2020 12 14 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crvena Zvezda vs Alba Berlin at 15 December 2020
Panathinaikos vs Real Madrid at 15 December 2020
CSKA Moscow vs Anadolu Efes at 15 December 2020
Zalgiris vs Baskonia at 15 December 2020
Fenerbahce vs Olimpia Milano at 15 December 2020
Olympiacos vs Valencia at 16 December 2020
Zenit vs Bayern Munich at 16 December 2020
Barcelona vs Khimki at 16 December 2020
Villeurbanne vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 16 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Crvena Zvezda vs Alba Berlin at 15 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Crvena Zvezda and Alba Berlin for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Crvena Zvezda

1.43

2.84

Alba Berlin

2.92

1.54

Crvena Zvezda HC

-5.5

4.50

Alba Berlin HC

+5.5

-4.50

Point Line

158.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 10

H

Olympiacos

L

79

81

4

9

L 4

80

82

Dec 3

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

76

81

4

8

L 3

77

81

Nov 26

H

Anadolu Efes

L

64

75

4

7

L 2

66

75

Nov 20

A

FC Barcelona

L

65

76

4

6

L 1

70

73

Nov 18

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

87

79

4

5

W 1

84

75

Nov 13

H

Real Madrid

L

67

73

3

5

L 1

67

70

Nov 11

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

89

68

3

4

W 1

90

72

Nov 6

A

Bayern Munich

L

59

74

2

4

L 2

60

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 10

H

Fenerbahce

W

89

63

5

7

W 2

88

67

Dec 3

A

Valencia Basket

W

100

92

4

7

W 1

96

88

Dec 1

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

55

75

3

7

L 1

53

71

Nov 26

H

BC Khimki

W

100

80

3

6

W 1

87

79

Nov 20

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

66

73

2

6

L 1

72

77

Nov 18

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

76

75

2

5

W 1

77

79

Nov 12

A

Olympiacos

L

71

75

1

5

L 2

72

76

Nov 5

H

FC Barcelona

L

67

103

1

4

L 1

73

99

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crvena Zvezda and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crvena Zvezda.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Crvena Zvezda (in the first graph) and by Alba Berlin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Crvena Zvezda will expected to score 79 points and the Alba Berlin 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Crvena Zvezda

Alba Berlin

FG%

0.50

0.52

ASS

14.10

19.90

DRB

19.50

19.10

AST-TO

1.19

1.43

TRB

28.20

28.60

FTM

15.30

11.10

BL

2.10

2.40

FTA

18.20

13.60

PF-Fewer

22.50

19.70

ST

6.60

7.80

TO-Fewer

11.80

13.90

Ftper

0.84

0.82

ORBper

0.44

0.50

ORB

8.60

9.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs Real Madrid at 15 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Real Madrid for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

3.45

3.88

Real Madrid

1.33

1.35

Panathinaikos HC

+7.5

7.00

Real Madrid HC

-7.5

-7.00

Point Line

161.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 11

H

Zalgiris

L

69

81

4

8

L 1

68

81

Dec 3

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

80

77

4

7

W 1

77

73

Dec 1

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

73

97

3

7

L 1

74

103

Nov 27

H

Bayern Munich

W

83

76

3

6

W 1

85

75

Nov 19

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

72

93

2

6

L 4

77

92

Nov 17

A

Valencia Basket

L

83

95

2

5

L 3

80

91

Nov 13

H

Anadolu Efes

L

77

80

2

4

L 2

79

80

Nov 6

H

CSKA Moscow

L

83

89

2

3

L 1

82

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

79

72

8

5

W 2

86

76

Dec 4

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

91

84

7

5

W 1

92

89

Nov 26

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

74

6

5

L 1

72

70

Nov 20

H

Fenerbahce

W

94

74

6

4

W 5

93

79

Nov 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

79

63

5

4

W 4

80

63

Nov 13

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

73

67

4

4

W 3

74

70

Nov 6

A

Zalgiris

W

93

90

3

4

W 2

92

90

Oct 29

H

Bayern Munich

W

100

82

2

4

W 1

102

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 78 points and the Real Madrid 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Real Madrid

FG%

0.52

0.57

ASS

17.10

18.50

DRB

20.80

20.90

AST-TO

1.45

1.64

TRB

30.60

29.00

FTM

12.10

12.50

BL

2.70

3.50

FTA

16.90

15.40

PF-Fewer

21.10

19.60

ST

5.60

6.70

TO-Fewer

11.80

11.30

Ftper

0.71

0.81

ORBper

0.47

0.39

ORB

9.80

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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CSKA Moscow vs Anadolu Efes at 15 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Anadolu Efes for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.46

2.11

Anadolu Efes

2.82

1.90

CSKA Moscow HC

-5.5

1.50

Anadolu Efes HC

+5.5

-1.50

Point Line

162.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 11

A

BC Khimki

W

96

87

10

3

W 8

84

86

Dec 3

H

Olympiacos

W

80

61

9

3

W 7

81

62

Nov 26

H

Real Madrid

W

74

73

8

3

W 6

74

70

Nov 19

A

Bayern Munich

W

89

81

7

3

W 5

91

80

Nov 17

A

Zalgiris

W

87

78

6

3

W 4

86

78

Nov 12

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

89

86

5

3

W 3

95

85

Nov 6

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

83

4

3

W 2

83

83

Oct 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

84

75

3

3

W 1

81

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 10

A

Valencia Basket

L

74

76

7

6

L 1

71

73

Dec 8

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

72

68

7

5

W 1

73

72

Dec 4

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

59

77

6

5

L 1

63

76

Nov 26

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

75

64

6

4

W 2

77

67

Nov 19

A

BC Khimki

W

105

77

5

4

W 1

92

76

Nov 17

H

Bayern Munich

L

71

74

4

4

L 1

73

73

Nov 13

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

80

77

4

3

W 3

74

77

Nov 5

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

91

89

3

3

W 2

92

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Anadolu Efes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 80 points and the Anadolu Efes 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

CSKA Moscow

Anadolu Efes

FG%

0.52

0.56

ASS

17.20

18.00

DRB

21.20

19.60

AST-TO

1.31

1.67

TRB

30.00

25.60

FTM

13.90

11.90

BL

2.80

3.40

FTA

16.70

15.40

PF-Fewer

23.70

16.90

ST

6.50

6.80

TO-Fewer

13.10

10.80

Ftper

0.83

0.78

ORBper

0.42

0.31

ORB

8.80

6.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zalgiris vs Baskonia at 15 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zalgiris and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zalgiris

1.68

3.32

Baskonia

2.25

1.43

Zalgiris HC

-2.5

6.00

Baskonia HC

+2.5

-6.00

Point Line

155.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 11

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

81

69

6

7

W 1

75

69

Dec 4

H

FC Barcelona

L

62

73

5

7

L 6

67

70

Nov 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

75

83

5

6

L 5

81

87

Nov 20

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

92

98

5

5

L 4

89

93

Nov 17

H

CSKA Moscow

L

78

87

5

4

L 3

77

82

Nov 12

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

57

85

5

3

L 2

58

85

Nov 6

H

Real Madrid

L

90

93

5

2

L 1

90

90

Oct 29

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

83

74

5

1

W 1

84

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 10

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

63

67

6

6

L 1

64

67

Dec 4

A

Anadolu Efes

W

77

59

6

5

W 2

79

59

Nov 26

A

Olympiacos

W

90

76

5

5

W 1

91

77

Nov 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

4

5

L 1

76

81

Nov 19

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

93

72

4

4

W 2

86

72

Nov 17

H

Fenerbahce

W

86

68

3

4

W 1

86

73

Nov 12

A

CSKA Moscow

L

86

89

2

4

L 3

85

84

Nov 5

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

86

88

2

3

L 2

87

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zalgiris (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zalgiris will expected to score 76 points and the Baskonia 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zalgiris

Baskonia

FG%

0.56

0.55

ASS

17.50

19.10

DRB

20.30

21.90

AST-TO

1.50

1.28

TRB

28.20

32.50

FTM

13.30

13.90

BL

1.20

2.80

FTA

15.00

19.30

PF-Fewer

20.00

18.50

ST

5.80

8.00

TO-Fewer

11.70

14.90

Ftper

0.89

0.72

ORBper

0.39

0.48

ORB

7.90

10.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fenerbahce vs Olimpia Milano at 15 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fenerbahce and Olimpia Milano for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fenerbahce

1.85

2.37

Olimpia Milano

2

1.73

Fenerbahce HC

-1.5

3.00

Olimpia Milano HC

+1.5

-3.00

Point Line

155.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 10

A

Alba Berlin

L

63

89

5

8

L 1

60

90

Dec 3

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

73

65

5

7

W 1

79

68

Nov 27

H

Valencia Basket

L

86

90

4

7

L 4

83

86

Nov 20

A

Real Madrid

L

74

94

4