2020 12 14 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Joventut Badalona vs Unics at 15 December 2020
Bahcesehir Koleji vs Reyer Venezia at 15 December 2020
Lietkabelis vs Andorra at 16 December 2020
Buducnost vs Mornar Bar at 16 December 2020
Promitheas vs Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana at 16 December 2020
Unicaja vs Ulm at 16 December 2020
Virtus Bologna vs Antwerp Giants at 16 December 2020
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Monaco at 16 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Joventut Badalona vs Unics at 15 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Unics for EuroCup, which will take place on 15 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.38

1.51

Unics

3.1

2.95

Joventut Badalona HC

-6.5

-5.00

Unics HC

+6.5

5.00

Point Line

163.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

89

75

5

2

W 1

82

75

Nov 19

A

Partizan NIS

L

75

78

4

2

L 2

75

76

Nov 17

H

Bahcesehir

L

77

87

4

1

L 1

74

90

Oct 28

A

UNICS

W

93

91

4

0

W 3

91

86

Oct 20

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

92

78

3

0

W 2

84

78

Oct 14

A

Bahcesehir

W

91

72

2

0

W 1

88

74

Sep 30

H

Partizan NIS

W

85

82

1

0

W 0

86

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 17

A

Partizan NIS

L

86

89

4

3

L 1

86

87

Nov 10

A

Bahcesehir

W

70

67

4

2

W 2

68

69

Nov 4

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

90

87

3

2

W 1

82

87

Oct 28

H

Joventut

L

91

93

2

2

L 1

92

87

Oct 14

H

Partizan NIS

W

93

70

2

1

W 2

94

68

Oct 6

H

Bahcesehir

W

89

88

1

1

W 1

86

91

Sep 30

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

78

85

0

1

L 0

71

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 82 points and the Unics 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Unics

FG%

0.57

0.55

ASS

21.30

18.60

DRB

22.70

21.30

AST-TO

1.60

1.56

TRB

31.40

31.40

FTM

16.10

13.60

BL

2.00

1.60

FTA

21.00

16.60

PF-Fewer

18.10

21.70

ST

5.70

7.10

TO-Fewer

13.30

11.90

Ftper

0.77

0.82

ORBper

0.38

0.47

ORB

8.70

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bahcesehir Koleji vs Reyer Venezia at 15 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bahcesehir Koleji and Reyer Venezia for EuroCup, which will take place on 15 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bahcesehir Koleji

1.67

2.24

Reyer Venezia

2.2

1.81

Bahcesehir Koleji HC

-2.5

2.50

Reyer Venezia HC

+2.5

-2.50

Point Line

157.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 9

A

Partizan NIS

L

75

88

1

6

L 1

75

86

Nov 17

A

Joventut

W

87

77

1

5

W 1

88

72

Nov 10

H

UNICS

L

67

70

0

5

L 4

66

66

Oct 28

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

82

88

0

4

L 3

75

88

Oct 20

H

Partizan NIS

L

76

82

0

3

L 2

76

80

Oct 14

H

Joventut

L

72

91

0

2

L 1

73

85

Oct 6

A

UNICS

L

88

89

0

1

L 0

86

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

H

Joventut

L

75

89

2

4

L 2

76

83

Nov 4

A

UNICS

L

87

90

2

3

L 1

85

85

Oct 28

H

Bahcesehir

W

88

82

2

2

W 1

85

85

Oct 20

A

Joventut

L

78

92

1

2

L 2

79

86

Oct 6

A

Partizan NIS

L

73

95

1

1

L 1

73

93

Sep 30

H

UNICS

W

85

78

1

0

W 0

83

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji (in the first graph) and by Reyer Venezia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bahcesehir Koleji will expected to score 80 points and the Reyer Venezia 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bahcesehir Koleji

Reyer Venezia

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

15.00

17.20

DRB

23.40

20.70

AST-TO

1.06

1.32

TRB

30.90

30.00

FTM

14.10

14.30

BL

1.60

2.20

FTA

18.10

18.50

PF-Fewer

21.90

25.00

ST

7.30

6.20

TO-Fewer

14.10

13.00

Ftper

0.78

0.78

ORBper

0.32

0.45

ORB

7.40

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Lietkabelis vs Andorra at 16 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lietkabelis and Andorra for EuroCup, which will take place on 16 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lietkabelis

3.7

2.75

Andorra

1.28

1.57

Lietkabelis HC

+7.5

4.50

Andorra HC

-7.5

-4.50

Point Line

153.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lietkabelis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 9

A

Antwerp Giants

L

77

86

1

7

L 4

72

94

Nov 20

A

Virtus Bologna

L

73

82

1

6

L 3

79

78

Nov 18

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

90

94

1

5

L 2

89

80

Oct 27

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

66

76

1

4

L 1

69

80

Oct 21

H

Antwerp Giants

W

80

73

1

3

W 1

74

80

Oct 14

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

76

105

0

3

L 2

75

89

Oct 7

A

Monaco

L

57

82

0

2

L 1

62

83

Sep 30

H

Virtus Bologna

L

61

76

0

1

L 0

66

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 9

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

100

106

3

4

L 1

98

90

Nov 19

H

Antwerp Giants

W

82

69

3

3

W 2

76

75

Oct 27

H

Lietkabelis

W

76

66

2

3

W 1

73

73

Oct 21

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

61

76

1

3

L 2

60

65

Oct 13

H

Virtus Bologna

L

66

82

1

2

L 1

72

78

Oct 6

A

Antwerp Giants

W

71

60

1

1

W 1

66

65

Sep 30

H

Monaco

L

76

82

0

1

L 0

82

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lietkabelis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lietkabelis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lietkabelis (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lietkabelis will expected to score 75 points and the Andorra 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lietkabelis

Andorra

FG%

0.48

0.47

ASS

13.30

16.40

DRB

19.30

22.90

AST-TO

0.92

1.20

TRB

29.00

34.00

FTM

14.40

13.60

BL

1.50

3.70

FTA

18.60

17.10

PF-Fewer

20.30

20.90

ST

6.80

7.90

TO-Fewer

14.50

13.70

Ftper

0.77

0.79

ORBper

0.51

0.48

ORB

9.80

11.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Buducnost vs Mornar Bar at 16 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Buducnost and Mornar Bar for EuroCup, which will take place on 16 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Buducnost

1.32

1.62

Mornar Bar

3.4

2.62

Buducnost HC

-7.5

-4.00

Mornar Bar HC

+7.5

4.00

Point Line

158.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

A

ratiopharm Ulm

W

77

73

4

3

W 2

81

74

Nov 20

A

Germani Brescia

W

75

66

3

3

W 1

71

70

Nov 18

H

Unicaja

L

66

90

2

3

L 2

69

83

Oct 28

A

Mornar

L

82

85

2

2

L 1

80

86

Oct 21

H

ratiopharm Ulm

W

73

68

2

1

W 1

77

69

Oct 14

A

Unicaja

L

87

91

1

1

L 1

91

84

Sep 29

H

Germani Brescia

W

93

81

1

0

W 0

88

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mornar Bar are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 18

A

Germani Brescia

L

75

77

3

4

L 3

71

81

Nov 11

A

Unicaja

L

72

98

3

3

L 2

76

90

Nov 3

H

ratiopharm Ulm

L

66

82

3

2

L 1

70

83

Oct 28

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

85

82

3

1

W 3

87

84

Oct 14

H

Germani Brescia

W

95

76

2

1

W 2

90

80

Oct 6

H

Unicaja

W

90

80

1

1

W 1

94

74

Sep 30

A

ratiopharm Ulm

L

76

84

0

1

L 0

80

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mornar Bar.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mornar Bar and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Buducnost (in the first graph) and by Mornar Bar in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Buducnost will expected to score 81 points and the Mornar Bar 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Buducnost

Mornar Bar

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

13.00

16.40

DRB

23.70

23.90

AST-TO

1.09

1.22

TRB

31.60

29.40

FTM

17.10

14.90

BL

2.00

2.90

FTA

21.10

20.10

PF-Fewer

18.00

18.30

ST

5.10

5.70

TO-Fewer

11.90

13.40

Ftper

0.81

0.74

ORBper

0.33

0.23

ORB

7.90

5.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Promitheas vs Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana at 16 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana for EuroCup, which will take place on 16 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

2.9

2.23

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

1.41

1.81

Promitheas HC

+5.5

2.50

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana HC

-5.5

-2.50

Point Line

167.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 10

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

73

77

2

4

L 3

80

77

Dec 8

A

Nanterre 92

L

70

91

2

3

L 2

70

93

Nov 11

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

80

89

2

2

L 1

85

89

Oct 21

H

Nanterre 92

W

88

72

2

1

W 2

89

73

Oct 13

A

Bursaspor

W

93

84

1

1

W 1

76

81

Oct 6

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

51

78

0

1

L 0

54

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 10

H

Promitheas

W

77

73

5

2

W 5

76

78

Dec 8

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

87

65

4

2

W 4

93

65

Nov 11

A

Bursaspor

W

97

80

3

2

W 3

80

77

Nov 9

H

Bursaspor

W

104

88

2

2

W 2

86

85

Nov 4

H

Nanterre 92

W

75

63

1

2

W 1

76

64

Oct 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L