2020 12 11 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Andorra vs Zaragoza at 11 December 2020
Real Betis vs Baskonia at 12 December 2020
Manresa vs Joventut Badalona at 12 December 2020
Tenerife vs San Pablo Burgos at 12 December 2020
Zaragoza vs Bilbao at 13 December 2020
Obradoiro vs Barcelona at 13 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Unicaja Malaga at 13 December 2020
Gran Canaria vs Fuenlabrada at 13 December 2020
Estudiantes vs Valencia at 13 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Andorra vs Zaragoza at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

1.47

0

Zaragoza

2.7

0

Andorra HC

-4.5

0

Zaragoza HC

+4.5

0

Point Line

163.5

0

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

72

55

6

4

W 3

72

60

Dec 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

76

5

4

W 2

80

77

Nov 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

79

62

4

4

W 1

74

68

Oct 25

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

71

82

3

4

L 1

77

78

Oct 17

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

87

82

3

3

W 2

89

76

Oct 10

A

Manresa

W

69

64

2

3

W 1

67

62

Oct 3

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

87

89

1

3

L 3

89

84

Sep 27

H

Unicaja

L

78

81

1

2

L 2

81

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

81

88

2

10

L 6

83

83

Nov 22

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

85

97

2

9

L 5

92

92

Nov 14

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

82

2

8

L 4

80

79

Nov 8

H

Manresa

L

102

103

2

7

L 3

99

100

Oct 30

H

Unicaja

L

63

92

2

6

L 2

65

87

Oct 24

A

Valencia Basket

L

84

93

2

5

L 1

84

91

Oct 18

H

UCAM Murcia

W

98

86

2

4

W 1

99

86

Oct 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

67

70

1

4

L 2

63

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Andorra (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Andorra will expected to score 83 points and the Zaragoza 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Andorra

Zaragoza

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

16.00

14.50

DRB

24.40

22.40

AST-TO

1.10

1.12

TRB

34.80

29.30

FTM

12.60

13.80

BL

3.60

2.20

FTA

17.20

19.60

PF-Fewer

21.20

19.80

ST

7.20

6.80

TO-Fewer

14.60

12.90

Ftper

0.73

0.70

ORBper

0.43

0.31

ORB

10.40

6.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Betis vs Baskonia at 12 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 12 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Betis

3.25

2.05

Baskonia

1.35

1.96

Real Betis HC

+6.5

1.50

Baskonia HC

-6.5

-1.50

Point Line

155.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

55

72

2

10

L 4

59

74

Nov 22

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

89

96

2

9

L 3

84

97

Nov 14

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

53

82

2

8

L 2

58

78

Nov 8

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

73

77

2

7

L 1

75

70

Oct 31

H

Acunsa GBC

W

74

62

2

6

W 1

69

71

Oct 27

H

Real Madrid

L

65

84

1

6

L 4

71

78

Oct 24

A

Manresa

L

81

93

1

5

L 3

79

90

Oct 18

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

80

81

1

4

L 2

77

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

Acunsa GBC

W

83

71

9

4

W 1

78

81

Dec 2

A

Real Madrid

L

83

92

8

4

L 1

91

86

Nov 15

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

80

74

8

3

W 4

78

76

Nov 7

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

82

68

7

3

W 3

77

69

Nov 1

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

75

71

6

3

W 2

70

78

Oct 28

H

Manresa

W

87

68

5

3

W 1

85

66

Oct 24

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

82

83

4

3

L 1

84

79

Oct 18

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

W

82

71

4

2

W 1

89

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 75 points and the Baskonia 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Betis

Baskonia

FG%

0.48

0.55

ASS

13.90

16.80

DRB

19.80

22.80

AST-TO

1.09

1.19

TRB

29.30

30.20

FTM

14.70

9.90

BL

2.80

2.80

FTA

20.20

14.10

PF-Fewer

20.10

19.50

ST

8.80

7.60

TO-Fewer

12.70

14.10

Ftper

0.73

0.70

ORBper

0.48

0.32

ORB

9.50

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Manresa vs Joventut Badalona at 12 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Joventut Badalona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 12 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Manresa

2.35

1.35

Joventut Badalona

1.6

3.82

Manresa HC

+3.5

-7.00

Joventut Badalona HC

-3.5

7.00

Point Line

165.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 22

A

Real Madrid

L

78

100

6

6

L 2

86

93

Nov 12

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

80

88

6

5

L 1

83

80

Nov 8

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

103

102

6

4

W 2

92

113

Oct 31

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

94

78

5

4

W 1

88

79

Oct 28

A

Baskonia

L

68

87

4

4

L 1

71

86

Oct 24

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

93

81

4

3

W 2

93

89

Oct 17

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

102

100

3

3

W 1

100

96

Oct 10

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

64

69

2

3

L 1

69

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

88

81

8

3

W 3

78

90

Nov 22

A

Acunsa GBC

W

99

68

7

3

W 2

92

78

Nov 1

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

97

70

6

3

W 1

94

70

Oct 30

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

84

93

5

3

L 1

83

89

Oct 24

H

Baskonia

W

83

82

5

2

W 1

87

81

Oct 17

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

82

86

4

2

L 1

85

78

Oct 11

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

88

81

4

1

W 2

83

82

Oct 3

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

89

87

3

1

W 1

96

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Joventut Badalona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 81 points and the Joventut Badalona 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Manresa

Joventut Badalona

FG%

0.58

0.53

ASS

14.80

12.90

DRB

21.10

19.20

AST-TO

0.99

1.17

TRB

27.80

27.00

FTM

17.10

12.80

BL

3.70

2.20

FTA

22.20

16.60

PF-Fewer

20.30

20.50

ST

9.30

7.80

TO-Fewer

14.90

11.00

Ftper

0.77

0.77

ORBper

0.32

0.41

ORB

6.70

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Tenerife vs San Pablo Burgos at 12 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 12 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tenerife

1.36

2.14

San Pablo Burgos

3.2

1.88

Tenerife HC

-6.5

2.00

San Pablo Burgos HC

+6.5

-2.00

Point Line

164.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

107

62

11

1

W 5

104

63

Nov 22

A

Valencia Basket

W

95

89

10

1

W 4

95

88

Nov 15

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

99

80

9

1

W 3

92

87

Nov 12

A

Manresa

W

88

80

8

1

W 2

86

78

Nov 8

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

77

73

7

1

W 1

77

80

Nov 1

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

81

6

1

L 1

80

77

Oct 25

A

Unicaja

W

86

79

6

0

W 5

89

75

Oct 17

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

86

82

5

0

W 4

88

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

Real Madrid

L

60

74

8

4

L 1

66

69

Nov 21

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

63

8

3

W 4

76

64

Nov 15

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

71

7

3

W 3

88

71

Nov 12

H

UCAM Murcia

W

89

84

6

3

W 2

90

84

Nov 8

A

Valencia Basket

W

99

81

5

3

W 1

99

80

Nov 1

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

78

99

4

3

L 2

77

95

Oct 17

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

82

87

4

2

L 1

88

89

Oct 11

H

Baskonia

W

91

89

4

1

W 4

95

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tenerife (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tenerife will expected to score 84 points and the San Pablo Burgos 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tenerife

San Pablo Burgos

FG%

0.53

0.50

ASS

16.30

14.40

DRB

18.50

22.30

AST-TO

1.27

0.91

TRB

28.40

31.90

FTM

12.70

15.10

BL

2.40

2.40

FTA

17.20

19.00

PF-Fewer

21.60

19.50

ST

7.10

8.60

TO-Fewer

12.80

15.80

Ftper

0.74

0.79

ORBper

0.54

0.43

ORB

9.90

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zaragoza vs Bilbao at 13 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Bilbao for Liga ACB, which will take place on 13 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zaragoza

1.6

2.10

Bilbao

2.35

1.91

Zaragoza HC

-3.5

1.50

Bilbao HC

+3.5

-1.50

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

81

88

2

10

L 6

83

83

Nov 22

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

85

97

2

9

L 5

92

92

Nov 14

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

82

2

8

L 4

80

79

Nov 8

H

Manresa

L

102

103

2

7

L 3