# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Watford vs Brentford at 15 December 2020**** QPR vs Stoke at 15 December 2020**** Bristol City vs Millwall at 15 December 2020**** Bournemouth vs Wycombe at 15 December 2020**** Barnsley vs Preston at 15 December 2020**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Sheffield Weds at 15 December 2020**** Middlesbrough vs Luton at 16 December 2020**** Derby vs Swansea at 16 December 2020**** Reading vs Norwich at 16 December 2020**** Coventry vs Huddersfield at 16 December 2020**** Cardiff vs Birmingham at 16 December 2020**** Blackburn vs Rotherham at 16 December 2020**

###
Watford vs Brentford at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Brentford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
2.64 |
2.26 |
6.4 |

Draw |
3.04 |
3.62 |
-5.3 |

Brentford |
2.92 |
3.56 |
-6.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.22 |
1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.82 |
-6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Watford, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 81.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Preston |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
QPR |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Brentford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brentford** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance** as a guest**.

Brentford,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Derby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
QPR |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Brentford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
24% |
35% |
22% |
18% |

Brentford |
34% |
40% |
16% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.62 |
3.06 |

2-3 goals |
2.15 |
3.47 |
4.06 |

4+ goals |
2.19 |
3.98 |
3.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.62 |
3.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.62 |
3.06 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
8.18 |
3.10 |

Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.48 |
4.07 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.98 |
3.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.53 |
3.61 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.58 |
4.25 |

No Goal |
1.96 |
6.07 |
3.07 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.58 |
3.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.07 |
3.04 |

####
Go to Top

###
QPR vs Stoke at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **QPR** and **Stoke** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

QPR |
2.72 |
2.62 |
1.4 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.62 |
-3.1 |

Stoke |
2.66 |
2.92 |
-3.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.25 |
-2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.80 |
-1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **QPR (1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** at home**.

QPR,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Rotherham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Watford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Stoke** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stoke** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance** as a guest**.

Stoke,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Derby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Norwich |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Huddersfield |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Reading |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **QPR** and the red line for guest team, **Stoke. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

QPR |
28% |
40% |
16% |
17% |

Stoke |
34% |
32% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Stoke** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Stoke** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.16 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.16 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.36 |
3.51 |

2-3 goals |
2.92 |
3.69 |
2.59 |

4+ goals |
2.40 |
3.93 |
3.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.74 |
3.76 |
2.71 |

Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.36 |
3.51 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
8.07 |
2.31 |

Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
2.52 |
3.71 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.40 |
3.93 |
3.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.55 |
2.89 |

Goal-Goal |
3.40 |
2.63 |
3.07 |

No Goal |
2.16 |
5.54 |
2.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
6.40 |
2.26 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.54 |
2.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bristol City vs Millwall at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bristol City** and **Millwall** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bristol City |
2.64 |
1.96 |
13.1 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.70 |
-4.9 |

Millwall |
2.84 |
4.52 |
-13.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.22 |
3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.82 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol City, Over 2.5 (13.1 %, 3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bristol City** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol City** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance** at home**.

Bristol City,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
QPR |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Watford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Millwall** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Millwall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance** as a guest**.

Millwall,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Derby |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Birmingham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Nov |
Reading |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bristol City** and the red line for guest team, **Millwall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bristol City |
21% |
36% |
20% |
23% |

Millwall |
39% |
40% |
11% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bristol City** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Millwall** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bristol City** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Millwall** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Bristol City ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.29 |

1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.75 |
3.62 |

2-3 goals |
1.91 |
3.32 |
5.69 |

4+ goals |
1.82 |
4.82 |
4.09 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
3.68 |
5.07 |

Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.75 |
3.62 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
9.96 |
3.96 |

Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.45 |
5.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.82 |
4.82 |
4.09 |

Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
3.48 |
4.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.41 |
2.55 |
5.18 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
6.38 |
4.04 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
7.51 |
3.63 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.38 |
3.77 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bournemouth vs Wycombe at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bournemouth** and **Wycombe** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bournemouth |
1.29 |
1.69 |
-18.3 |

Draw |
5.66 |
4.02 |
7.2 |

Wycombe |
10.29 |
6.29 |
6.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.02 |
-11.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.28 |
1.98 |
6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Wycombe, Under 2.5 (7.2 %, 6.2 %, 6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bournemouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bournemouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance** at home**.

Bournemouth,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Dec |
Preston |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Reading |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Birmingham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** as a guest**.

Wycombe,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Preston |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Derby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Huddersfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bournemouth** and the red line for guest team, **Wycombe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bournemouth |
12% |
36% |
29% |
24% |

Wycombe |
38% |
42% |
15% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bournemouth** to score **2.38 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.51 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.9** goals in the game and the home team **Bournemouth ** to win by **1.87** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bournemouth** to score **1.65 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Bournemouth ** to win by **0.78** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
4.37 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
1.82 |

2 |
3.62 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
3.68 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.37 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.70 |