2020 12 11 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Afyon Belediye vs Galatasaray at 12 December 2020
Anadolu Efes vs Bursaspor at 12 December 2020
Bahcesehir Koleji vs Besiktas at 12 December 2020
Karsiyaka vs Fenerbahce at 12 December 2020
Turk Telekom vs Fethiye Belediye at 13 December 2020
Tofas vs Petkim Spor at 13 December 2020
Darussafaka vs Gaziantep at 13 December 2020
Buyukcekmece vs Ormanspor at 13 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Afyon Belediye vs Galatasaray at 12 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Afyon Belediye and Galatasaray for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 12 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Afyon Belediye

2.6

2.57

Galatasaray

1.47

1.64

Afyon Belediye HC

+4.5

3.50

Galatasaray HC

-4.5

-3.50

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Fenerbahce

L

74

94

5

6

L 1

80

84

Dec 2

H

Bursaspor

W

76

70

5

5

W 1

71

70

Nov 21

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

82

96

4

5

L 2

89

96

Nov 15

A

Anadolu Efes

L

67

86

4

4

L 1

76

80

Nov 8

H

Buyukcekmece

W

79

74

4

3

W 2

72

72

Oct 31

A

Bahcesehir

W

76

70

3

3

W 1

77

72

Oct 24

H

Turk Telekom

L

84

89

2

3

L 3

83

85

Oct 17

A

Darussafaka

L

77

102

2

2

L 2

79

100

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

H

Buyukcekmece

L

87

91

4

7

L 1

79

89

Dec 2

A

Bahcesehir

W

95

78

4

6

W 2

96

80

Nov 21

H

Turk Telekom

W

94

89

3

6

W 1

93

85

Nov 14

A

Darussafaka

L

82

91

2

6

L 5

84

90

Nov 8

H

Tofas

L

79

91

2

5

L 4

77

85

Oct 31

A

Socar Spor

L

64

83

2

4

L 3

66

83

Oct 25

H

Gaziantep

L

86

90

2

3

L 2

94

99

Oct 17

A

Fethiye

L

82

91

2

2

L 1

75

99

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Afyon Belediye (in the first graph) and by Galatasaray in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Afyon Belediye will expected to score 83 points and the Galatasaray 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Afyon Belediye

Galatasaray

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

18.20

18.40

DRB

22.00

23.60

AST-TO

1.23

1.52

TRB

31.70

30.20

FTM

11.90

14.50

BL

2.50

3.50

FTA

15.30

19.80

PF-Fewer

18.20

18.60

ST

6.50

5.50

TO-Fewer

14.80

12.10

Ftper

0.78

0.73

ORBper

0.44

0.28

ORB

9.70

6.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Anadolu Efes vs Bursaspor at 12 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Bursaspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 12 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.16

1.10

Bursaspor

5

10.96

Anadolu Efes HC

-10.5

-11.00

Bursaspor HC

+10.5

11.00

Point Line

164.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Socar Spor

W

75

71

10

0

W 9

77

71

Dec 1

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

74

61

9

0

W 8

80

61

Nov 15

H

Afyon

W

86

67

8

0

W 7

84

71

Nov 7

A

Fethiye

W

90

84

7

0

W 6

82

92

Nov 1

H

Buyukcekmece

W

98

79

6

0

W 5

89

77

Oct 26

A

Besiktas

W

81

74

5

0

W 4

80

73

Oct 18

H

Bahcesehir

W

89

66

4

0

W 3

90

68

Oct 10

A

Ormanspor

W

115

76

3

0

W 2

106

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

81

94

3

7

L 5

88

94

Dec 2

A

Afyon

L

70

76

3

6

L 4

68

81

Nov 14

A

Bahcesehir

L

71

101

3

5

L 3

72

104

Nov 7

H

Turk Telekom

L

107

108

3

4

L 2

106

103

Oct 31

A

Darussafaka

L

75

78

3

3

L 1

77

77

Oct 24

H

Tofas

W

83

70

3

2

W 1

81

65

Oct 17

A

Socar Spor

L

80

108

2

2

L 2

82

108

Oct 11

H

Gaziantep

L

78

90

2

1

L 1

85

99

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Bursaspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 86 points and the Bursaspor 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Bursaspor

FG%

0.56

0.57

ASS

21.20

19.70

DRB

23.60

21.40

AST-TO

2.28

1.64

TRB

33.00

27.70

FTM

12.80

11.50

BL

3.40

2.40

FTA

16.10

15.60

PF-Fewer

16.20

21.10

ST

8.50

5.40

TO-Fewer

9.30

12.00

Ftper

0.80

0.74

ORBper

0.40

0.29

ORB

9.40

6.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bahcesehir Koleji vs Besiktas at 12 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bahcesehir Koleji and Besiktas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 12 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bahcesehir Koleji

1.3

2.66

Besiktas

3.4

1.60

Bahcesehir Koleji HC

-7.5

4.00

Besiktas HC

+7.5

-4.00

Point Line

162.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Ormanspor

L

68

80

4

7

L 4

62

85

Dec 4

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

79

82

4

6

L 3

86

82

Dec 2

H

Galatasaray

L

78

95

4

5

L 2

73

94

Nov 22

A

Fenerbahce

L

56

70

4

4

L 1

60

63

Nov 14

H

Bursaspor

W

101

71

4

3

W 1

94

70

Oct 31

H

Afyon

L

70

76

3

3

L 1

68

81

Oct 24

A

Buyukcekmece

W

92

66

3

2

W 1

84

65

Oct 18

A

Anadolu Efes

L

66

89

2

2

L 2

75

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Besiktas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

H

Turk Telekom

W

94

60

4

7

W 3

93

57

Dec 2

A

Darussafaka

W

86

82

3

7

W 2

88

81

Nov 22

H

Tofas

W

94

85

2

7

W 1

92

79

Nov 15

A

Socar Spor

L

72

82

1

7

L 1

74

82

Nov 8

H

Gaziantep

W

84

81

1

6

W 1

92

90

Nov 1

A

Fethiye

L

83

87

0

6

L 5

76

95

Oct 26

H

Anadolu Efes

L

74

81

0

5

L 4

84

76

Oct 18

H

Ormanspor

L

85

91

0

4

L 3

78

97

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Besiktas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Besiktas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji (in the first graph) and by Besiktas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bahcesehir Koleji will expected to score 81 points and the Besiktas 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bahcesehir Koleji

Besiktas

FG%

0.55

0.51

ASS

18.00

19.50

DRB

24.00

22.50

AST-TO

1.35

1.46

TRB

31.00

34.50

FTM

13.50

15.00

BL

2.30

3.20

FTA

18.50

20.00

PF-Fewer

20.80

23.00

ST

7.40

6.10

TO-Fewer

13.30

13.40

Ftper

0.73

0.75

ORBper

0.29

0.53

ORB

7.00

12.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Karsiyaka vs Fenerbahce at 12 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Karsiyaka and Fenerbahce for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 12 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Karsiyaka

2.6

2.10

Fenerbahce

1.47

1.91

Karsiyaka HC

+5.5

1.50

Fenerbahce HC

-5.5

-1.50

Point Line

159.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Bursaspor

W

94

81

7

3

W 2

88

80

Dec 4

H

Bahcesehir

W

82

79

6

3

W 1

83

81

Dec 1

A

Anadolu Efes

L

61

74

5

3

L 1

69

69

Nov 21

H

Afyon

W

96

82

5

2

W 1

94

87

Nov 1

A

Turk Telekom

L

61

81

4

2

L 1

60

77

Oct 24

H

Darussafaka

W

89

78

4

1

W 3

91

77

Oct 17

A

Tofas

W

88

78

3

1

W 2

86

73

Oct 10

H

Socar Spor

W

97

80

2

1

W 1

100

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

Afyon

W

94

74

10

1

W 1

92

78

Dec 1

A

Buyukcekmece

L

91

93

9

1

L 1

83

91

Nov 22

H

Bahcesehir

W

70

56

9

0

W 8

71

57

Nov 14

A

Turk Telekom

W

82

81

8

0

W 7

81

77

Nov 8

H

Darussafaka

W

90

79

7

0

W 6

92

78

Oct 31

A

Tofas

W

104

103

6

0

W 5

102

96

Oct 25

H

Socar Spor

W

93

70

5

0

W 4

96

70

Oct 18

A

Gaziantep

W

65

59

4

0

W 3

71

65

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Karsiyaka (in the first graph) and by Fenerbahce in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Karsiyaka will expected to score 79 points and the Fenerbahce 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Karsiyaka

Fenerbahce

FG%

0.52

0.60

ASS

19.10

21.40

DRB

25.10

23.60

AST-TO

1.55

1.67

TRB

34.30

31.70

FTM

18.20

16.00

BL

1.70

2.20

FTA

24.80

20.00

PF-Fewer

19.30

16.50

ST

6.40

7.60

TO-Fewer

12.30

12.80

Ftper

0.73

0.80

ORBper

0.37

0.34

ORB

9.20

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Turk Telekom vs Fethiye Belediye at 13 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Turk Telekom and Fethiye Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 13 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Turk Telekom

1.11

1.53

Fethiye Belediye

6.2

2.88

Turk Telekom HC

-12.5

-4.50

Fethiye Belediye HC

+12.5

4.50

Point Line

164.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 5

A

Besiktas

L

60

94

7

4

L 1

59

93

Dec 2

H

Ormanspor

W

83

64

7

3

W 1

76

68

Nov 21

A

Galatasaray

L

89

94

6

3

L 2

84

93

Nov 14