2020 12 14 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Larissa BC vs Aris at 16 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Larissa BC vs Aris at 16 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Larissa BC and Aris for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 16 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Larissa BC

1.44

7.26

Aris

2.8

1.16

Larissa BC HC

-5.5

10.00

Aris HC

+5.5

-10.00

Point Line

155.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

76

97

1

4

L 1

74

101

Dec 9

A

P.A.O.K.

W

93

91

1

3

W 1

86

91

Dec 5

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

64

90

0

3

L 2

66

93

Oct 31

A

AEK Athens

L

68

87

0

2

L 1

74

82

Oct 25

A

Panathinaikos

L

60

69

0

1

L 0

72

63

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 9

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

92

2

2

L 1

71

91

Dec 5

H

Promitheas Patras

W

94

83

2

1

W 2

81

76

Nov 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

81

75

1

1

W 1

88

79

Oct 24

A

Messolonghi

L

70

73

0

1

L 0

71

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Larissa BC (in the first graph) and by Aris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Larissa BC will expected to score 78 points and the Aris 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Larissa BC

Aris

FG%

0.48

0.56

ASS

12.80

13.80

DRB

20.20

22.50

AST-TO

0.80

0.97

TRB

30.40

32.80

FTM

15.00

21.00

BL

1.60

2.30

FTA

19.60

27.50

PF-Fewer

20.80

20.80

ST

7.60

8.30

TO-Fewer

16.00

14.30

Ftper

0.76

0.76

ORBper

0.50

0.46

ORB

10.20

10.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *