2020 12 15 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hertha vs Mainz at 15 December 2020
Stuttgart vs Union Berlin at 15 December 2020
Werder Bremen vs Dortmund at 15 December 2020
Ein Frankfurt vs M’gladbach at 15 December 2020
Bielefeld vs Augsburg at 16 December 2020
Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg at 16 December 2020
Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig at 16 December 2020
Schalke 04 vs Freiburg at 16 December 2020
FC Koln vs Leverkusen at 16 December 2020


Hertha vs Mainz at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and Mainz for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hertha

1.77

1.95

-5.2

Draw

3.88

4.17

-1.8

Mainz

4.60

4.03

3.1

Over 2.5

1.69

1.73

-1.4

Under 2.5

2.22

2.38

-3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mainz (3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hertha in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Union Berlin

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Leverkusen

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Dortmund

H

2

5

L

O

G

07 Nov

Augsburg

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Wolfsburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

RB Leipzig

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Stuttgart

H

0

2

L

U

N


Mainz in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance as a guest.
Mainz, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

FC Koln

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Bielefeld

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Hoffenheim

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Freiburg

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Schalke 04

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Augsburg

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

M’gladbach

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Leverkusen

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, Mainz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hertha

20%

32%

11%

38%

Mainz

35%

31%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.89 goals and Mainz to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Hertha to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.66 goals and Mainz to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Hertha to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.12

1

5.78

2-3

2.29

2

5.62

4+

3.11

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.12

5

10.87

Ov 2.5

1.72

6+

20.41

Un 2.5

2.38

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.11

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.17

3.47

3.98

2-3 goals

2.12

4.40

3.33

4+ goals

1.66

4.54

5.65

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.46

4.03

Un 1.5

2.17

3.47

3.98

Ov 2.5

1.61

8.17

3.92

Un 2.5

2.79

2.49

4.17

Ov 3.5

1.66

4.54

5.65

Un 3.5

2.14

4.02

3.54

Goal-Goal

2.28

3.06

4.26

No Goal

1.69

6.87

3.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

5.93

3.45

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.87

3.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stuttgart vs Union Berlin at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Union Berlin for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stuttgart

2.17

2.19

-0.4

Draw

3.50

4.07

-4.0

Union Berlin

3.38

3.37

0.1

Over 2.5

1.77

1.73

1.3

Under 2.5

2.08

2.36

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stuttgart in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Dortmund

A

5

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Werder Bremen

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Bayern Munich

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Hoffenheim

A

3

3

D

O

G

07 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Oct

Schalke 04

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Oct

FC Koln

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Hertha

A

2

0

W

U

N


Union Berlin in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance as a guest.
Union Berlin, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Bayern Munich

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Hertha

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

H

3

3

D

O

G

22 Nov

FC Koln

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bielefeld

H

5

0

W

O

N

02 Nov

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Freiburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Schalke 04

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Union Berlin.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stuttgart

24%

34%

6%

37%

Union Berlin

35%

26%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.57 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.55 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.79

1

5.56

2-3

2.40

2

6.29

4+

3.14

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.79

5

11.11

Ov 2.5

1.74

6+

15.87

Un 2.5

2.36

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

3.14

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.24

3.14

4.26

2-3 goals

2.57

4.79

2.48

4+ goals

1.80

4.24

4.82

Ov 1.5

2.17

4.54

3.14

Un 1.5

2.24

3.14

4.26

Ov 2.5

1.80

7.68

3.18

Un 2.5

3.09

2.47

3.68

Ov 3.5

1.80

4.24

4.82

Un 3.5

2.43

3.98

2.96

Goal-Goal

2.58

3.04

3.52

No Goal

1.90

6.02

3.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

5.41

2.90

NG+Un 2.5

2.45

6.02

2.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Werder Bremen vs Dortmund at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Werder Bremen and Dortmund for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Werder Bremen

5.94

2.98

16.7

Draw

4.54

3.88

3.7

Dortmund

1.52

2.47

-25.3

Over 2.5

1.59

1.86

-9.1

Under 2.5

2.40

2.16

4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.7 %, 3.7 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Werder Bremen in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance at home.
Werder Bremen, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

RB Leipzig

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Stuttgart

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Wolfsburg

A

3

5

L

O

G

21 Nov

Bayern Munich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

FC Koln

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Hoffenheim

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Freiburg

A

1

1

D

U

G


Dortmund in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance as a guest.
Dortmund, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Stuttgart

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Hertha

A

5

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bayern Munich

H

2

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bielefeld

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Schalke 04

H

3

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Hoffenheim

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Werder Bremen and the red line for guest team, Dortmund.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Werder Bremen

28%

35%

18%

19%

Dortmund

26%

29%

23%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 0.8 goals and Dortmund to score 2.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.27 goals and Dortmund to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.05

1

5.75

2-3

2.18

2

4.65

4+

3.39

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.05

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

25.00

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.39

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.71

3.38

2.98

2-3 goals

3.12

4.41

2.21

4+ goals

3.01

3.60

2.57

Ov 1.5

3.08

4.05

2.33

Un 1.5

2.71

3.38

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.71

6.57

2.09

Un 2.5

3.37

2.61

3.12

Ov 3.5

3.01

3.60

2.57

Un 3.5

2.97

3.99

2.43

Goal-Goal

3.54

2.87

2.71

No Goal

2.52

6.40

2.23

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.85

5.24

2.18

NG+Un 2.5

2.61

6.40

2.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Ein Frankfurt vs M’gladbach at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and M’gladbach for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ein Frankfurt

2.76

2.17

9.9

Draw

3.70

4.02

-2.2

M’gladbach

2.45

3.45

-11.8

Over 2.5

1.53

1.74

-7.9

Under 2.5

2.51

2.35

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ein Frankfurt, Under 2.5 (9.9 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had one win, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Wolfsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Dortmund

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Union Berlin

A

3

3

D

O

G

21 Nov

RB Leipzig

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Bayern Munich

A

0

5

L

O

N

18 Oct

FC Koln

A

1

1

D

U

G


M’gladbach in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance as a guest.
M’gladbach, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Freiburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Schalke 04

H

4

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Augsburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Leverkusen

A

3

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

RB Leipzig

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Mainz

A

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Wolfsburg

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, M’gladbach.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ein Frankfurt

23%

33%

8%

36%

M’gladbach

32%

31%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.48 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.58 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.05

1

5.71

2-3

2.36

2

5.65

4+

3.05

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.05

5

11.11

Ov 2.5

1.74

6+

17.54

Un 2.5

2.36

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.05

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.49

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-