2020 12 11 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sassuolo vs Benevento at 11 December 2020
Torino vs Udinese at 12 December 2020
Lazio vs Verona at 12 December 2020
Crotone vs Spezia at 12 December 2020
Genoa vs Juventus at 13 December 2020
Napoli vs Sampdoria at 13 December 2020
Atalanta vs Fiorentina at 13 December 2020
Cagliari vs Inter at 13 December 2020
Bologna vs Roma at 13 December 2020
Milan vs Parma at 13 December 2020


Sassuolo vs Benevento at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Benevento for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

1.64

2.31

-17.7

Draw

4.36

3.83

3.2

Benevento

4.92

3.27

10.3

Over 2.5

1.55

1.98

-14.0

Under 2.5

2.47

2.02

9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Benevento, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 10.3 %, 9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Roma

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Inter

H

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Verona

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Udinese

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Napoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Oct

Torino

H

3

3

D

O

G

18 Oct

Bologna

A

4

3

W

O

G

03 Oct

Crotone

H

4

1

W

O

G


Benevento in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance as a guest.
Benevento, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Fiorentina

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Spezia

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Nov

Verona

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Napoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Roma

A

2

5

L

O

G

04 Oct

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Benevento.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

26%

26%

31%

17%

Benevento

33%

30%

25%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 2.12 goals and Benevento to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the home team Sassuolo to win by 1.19 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.39 goals and Benevento to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

4.00

1

6.10

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.88

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

4.00

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

2.91

3.21

2-3 goals

1.94

6.28

3.08

4+ goals

2.77

2.66

3.79

Ov 1.5

2.16

4.27

3.30

Un 1.5

2.91

2.91

3.21

Ov 2.5

2.07

5.19

3.09

Un 2.5

2.62

3.02

3.49

Ov 3.5

2.77

2.66

3.79

Un 3.5

2.18

4.51

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.82

3.73

No Goal

2.05

5.87

2.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

4.28

3.14

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

5.87

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Torino vs Udinese at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Udinese for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torino

2.88

2.35

7.8

Draw

3.30

3.60

-2.5

Udinese

2.53

3.37

-9.9

Over 2.5

1.94

1.98

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.89

2.02

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torino (7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torino in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Juventus

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Sampdoria

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Inter

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Nov

Crotone

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Nov

Genoa

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Lazio

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Oct

Sassuolo

A

3

3

D

O

G

18 Oct

Cagliari

H

2

3

L

O

G


Udinese in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance as a guest.
Udinese, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Nov

Lazio

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Genoa

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Sassuolo

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Fiorentina

A

2

3

L

O

G

18 Oct

Parma

H

3

2

W

O

G

03 Oct

Roma

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Sep

Spezia

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torino

29%

14%

42%

14%

Udinese

37%

22%

29%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.2 goals and Udinese to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.42 goals and Udinese to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.26

0-1

4.44

1

8.55

2-3

2.03

2

3.70

4+

3.55

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.44

5

10.64

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

3.55

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.25

2.08

3.52

2-3 goals

1.65

15.90

3.02

4+ goals

3.92

2.03

3.97

Ov 1.5

2.09

4.56

3.31

Un 1.5

4.25

2.08

3.52

Ov 2.5

2.33

3.63

3.39

Un 2.5

2.39

3.56

3.32

Ov 3.5

3.92

2.03

3.97

Un 3.5

2.04

5.17

3.16

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.62

3.98

No Goal

2.13

5.13

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

2.99

3.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

5.13

3.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Lazio vs Verona at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lazio and Verona for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lazio

1.66

2.78

-24.3

Draw

4.15

3.79

2.3

Verona

5.10

2.66

18.0

Over 2.5

1.63

2.16

-15.1

Under 2.5

2.33

1.86

10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Verona, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 18 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lazio in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance at home.
Lazio, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Spezia

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Udinese

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Torino

A

4

3

W

O

G

24 Oct

Bologna

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Sampdoria

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Oct

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G


Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance as a guest.
Verona, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Atalanta

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Sassuolo

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Milan

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Nov

Benevento

H

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Juventus

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Oct

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Parma

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lazio and the red line for guest team, Verona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lazio

30%

37%

20%

14%

Verona

34%

23%

28%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lazio to score 2.03 goals and Verona to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Lazio to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lazio to score 1.17 goals and Verona to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.71

0-1

3.33

1

5.08

2-3

2.10

2

4.20

4+

4.48

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.33

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.36

2.91

4.29

2-3 goals

2.96

5.55

2.07

4+ goals

3.10

3.01

2.90

Ov 1.5

3.00

4.38

2.28

Un 1.5

2.36

2.91

4.29

Ov 2.5

2.78

6.24

2.08

Un 2.5

2.77

2.85

3.47

Ov 3.5

3.10

3.01

2.90

Un 3.5

2.70

4.11

2.59

Goal-Goal

3.89

2.87

2.54

No Goal

2.24

5.25

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.16

5.04

2.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

5.25

2.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Crotone vs Spezia at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Crotone and Spezia for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crotone

2.59

3.31

-8.4

Draw

3.49

3.94

-3.3

Spezia

2.69

2.25

7.3

Over 2.5

1.81

1.92

-3.2

Under 2.5

2.02

2.09

-1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia (7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crotone in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance at home.
Crotone, at home, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Napoli

H

0

4

L

O

N

29 Nov

Bologna

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Lazio

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Atalanta

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Cagliari

A

2

4

L

O

G

17 Oct

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Sassuolo

A

1

4

L

O

G


Spezia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance as a guest.
Spezia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Lazio

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Cagliari

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Atalanta

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Juventus

H

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Parma

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Fiorentina

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

Milan

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crotone and the red line for guest team, Spezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crotone

33%

30%

26%

12%

Spezia

24%

30%

21%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.34 goals and Spezia to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.16 goals and Spezia to score 1.44 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.94

1

5.78

2-3

2.12

2

4.46

4+

3.65

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals