# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Oviedo vs Tenerife at 11 December 2020**** Lugo vs Ponferradina at 11 December 2020**** Castellon vs Albacete at 12 December 2020**** Leganes vs Mallorca at 12 December 2020**** Fuenlabrada vs Mirandes at 12 December 2020**** Logrones vs Espanol at 13 December 2020**** Las Palmas vs Alcorcon at 13 December 2020**** Cartagena vs Sabadell at 13 December 2020**** Almeria vs Malaga at 13 December 2020**** Sp Gijon vs Zaragoza at 13 December 2020**** Girona vs Vallecano at 14 December 2020**

###
Oviedo vs Tenerife at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oviedo** and **Tenerife** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **11 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oviedo |
2.52 |
1.94 |
11.9 |

Draw |
2.82 |
3.85 |
-9.5 |

Tenerife |
3.19 |
4.48 |
-9.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.16 |
10.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.86 |
-17.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oviedo, Over 2.5 (11.9 %, 10.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oviedo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oviedo** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance** at home**.

Oviedo,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Las Palmas |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Tenerife** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tenerife** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance** as a guest**.

Tenerife,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Dec |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Albacete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Nov |
Las Palmas |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oviedo** and the red line for guest team, **Tenerife. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oviedo |
19% |
34% |
27% |
20% |

Tenerife |
39% |
36% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oviedo** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Tenerife** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.91** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oviedo** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Tenerife** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Oviedo ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.08 |
3.74 |
3.96 |

2-3 goals |
1.85 |
4.12 |
4.60 |

4+ goals |
1.97 |
3.44 |
4.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.89 |
3.89 |
4.70 |

Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.74 |
3.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.45 |
3.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.72 |
5.13 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
3.44 |
4.95 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.98 |
4.35 |

Goal-Goal |
2.43 |
2.66 |
4.71 |

No Goal |
1.62 |
6.84 |
4.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.98 |
3.53 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.84 |
3.95 |

####
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###
Lugo vs Ponferradina at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lugo** and **Ponferradina** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **11 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lugo |
2.65 |
2.32 |
5.4 |

Draw |
2.83 |
3.55 |
-7.2 |

Ponferradina |
3.01 |
3.48 |
-4.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.40 |
6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.45 |
1.72 |
-10.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lugo, Over 2.5 (5.4 %, 6.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lugo** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lugo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance** at home**.

Lugo,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Ponferradina** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ponferradina** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance** as a guest**.

Ponferradina,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Logrones |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Zaragoza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lugo** and the red line for guest team, **Ponferradina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lugo |
26% |
35% |
25% |
14% |

Ponferradina |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lugo** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.95** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lugo** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.17 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.17 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.39 |
3.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
3.86 |
3.53 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.13 |
3.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.63 |
3.59 |

Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.39 |
3.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.97 |
2.99 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.63 |
3.94 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.13 |
3.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.66 |
3.42 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.52 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
2.00 |
5.65 |
3.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.78 |
2.94 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.65 |
3.07 |

####
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###
Castellon vs Albacete at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Castellon** and **Albacete** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Castellon |
2.25 |
2.02 |
5.1 |

Draw |
2.96 |
3.76 |
-7.2 |

Albacete |
3.68 |
4.20 |
-3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.21 |
8.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.83 |
-14.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Castellon, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 8.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Castellon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Castellon** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance** at home**.

Castellon,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Dec |
Mallorca |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Mirandes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Alcorcon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Oviedo |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Albacete** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Albacete** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance** as a guest**.

Albacete,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Girona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Nov |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Castellon** and the red line for guest team, **Albacete. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Castellon |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |

Albacete |
38% |
37% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Castellon** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Albacete** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.96** goals in the game and the home team **Castellon ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Castellon** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Albacete** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Castellon ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.18 |
3.64 |
3.74 |

2-3 goals |
1.92 |
4.02 |
4.36 |

4+ goals |
2.06 |
3.30 |
4.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.78 |
4.46 |

Un 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.64 |
3.74 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
7.16 |
3.70 |

Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.68 |
4.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.30 |
4.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
3.87 |
4.11 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.61 |
4.61 |

No Goal |
1.69 |
6.47 |
3.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.83 |
3.43 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.47 |
3.69 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leganes vs Mallorca at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leganes** and **Mallorca** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leganes |
2.75 |
2.57 |
2.5 |

Draw |
2.63 |
3.47 |
-9.2 |

Mallorca |
3.11 |
3.10 |
0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.49 |
5.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.67 |
-11.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leganes, Mallorca, Over 2.5 (2.5 %, 0.1 %, 5.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leganes** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leganes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance** at home**.

Leganes,** at home**, had 8 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Albacete |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Mirandes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Mallorca** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mallorca** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance** as a guest**.

Mallorca,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Dec |
Castellon |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Logrones |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Nov |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Girona |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leganes** and the red line for guest team, **Mallorca. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leganes |
29% |
36% |
23% |
11% |

Mallorca |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leganes** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Mallorca** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.89** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leganes** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Mallorca** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.05 |

1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
5.65 |

3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.65 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |