# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Panathinaikos vs Giannina at 12 December 2020**** Larisa vs OFI Crete at 12 December 2020**** Volos NFC vs Panetolikos at 13 December 2020**** Apollon vs AEK at 13 December 2020**** Aris vs PAOK at 13 December 2020**** Lamia vs Olympiakos at 13 December 2020**** Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos at 14 December 2020**

###
Panathinaikos vs Giannina at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Panathinaikos** and **Giannina** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Panathinaikos |
1.56 |
2.85 |
-29.0 |

Draw |
3.92 |
3.57 |
2.5 |

Giannina |
5.64 |
2.71 |
19.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.47 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.68 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Giannina, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 19.2 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Panathinaikos** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panathinaikos** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance** at home**.

Panathinaikos,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Lamia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Giannina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Giannina** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance** as a guest**.

Giannina,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Lamia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
OFI Crete |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Nov |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Apollon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Panathinaikos** and the red line for guest team, **Giannina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Panathinaikos |
33% |
39% |
14% |
15% |

Giannina |
32% |
33% |
28% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Panathinaikos** to score **1.65 ** goals and **Giannina** to score **0.65 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the home team **Panathinaikos ** to win by **1** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Panathinaikos** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Giannina** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
2.99 |

1 |
4.33 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
5.52 |

3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.50 |

4 |
8.55 |
Un 1.5 |
2.99 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.18 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.52 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.22 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
3.59 |
3.81 |
2.18 |

4+ goals |
1.97 |
3.69 |
4.53 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.93 |
3.78 |
2.54 |

Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.22 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
8.27 |
2.35 |

Un 2.5 |
3.56 |
2.58 |
3.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
3.69 |
4.53 |

Un 3.5 |
3.16 |
3.55 |
2.49 |

Goal-Goal |
3.37 |
2.61 |
3.12 |

No Goal |
2.52 |
5.20 |
2.44 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |
6.78 |
2.26 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
5.20 |
2.38 |

####
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###
Larisa vs OFI Crete at 12 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Larisa** and **OFI Crete** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **12 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Larisa |
2.60 |
3.31 |
-8.3 |

Draw |
2.99 |
3.17 |
-1.9 |

OFI Crete |
2.91 |
2.61 |
3.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.40 |
3.33 |
-11.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.43 |
6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **OFI Crete, Under 2.5 (3.9 %, 6.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Larisa** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Larisa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance** at home**.

Larisa,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Aris |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
AEK |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Apollon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**OFI Crete** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **OFI Crete** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance** as a guest**.

OFI Crete,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
Volos NFC |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
AEK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
PAOK |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Larisa** and the red line for guest team, **OFI Crete. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Larisa |
40% |
37% |
17% |
6% |

OFI Crete |
36% |
33% |
25% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Larisa** to score **1.11 ** goals and **OFI Crete** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Larisa** to score **0.87 ** goals and **OFI Crete** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **1.88** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
6.90 |
0-1 |
2.42 |

1 |
3.72 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
3.50 |
4+ |
9.17 |

3 |
5.21 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.70 |

4 |
12.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.42 |

5 |
41.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
3.32 |

6+ |
333.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.43 |

Gg |
2.61 |
Ov 3.5 |
9.17 |

NoG |
1.62 |
Un 3.5 |
1.12 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.09 |
2.86 |
3.07 |

2-3 goals |
3.51 |
3.82 |
2.20 |

4+ goals |
3.30 |
2.42 |
3.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.47 |
3.45 |
2.37 |

Un 1.5 |
3.09 |
2.86 |
3.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
6.69 |
2.05 |

Un 2.5 |
3.61 |
2.59 |
2.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.30 |
2.42 |
3.52 |

Un 3.5 |
3.30 |
3.30 |
2.53 |

Goal-Goal |
4.30 |
2.25 |
3.09 |

No Goal |
2.89 |
4.26 |
2.39 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.90 |
5.73 |
2.08 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
4.26 |
2.44 |

####
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###
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos at 13 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Volos NFC** and **Panetolikos** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **13 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Volos NFC |
2.22 |
2.29 |
-1.4 |

Draw |
3.09 |
3.36 |
-2.6 |

Panetolikos |
3.45 |
3.77 |
-2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.87 |
-9.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.53 |
4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Volos NFC** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Volos NFC** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance** at home**.

Volos NFC,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Apollon |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Oct |
Lamia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Panetolikos** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panetolikos** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance** as a guest**.

Panetolikos,** as a guest**, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Oct |
Atromitos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Oct |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Volos NFC** and the red line for guest team, **Panetolikos. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Volos NFC |
37% |
26% |
21% |
16% |

Panetolikos |
46% |
33% |
14% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Volos NFC** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Panetolikos** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Volos NFC ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Volos NFC** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Panetolikos** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **1.96** goals in the game and the home team **Volos NFC ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.81 |
0-1 |
2.40 |

1 |
4.10 |
2-3 |
2.27 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
6.94 |

3 |
4.90 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |

4 |
10.10 |
Un 1.5 |
2.40 |

5 |
28.57 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.87 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.53 |

Gg |
2.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.94 |

NoG |
1.51 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.47 |
2.42 |
3.35 |

2-3 goals |
1.82 |
5.12 |
3.93 |

4+ goals |
1.92 |
3.60 |
4.97 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.63 |
4.14 |

Un 1.5 |
3.47 |
2.42 |
3.35 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.59 |
8.70 |
3.91 |

Un 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.53 |
3.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.92 |
3.60 |
4.97 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.32 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.32 |
2.68 |
5.12 |

No Goal |
2.27 |
3.85 |
3.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.30 |
3.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
3.85 |
3.22 |

####
Go to Top

###
Apollon vs AEK at 13 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Apollon** and **AEK** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **13 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Apollon |
6.20 |
3.04 |
16.8 |

Draw |
3.66 |
3.29 |
3.1 |

AEK |
1.54 |
2.72 |
-28.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.88 |
-9.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.53 |
2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Apollon, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.8 %, 3.1 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Apollon** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Apollon** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance** at home**.

Apollon,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
Volos NFC |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Giannina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**AEK** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AEK** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance** as a guest**.

AEK,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Dec |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Larisa |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Atromitos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Lamia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Apollon** and the red line for guest team, **AEK. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Apollon |
32% |
43% |
20% |
5% |

AEK |
35% |
33% |
23% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Apollon** to score **0.6 ** goals and **AEK** to score **1.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the guest team **AEK ** to win by **0.99** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Apollon** to score **0.98 ** goals and **AEK** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.05** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.93 |
0-1 |
2.72 |

1 |
3.91 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.51 |
4+ |
7.30 |

3 |
4.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |

4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
2.72 |

5 |
33.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.88 |

6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.53 |

Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
7.30 |

NoG |
1.79 |
Un 3.5 |
1.16 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.49 |
3.29 |
3.41 |

2-3 goals |
3.21 |
3.49 |