1.79 |
2.12 |
-8.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.88 |
-8.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.13 |
4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Everton, Draw, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 0.4 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** at home**.

Everton,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Liverpool |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Brighton |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Sheffield United |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Burnley |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Everton** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Everton |
36% |
30% |
18% |
16% |

Chelsea |
21% |
31% |
25% |
23% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.94** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.91** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.52 |
4+ |
3.55 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
27.03 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |