# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Hertha vs Mainz at 15 December 2020**** Stuttgart vs Union Berlin at 15 December 2020**** Werder Bremen vs Dortmund at 15 December 2020**** Ein Frankfurt vs M’gladbach at 15 December 2020**** Bielefeld vs Augsburg at 16 December 2020**** Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg at 16 December 2020**** Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig at 16 December 2020**** Schalke 04 vs Freiburg at 16 December 2020**** FC Koln vs Leverkusen at 16 December 2020**

###
Hertha vs Mainz at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hertha** and **Mainz** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hertha |
1.77 |
1.95 |
-5.2 |

Draw |
3.88 |
4.17 |
-1.8 |

Mainz |
4.60 |
4.03 |
3.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.73 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.38 |
-3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mainz (3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** at home**.

Hertha,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Leverkusen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Augsburg |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Stuttgart |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** as a guest**.

Mainz,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Freiburg |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hertha** and the red line for guest team, **Mainz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hertha |
20% |
32% |
11% |
38% |

Mainz |
35% |
31% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.89 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.83** goals in the game and the home team **Hertha ** to win by **0.95** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.66 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the home team **Hertha ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.29 |

2 |
5.62 |
4+ |
3.11 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
10.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |

6+ |
20.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.38 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.11 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.17 |
3.47 |
3.98 |

2-3 goals |
2.12 |
4.40 |
3.33 |

4+ goals |
1.66 |
4.54 |
5.65 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
4.46 |
4.03 |

Un 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.47 |
3.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
8.17 |
3.92 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.49 |
4.17 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.66 |
4.54 |
5.65 |

Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
4.02 |
3.54 |

Goal-Goal |
2.28 |
3.06 |
4.26 |

No Goal |
1.69 |
6.87 |
3.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
5.93 |
3.45 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.87 |
3.19 |

####
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###
Stuttgart vs Union Berlin at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stuttgart** and **Union Berlin** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stuttgart |
2.17 |
2.19 |
-0.4 |

Draw |
3.50 |
4.07 |
-4.0 |

Union Berlin |
3.38 |
3.37 |
0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.73 |
1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.36 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stuttgart** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Stuttgart** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance** at home**.

Stuttgart,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Dortmund |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Oct |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Hertha |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Union Berlin** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Union Berlin** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance** as a guest**.

Union Berlin,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Hertha |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
FC Koln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bielefeld |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stuttgart** and the red line for guest team, **Union Berlin. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stuttgart |
24% |
34% |
6% |
37% |

Union Berlin |
35% |
26% |
22% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Union Berlin** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **Stuttgart ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Union Berlin** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and the home team **Stuttgart ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.40 |

2 |
6.29 |
4+ |
3.14 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |

6+ |
15.87 |
Un 2.5 |
2.36 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.14 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.24 |
3.14 |
4.26 |

2-3 goals |
2.57 |
4.79 |
2.48 |

4+ goals |
1.80 |
4.24 |
4.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
4.54 |
3.14 |

Un 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.14 |
4.26 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.68 |
3.18 |

Un 2.5 |
3.09 |
2.47 |
3.68 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.80 |
4.24 |
4.82 |

Un 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.98 |
2.96 |

Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
3.04 |
3.52 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
6.02 |
3.24 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.41 |
2.90 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.02 |
2.92 |

####
Go to Top

###
Werder Bremen vs Dortmund at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Werder Bremen** and **Dortmund** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Werder Bremen |
5.94 |
2.98 |
16.7 |

Draw |
4.54 |
3.88 |
3.7 |

Dortmund |
1.52 |
2.47 |
-25.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.86 |
-9.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.16 |
4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Werder Bremen, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.7 %, 3.7 %, 4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Werder Bremen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Werder Bremen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance** at home**.

Werder Bremen,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Oct |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Dortmund** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dortmund** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance** as a guest**.

Dortmund,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Hertha |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bayern Munich |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Bielefeld |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
Hoffenheim |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Werder Bremen** and the red line for guest team, **Dortmund. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Werder Bremen |
28% |
35% |
18% |
19% |

Dortmund |
26% |
29% |
23% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Werder Bremen** to score **0.8 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **2.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and the guest team **Dortmund ** to win by **1.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Werder Bremen** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
3.39 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
25.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.71 |
3.38 |
2.98 |

2-3 goals |
3.12 |
4.41 |
2.21 |

4+ goals |
3.01 |
3.60 |
2.57 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.08 |
4.05 |
2.33 |

Un 1.5 |
2.71 |
3.38 |
2.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.71 |
6.57 |
2.09 |

Un 2.5 |
3.37 |
2.61 |
3.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.01 |
3.60 |
2.57 |

Un 3.5 |
2.97 |
3.99 |
2.43 |

Goal-Goal |
3.54 |
2.87 |
2.71 |

No Goal |
2.52 |
6.40 |
2.23 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.85 |
5.24 |
2.18 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
6.40 |
2.42 |

####
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###
Ein Frankfurt vs M’gladbach at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ein Frankfurt** and **M’gladbach** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ein Frankfurt |
2.76 |
2.17 |
9.9 |

Draw |
3.70 |
4.02 |
-2.2 |

M’gladbach |
2.45 |
3.45 |
-11.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.74 |
-7.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.35 |
2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ein Frankfurt, Under 2.5 (9.9 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ein Frankfurt** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Ein Frankfurt** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance** at home**.

Ein Frankfurt,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Union Berlin |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
RB Leipzig |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
FC Koln |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** as a guest**.

M’gladbach,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Augsburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Leverkusen |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
RB Leipzig |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Mainz |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Wolfsburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ein Frankfurt** and the red line for guest team, **M’gladbach. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ein Frankfurt |
23% |
33% |
8% |
36% |

M’gladbach |
32% |
31% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.48 ** goals and **M’gladbach** to score **1.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.09** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.58 ** goals and **M’gladbach** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and the home team **Ein Frankfurt ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.36 |

2 |
5.65 |
4+ |
3.05 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |

6+ |
17.54 |
Un 2.5 |
2.36 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.05 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.49 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |