2020 12 11 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bayern Munich vs Villeurbanne at 11 December 2020
Panathinaikos vs Zalgiris at 11 December 2020
Khimki vs CSKA Moscow at 11 December 2020
Barcelona vs Olimpia Milano at 11 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bayern Munich vs Villeurbanne at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayern Munich and Villeurbanne for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bayern Munich

1.43

1.77

Villeurbanne

2.95

2.30

Bayern Munich HC

-5.5

-2.50

Villeurbanne HC

+5.5

2.50

Point Line

152.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

H

BC Khimki

W

80

77

8

4

W 1

71

77

Nov 27

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

76

83

7

4

L 2

71

82

Nov 19

H

CSKA Moscow

L

81

89

7

3

L 1

81

85

Nov 17

A

Anadolu Efes

W

74

71

7

2

W 3

76

71

Nov 13

H

Valencia Basket

W

90

79

6

2

W 2

86

75

Nov 6

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

74

59

5

2

W 1

76

62

Oct 29

A

Real Madrid

L

82

100

4

2

L 1

82

96

Oct 23

H

Olympiacos

W

74

68

4

1

W 4

75

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

A

Anadolu Efes

L

68

72

3

8

L 2

70

72

Dec 4

A

Real Madrid

L

84

91

3

7

L 1

84

88

Dec 1

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

73

3

6

W 2

90

72

Nov 27

H

FC Barcelona

W

80

68

2

6

W 1

87

66

Nov 18

A

Alba Berlin

L

75

76

1

6

L 3

70

78

Nov 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

53

66

1

5

L 2

58

69

Nov 11

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

68

89

1

4

L 1

70

94

Nov 5

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

88

86

1

3

W 1

93

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bayern Munich (in the first graph) and by Villeurbanne in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bayern Munich will expected to score 78 points and the Villeurbanne 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bayern Munich

Villeurbanne

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

16.60

16.30

DRB

20.40

22.30

AST-TO

1.26

1.09

TRB

27.30

29.20

FTM

16.80

12.80

BL

1.80

2.80

FTA

21.20

16.80

PF-Fewer

20.30

23.10

ST

5.70

7.00

TO-Fewer

13.20

15.00

Ftper

0.80

0.76

ORBper

0.33

0.31

ORB

6.80

6.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs Zalgiris at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Zalgiris for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

1.67

2.45

Zalgiris

2.27

1.69

Panathinaikos HC

-2.5

3.00

Zalgiris HC

+2.5

-3.00

Point Line

158.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

80

77

4

7

W 1

78

72

Dec 1

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

73

97

3

7

L 1

74

102

Nov 27

H

Bayern Munich

W

83

76

3

6

W 1

84

75

Nov 19

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

72

93

2

6

L 4

76

91

Nov 17

A

Valencia Basket

L

83

95

2

5

L 3

80

90

Nov 13

H

Anadolu Efes

L

77

80

2

4

L 2

79

80

Nov 6

H

CSKA Moscow

L

83

89

2

3

L 1

83

85

Oct 22

H

Fenerbahce

W

82

68

2

2

W 1

83

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 4

H

FC Barcelona

L

62

73

5

7

L 6

67

71

Nov 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

75

83

5

6

L 5

82

87

Nov 20

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

92

98

5

5

L 4

90

92

Nov 17

H

CSKA Moscow

L

78

87

5

4

L 3

78

83

Nov 12

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

57

85

5

3

L 2

57

84

Nov 6

H

Real Madrid

L

90

93

5

2

L 1

90

90

Oct 29

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

83

74

5

1

W 1

84

78

Oct 22

H

Valencia Basket

L

82

94

4

1

L 1

79

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Zalgiris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 80 points and the Zalgiris 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Zalgiris

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

16.90

17.50

DRB

21.00

19.80

AST-TO

1.41

1.54

TRB

30.80

27.40

FTM

12.00

13.90

BL

2.50

1.30

FTA

17.00

15.70

PF-Fewer

21.30

20.10

ST

5.50

5.90

TO-Fewer

12.00

11.40

Ftper

0.71

0.89

ORBper

0.47

0.39

ORB

9.80

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Khimki vs CSKA Moscow at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and CSKA Moscow for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

3.35

1.87

CSKA Moscow

1.35

2.15

Khimki HC

+6.5

-2.00

CSKA Moscow HC

-6.5

2.00

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

93

102

2

10

L 4

91

96

Dec 4

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

80

2

9

L 3

78

79

Nov 26

A

Alba Berlin

L

80

100

2

8

L 2

75

102

Nov 19

H

Anadolu Efes

L

77

105

2

7

L 1

79

105

Nov 17

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

88

83

2

6

W 1

96

87

Nov 6

A

Fenerbahce

L

71

83

1

6

L 1

72

88

Oct 30

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

83

77

1

5

W 1

85

81

Oct 23

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

87

89

0

5

L 4

86

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 3

H

Olympiacos

W

80

61

9

3

W 7

81

62

Nov 26

H

Real Madrid

W

74

73

8

3

W 6

74

70

Nov 19

A

Bayern Munich

W

89

81

7

3

W 5

90

80

Nov 17

A

Zalgiris

W

87

78

6

3

W 4

85

79

Nov 12

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

89

86

5

3

W 3

94

84

Nov 6

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

83

4

3

W 2

83

82

Oct 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

84

75

3

3

W 1

81

71

Oct 22

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

84

86

2

3

L 2

86

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by CSKA Moscow in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 79 points and the CSKA Moscow 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

CSKA Moscow

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

18.70

16.80

DRB

23.30

21.10

AST-TO

1.26

1.30

TRB

30.80

29.70

FTM

13.40

13.60

BL

4.20

2.40

FTA

17.10

15.70

PF-Fewer

20.80

23.60

ST

5.30

6.60

TO-Fewer

14.80

12.90

Ftper

0.78

0.87

ORBper

0.32

0.41

ORB

7.50

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Barcelona vs Olimpia Milano at 11 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Olimpia Milano for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.35

3.01

Olimpia Milano

3.35

1.50

Barcelona HC

-6.5

5.00

Olimpia Milano HC

+6.5

-5.00

Point Line

154.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

H

Olympiacos

L

88

96

9

3

L 1

90

98

Dec 4

A

Zalgiris

W

73

62

9

2

W 1

71

63

Nov 27

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

68

80

8

2

L 1

69

84

Nov 20

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

76

65

8

1

W 7

78

69

Nov 12

H

Fenerbahce

W

97

55

7

1

W 6

98

58

Nov 5

A

Alba Berlin

W

103

67

6

1

W 5

97

68

Oct 30

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

72

71

5

1

W 4

76

69

Oct 23

H

Real Madrid

W

79

72

4

1

W 3

79

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

A

BC Khimki

W

102

93

7

4

W 1

90

93

Dec 3

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

77

80

6

4

L 1

72

79

Dec 1

H

Alba Berlin

W

75

55

6

3

W 3

70

56

Nov 26

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

86

85

5

3

W 2

86

84

Nov 20

H

Zalgiris

W

98

92

4

3

W 1

96

93

Nov 18

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

79

87

3

3

L 2

81

92

Nov 6

A

Valencia Basket

L

81

86

3

2

L 1

78

82

Oct 16

H

Real Madrid

W

78

70

3

1

W 1

78

67

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 81 points and the Olimpia Milano 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.50

0.56

ASS

16.80

15.50

DRB

18.30

21.50

AST-TO

1.24

1.50

TRB

26.50

27.50

FTM

12.30

15.00

BL

2.60

2.90

FTA

15.30

19.10

PF-Fewer

19.90

20.20

ST

6.70

7.00

TO-Fewer

13.50

10.30

Ftper

0.80

0.79

ORBper

0.45

0.28

ORB

8.30

6.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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