2020 12 11 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Panathinaikos vs Giannina at 12 December 2020
Larisa vs OFI Crete at 12 December 2020
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos at 13 December 2020
Apollon vs AEK at 13 December 2020
Aris vs PAOK at 13 December 2020
Lamia vs Olympiakos at 13 December 2020
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos at 14 December 2020


Panathinaikos vs Giannina at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Giannina for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panathinaikos

1.56

2.85

-29.0

Draw

3.92

3.57

2.5

Giannina

5.64

2.71

19.2

Over 2.5

2.18

2.47

-5.4

Under 2.5

1.70

1.68

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Giannina, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 19.2 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance at home.
Panathinaikos, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

AEK

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Panetolikos

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Lamia

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Volos NFC

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

OFI Crete

A

2

2

D

O

G


Giannina in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance as a guest.
Giannina, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Lamia

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

OFI Crete

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

PAOK

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Panetolikos

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Nov

Larisa

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Atromitos

A

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

AEK

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Oct

Apollon

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panathinaikos and the red line for guest team, Giannina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panathinaikos

33%

39%

14%

15%

Giannina

32%

33%

28%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.65 goals and Giannina to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.11 goals and Giannina to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

2.99

1

4.33

2-3

2.07

2

3.85

4+

5.52

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.55

Un 1.5

2.99

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.47

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.22

3.13

2-3 goals

3.59

3.81

2.18

4+ goals

1.97

3.69

4.53

Ov 1.5

2.93

3.78

2.54

Un 1.5

2.70

3.22

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.20

8.27

2.35

Un 2.5

3.56

2.58

3.02

Ov 3.5

1.97

3.69

4.53

Un 3.5

3.16

3.55

2.49

Goal-Goal

3.37

2.61

3.12

No Goal

2.52

5.20

2.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.44

6.78

2.26

NG+Un 2.5

2.80

5.20

2.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Larisa vs OFI Crete at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 12 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Larisa

2.60

3.31

-8.3

Draw

2.99

3.17

-1.9

OFI Crete

2.91

2.61

3.9

Over 2.5

2.40

3.33

-11.6

Under 2.5

1.57

1.43

6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at OFI Crete, Under 2.5 (3.9 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Larisa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Aris

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Nov

AEK

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Nov

Giannina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Oct

Apollon

A

0

1

L

U

N


OFI Crete in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance as a guest.
OFI Crete, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Apollon

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Nov

Volos NFC

A

4

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Olympiakos

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AEK

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Panathinaikos

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

PAOK

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, OFI Crete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Larisa

40%

37%

17%

6%

OFI Crete

36%

33%

25%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.11 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 0.87 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.88 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.90

0-1

2.42

1

3.72

2-3

2.09

2

3.50

4+

9.17

3

5.21

Ov 1.5

1.70

4

12.20

Un 1.5

2.42

5

41.67

Ov 2.5

3.32

6+

333.33

Un 2.5

1.43

Gg

2.61

Ov 3.5

9.17

NoG

1.62

Un 3.5

1.12

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.09

2.86

3.07

2-3 goals

3.51

3.82

2.20

4+ goals

3.30

2.42

3.52

Ov 1.5

3.47

3.45

2.37

Un 1.5

3.09

2.86

3.07

Ov 2.5

2.76

6.69

2.05

Un 2.5

3.61

2.59

2.97

Ov 3.5

3.30

2.42

3.52

Un 3.5

3.30

3.30

2.53

Goal-Goal

4.30

2.25

3.09

No Goal

2.89

4.26

2.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.90

5.73

2.08

NG+Un 2.5

2.96

4.26

2.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Volos NFC vs Panetolikos at 13 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Volos NFC and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 13 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Volos NFC

2.22

2.29

-1.4

Draw

3.09

3.36

-2.6

Panetolikos

3.45

3.77

-2.5

Over 2.5

2.26

2.87

-9.4

Under 2.5

1.63

1.53

4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Volos NFC in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance at home.
Volos NFC, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Dec

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Olympiakos

A

1

4

L

O

G

30 Nov

Apollon

A

3

3

D

O

G

23 Nov

OFI Crete

H

1

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Panathinaikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Oct

Lamia

A

2

1

W

O

G


Panetolikos in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance as a guest.
Panetolikos, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Larisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Giannina

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

26 Oct

Atromitos

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Oct

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Volos NFC and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Volos NFC

37%

26%

21%

16%

Panetolikos

46%

33%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.28 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Volos NFC to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.16 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and the home team Volos NFC to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.81

0-1

2.40

1

4.10

2-3

2.27

2

4.24

4+

6.94

3

4.90

Ov 1.5

1.71

4

10.10

Un 1.5

2.40

5

28.57

Ov 2.5

2.87

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.53

Gg

2.96

Ov 3.5

6.94

NoG

1.51

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.47

2.42

3.35

2-3 goals

1.82

5.12

3.93

4+ goals

1.92

3.60

4.97

Ov 1.5

1.84

4.63

4.14

Un 1.5

3.47

2.42

3.35

Ov 2.5

1.59

8.70

3.91

Un 2.5

2.99

2.53

3.70

Ov 3.5

1.92

3.60

4.97

Un 3.5

2.36

3.32

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.68

5.12

No Goal

2.27

3.85

3.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

6.30

3.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

3.85

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Apollon vs AEK at 13 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and AEK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 13 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Apollon

6.20

3.04

16.8

Draw

3.66

3.29

3.1

AEK

1.54

2.72

-28.2

Over 2.5

2.27

2.88

-9.3

Under 2.5

1.59

1.53

2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Apollon, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.8 %, 3.1 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Apollon in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

Volos NFC

H

3

3

D

O

G

25 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Atromitos

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Olympiakos

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Oct

Giannina

H

1

2

L

O

G


AEK in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance as a guest.
AEK, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Panathinaikos

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Larisa

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

PAOK

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Atromitos

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Sep

Lamia

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, AEK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Apollon

32%

43%

20%

5%

AEK

35%

33%

23%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 0.6 goals and AEK to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the guest team AEK to win by 0.99 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 0.98 goals and AEK to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.93

0-1

2.72

1

3.91

2-3

2.02

2

3.51

4+

7.30

3

4.76

Ov 1.5

1.58

4

9.80

Un 1.5

2.72

5

33.33

Ov 2.5

2.88

6+

200.00

Un 2.5

1.53

Gg

2.26

Ov 3.5

7.30

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.16

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49

3.29

3.41

2-3 goals

3.21

3.49