2020 12 11 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Chievo vs Reggina at 11 December 2020
Venezia vs Monza at 11 December 2020
Lecce vs Frosinone at 12 December 2020
Pescara vs Vicenza at 12 December 2020
Pisa vs Pordenone at 12 December 2020
Virtus Entella vs Empoli at 12 December 2020
Cosenza vs Reggiana at 12 December 2020
Cittadella vs Spal at 12 December 2020
Brescia vs Salernitana at 12 December 2020
Cremonese vs Ascoli at 12 December 2020


Chievo vs Reggina at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Chievo and Reggina for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chievo

1.94

2.03

-2.3

Draw

3.24

3.82

-4.7

Reggina

4.11

4.07

0.2

Over 2.5

2.10

2.24

-3.0

Under 2.5

1.75

1.81

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggina (0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chievo in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance at home.
Chievo, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Frosinone

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Nov

Lecce

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Cosenza

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Monza

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Salernitana

H

1

2

L

O

G


Reggina in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggina in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance as a guest.
Reggina, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Brescia

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Monza

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Pisa

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Empoli

A

0

3

L

O

N

01 Nov

Spal

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Pordenone

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Oct

Cosenza

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Virtus Entella

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chievo and the red line for guest team, Reggina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chievo

18%

45%

16%

21%

Reggina

42%

30%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.48 goals and Reggina to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Chievo to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.4 goals and Reggina to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Chievo to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.13

1

4.12

2-3

2.12

2

4.24

4+

4.76

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.13

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.71

4.20

5.70

2-3 goals

2.35

3.45

3.52

4+ goals

2.02

4.29

3.68

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.67

3.57

Un 1.5

1.71

4.20

5.70

Ov 2.5

1.86

9.10

2.84

Un 2.5

2.20

2.61

6.17

Ov 3.5

2.02

4.29

3.68

Un 3.5

2.04

3.71

4.16

Goal-Goal

3.16

2.56

3.41

No Goal

1.54

6.89

4.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

6.94

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

1.66

6.89

4.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Venezia vs Monza at 11 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Monza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 11 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

2.47

1.99

9.8

Draw

3.06

3.61

-5.0

Monza

2.94

4.55

-12.0

Over 2.5

2.07

2.40

-6.6

Under 2.5

1.76

1.71

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Venezia, Under 2.5 (9.8 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Brescia

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Empoli

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Pescara

H

4

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Cremonese

A

0

0

D

U

N


Monza in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance as a guest.
Monza, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Reggiana

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Dec

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Reggina

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Frosinone

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Cittadella

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Chievo

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Pisa

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Monza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

19%

44%

16%

21%

Monza

41%

36%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.26 goals and Monza to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.39 goals and Monza to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.06

1

4.00

2-3

2.07

2

3.89

4+

5.32

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.06

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.41

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.79

4.25

4.88

2-3 goals

2.30

3.01

4.28

4+ goals

1.74

4.70

4.70

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.34

4.39

Un 1.5

1.79

4.25

4.88

Ov 2.5

1.65

10.38

3.37

Un 2.5

2.35

2.45

6.02

Ov 3.5

1.74

4.70

4.70

Un 3.5

2.06

3.41

4.51

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.38

4.31

No Goal

1.56

6.77

4.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

7.93

2.86

NG+Un 2.5

1.70

6.77

4.36


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Lecce vs Frosinone at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lecce and Frosinone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lecce

2.00

2.35

-7.4

Draw

3.28

3.65

-3.1

Frosinone

3.89

3.33

4.3

Over 2.5

1.72

2.19

-12.5

Under 2.5

2.13

1.84

7.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Frosinone, Under 2.5 (4.3 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lecce in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance at home.
Lecce, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Venezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Nov

Chievo

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Reggiana

H

7

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Pescara

H

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Cremonese

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Oct

Brescia

A

0

3

L

O

N


Frosinone in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance as a guest.
Frosinone, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Chievo

H

3

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Brescia

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Nov

Cosenza

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Cremonese

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Virtus Entella

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Frosinone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lecce

24%

34%

28%

14%

Frosinone

33%

36%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.7 goals and Frosinone to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.31 goals and Frosinone to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.57

1

5.00

2-3

1.98

2

3.79

4+

4.65

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.57

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.50

3.15

2-3 goals

2.11

4.07

3.56

4+ goals

2.79

3.07

3.16

Ov 1.5

2.28

3.71

3.43

Un 1.5

2.52

3.50

3.15

Ov 2.5

2.04

6.51

2.81

Un 2.5

2.68

2.67

3.97

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.07

3.16

Un 3.5

2.24

3.85

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.84

2.62

3.76

No Goal

1.98

6.15

3.00

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.49

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

6.15

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Pescara vs Vicenza at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pescara and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pescara

2.76

2.57

2.7

Draw

3.07

3.69

-5.5

Vicenza

2.95

2.94

0.1

Over 2.5

2.09

2.07

0.5

Under 2.5

1.79

1.94

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pescara, Vicenza, Over 2.5 (2.7 %, 0.1 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pescara in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance at home.
Pescara, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Dec

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Cittadella

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Lecce

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Frosinone

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Venezia

A

0

4

L

O

N

17 Oct

Empoli

H

1

2

L

O

G


Vicenza in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance as a guest.
Vicenza, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Monza

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Empoli

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Nov

Cremonese

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Pisa

H

4

4

D

O

G

24 Oct

Spal

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Salernitana

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Pordenone

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pescara and the red line for guest team, Vicenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pescara

27%

30%

33%

10%

Vicenza

27%

39%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.22 goals and Vicenza to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.27 goals and Vicenza to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.91

1

5.43

2-3

1.94

2

3.83

4+

4.35

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.91

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-