2020 12 11 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Oviedo vs Tenerife at 11 December 2020
Lugo vs Ponferradina at 11 December 2020
Castellon vs Albacete at 12 December 2020
Leganes vs Mallorca at 12 December 2020
Fuenlabrada vs Mirandes at 12 December 2020
Logrones vs Espanol at 13 December 2020
Las Palmas vs Alcorcon at 13 December 2020
Cartagena vs Sabadell at 13 December 2020
Almeria vs Malaga at 13 December 2020
Sp Gijon vs Zaragoza at 13 December 2020
Girona vs Vallecano at 14 December 2020


Oviedo vs Tenerife at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Oviedo and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oviedo

2.52

1.94

11.9

Draw

2.82

3.85

-9.5

Tenerife

3.19

4.48

-9.0

Over 2.5

2.82

2.16

10.8

Under 2.5

1.41

1.86

-17.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oviedo, Over 2.5 (11.9 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oviedo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance at home.
Oviedo, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Sabadell

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Dec

Alcorcon

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Nov

Almeria

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Fuenlabrada

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Castellon

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Las Palmas

A

2

1

W

O

G


Tenerife in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tenerife in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance as a guest.
Tenerife, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Leganes

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Dec

Sabadell

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Albacete

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Nov

Almeria

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Logrones

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Nov

Las Palmas

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oviedo and the red line for guest team, Tenerife.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oviedo

19%

34%

27%

20%

Tenerife

39%

36%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.03 goals and Tenerife to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.47 goals and Tenerife to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.61

1

4.93

2-3

1.96

2

3.82

4+

4.69

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.61

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.08

3.74

3.96

2-3 goals

1.85

4.12

4.60

4+ goals

1.97

3.44

4.95

Ov 1.5

1.89

3.89

4.70

Un 1.5

2.08

3.74

3.96

Ov 2.5

1.64

7.45

3.88

Un 2.5

2.28

2.72

5.13

Ov 3.5

1.97

3.44

4.95

Un 3.5

1.93

3.98

4.35

Goal-Goal

2.43

2.66

4.71

No Goal

1.62

6.84

4.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

5.98

3.53

NG+Un 2.5

1.76

6.84

3.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lugo vs Ponferradina at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lugo and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lugo

2.65

2.32

5.4

Draw

2.83

3.55

-7.2

Ponferradina

3.01

3.48

-4.5

Over 2.5

2.81

2.40

6.1

Under 2.5

1.45

1.72

-10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (5.4 %, 6.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lugo in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance at home.
Lugo, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Mirandes

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Nov

Malaga

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Nov

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Albacete

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Vallecano

H

1

0

W

U

N


Ponferradina in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Las Palmas

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Logrones

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Leganes

H

3

2

W

O

G

25 Nov

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Zaragoza

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Nov

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Mallorca

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Nov

Alcorcon

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lugo and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lugo

26%

35%

25%

14%

Ponferradina

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.01 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.95 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.26 goals and Ponferradina to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.17

1

4.50

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.17

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.39

3.25

2-3 goals

2.18

3.86

3.53

4+ goals

2.41

3.13

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.63

3.59

Un 1.5

2.52

3.39

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.97

2.99

Un 2.5

2.74

2.63

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.13

3.76

Un 3.5

2.30

3.66

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.52

4.03

No Goal

2.00

5.65

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.78

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.65

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Castellon vs Albacete at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Albacete for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Castellon

2.25

2.02

5.1

Draw

2.96

3.76

-7.2

Albacete

3.68

4.20

-3.4

Over 2.5

2.71

2.21

8.3

Under 2.5

1.44

1.83

-14.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Castellon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance at home.
Castellon, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Mallorca

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Dec

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Mirandes

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Alcorcon

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Vallecano

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Nov

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Oviedo

A

0

4

L

O

N

02 Nov

Sp Gijon

A

0

1

L

U

N


Albacete in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance as a guest.
Albacete, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Girona

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Dec

Sp Gijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Tenerife

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Nov

Logrones

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Nov

Almeria

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Lugo

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Nov

Leganes

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Cartagena

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Albacete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Castellon

21%

34%

26%

18%

Albacete

38%

37%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.14 goals and Albacete to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and the home team Castellon to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.42 goals and Albacete to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Castellon to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.52

1

4.85

2-3

1.98

2

3.80

4+

4.81

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.52

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.18

3.64

3.74

2-3 goals

1.92

4.02

4.36

4+ goals

2.06

3.30

4.73

Ov 1.5

1.96

3.78

4.46

Un 1.5

2.18

3.64

3.74

Ov 2.5

1.70

7.16

3.70

Un 2.5

2.39

2.68

4.80

Ov 3.5

2.06

3.30

4.73

Un 3.5

2.01

3.87

4.11

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.61

4.61

No Goal

1.69

6.47

3.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.83

3.43

NG+Un 2.5

1.84

6.47

3.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leganes vs Mallorca at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Leganes and Mallorca for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leganes

2.75

2.57

2.5

Draw

2.63

3.47

-9.2

Mallorca

3.11

3.10

0.1

Over 2.5

2.91

2.49

5.8

Under 2.5

1.41

1.67

-11.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leganes, Mallorca, Over 2.5 (2.5 %, 0.1 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leganes in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leganes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance at home.
Leganes, at home, had 8 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Tenerife

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Vallecano

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Ponferradina

A

2

3

L

O

G

26 Nov

Espanol

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Malaga

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Nov

Alcorcon

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Albacete

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N


Mallorca in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance as a guest.
Mallorca, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Castellon

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Dec

Almeria

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Logrones

H

4

0

W

O

N

25 Nov

Cartagena

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Sp Gijon

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Nov

Girona

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Ponferradina

H

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Zaragoza

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leganes and the red line for guest team, Mallorca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leganes

29%

36%

23%

11%

Mallorca

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leganes to score 0.98 goals and Mallorca to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.89 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.17 goals and Mallorca to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.05

1

4.39

2-3

2.02

2

3.70

4+

5.65

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.05

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

5.65

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals