2020 12 15 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Watford vs Brentford at 15 December 2020
QPR vs Stoke at 15 December 2020
Bristol City vs Millwall at 15 December 2020
Bournemouth vs Wycombe at 15 December 2020
Barnsley vs Preston at 15 December 2020
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Sheffield Weds at 15 December 2020
Middlesbrough vs Luton at 16 December 2020
Derby vs Swansea at 16 December 2020
Reading vs Norwich at 16 December 2020
Coventry vs Huddersfield at 16 December 2020
Cardiff vs Birmingham at 16 December 2020
Blackburn vs Rotherham at 16 December 2020


Watford vs Brentford at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

2.64

2.26

6.4

Draw

3.04

3.62

-5.3

Brentford

2.92

3.56

-6.2

Over 2.5

2.28

2.22

1.2

Under 2.5

1.64

1.82

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Watford, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 81.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Rotherham

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Preston

H

4

1

W

O

G

25 Nov

Bristol City

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

QPR

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Coventry

H

3

2

W

O

G


Brentford in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Dec

Derby

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Blackburn

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 Dec

Rotherham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

QPR

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Barnsley

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Wycombe

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

24%

35%

22%

18%

Brentford

34%

40%

16%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.15 goals and Brentford to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.34 goals and Brentford to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.37

1

4.65

2-3

2.07

2

3.97

4+

4.57

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.37

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.62

3.06

2-3 goals

2.15

3.47

4.06

4+ goals

2.19

3.98

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.62

3.84

Un 1.5

2.52

3.62

3.06

Ov 2.5

1.80

8.18

3.10

Un 2.5

2.84

2.48

4.07

Ov 3.5

2.19

3.98

3.42

Un 3.5

2.27

3.53

3.61

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.58

4.25

No Goal

1.96

6.07

3.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

6.58

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

6.07

3.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


QPR vs Stoke at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Stoke for Championship (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

QPR

2.72

2.62

1.4

Draw

3.26

3.62

-3.1

Stoke

2.66

2.92

-3.3

Over 2.5

2.13

2.25

-2.5

Under 2.5

1.75

1.80

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at QPR (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

QPR in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Reading

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Bristol City

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Brentford

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Rotherham

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Blackburn

A

1

3

L

O

G


Stoke in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance as a guest.
Stoke, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Derby

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Cardiff

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Sheffield Weds

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Nov

Norwich

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Huddersfield

H

4

3

W

O

G

07 Nov

Reading

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Stoke.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

QPR

28%

40%

16%

17%

Stoke

34%

32%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.17 goals and Stoke to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.21 goals and Stoke to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

3.16

1

4.50

2-3

2.14

2

4.17

4+

4.63

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.16

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.36

3.51

2-3 goals

2.92

3.69

2.59

4+ goals

2.40

3.93

3.04

Ov 1.5

2.74

3.76

2.71

Un 1.5

2.39

3.36

3.51

Ov 2.5

2.25

8.07

2.31

Un 2.5

3.01

2.52

3.71

Ov 3.5

2.40

3.93

3.04

Un 3.5

2.68

3.55

2.89

Goal-Goal

3.40

2.63

3.07

No Goal

2.16

5.54

2.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.50

6.40

2.26

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

5.54

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Bristol City vs Millwall at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol City and Millwall for Championship (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bristol City

2.64

1.96

13.1

Draw

3.13

3.70

-4.9

Millwall

2.84

4.52

-13.1

Over 2.5

2.42

2.22

3.7

Under 2.5

1.58

1.82

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City, Over 2.5 (13.1 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bristol City in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance at home.
Bristol City, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Rotherham

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Dec

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

QPR

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Watford

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Cardiff

A

1

0

W

U

N


Millwall in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Millwall in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance as a guest.
Millwall, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Middlesbrough

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Derby

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Birmingham

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Nov

Reading

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Cardiff

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Sheffield Weds

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bristol City and the red line for guest team, Millwall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bristol City

21%

36%

20%

23%

Millwall

39%

40%

11%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.1 goals and Millwall to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.46 goals and Millwall to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Bristol City to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.29

1

4.48

2-3

2.09

2

4.05

4+

4.61

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.29

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.19

3.75

3.62

2-3 goals

1.91

3.32

5.69

4+ goals

1.82

4.82

4.09

Ov 1.5

1.88

3.68

5.07

Un 1.5

2.19

3.75

3.62

Ov 2.5

1.54

9.96

3.96

Un 2.5

2.53

2.45

5.10

Ov 3.5

1.82

4.82

4.09

Un 3.5

2.01

3.48

4.65

Goal-Goal

2.41

2.55

5.18

No Goal

1.68

6.38

4.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

7.51

3.63

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.38

3.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Bournemouth vs Wycombe at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bournemouth and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bournemouth

1.29

1.69

-18.3

Draw

5.66

4.02

7.2

Wycombe

10.29

6.29

6.2

Over 2.5

1.64

2.02

-11.5

Under 2.5

2.28

1.98

6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wycombe, Under 2.5 (7.2 %, 6.2 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bournemouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance at home.
Bournemouth, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Huddersfield

H

5

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Swansea

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Dec

Barnsley

A

4

0

W

O

N

01 Dec

Preston

H

2

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Rotherham

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Reading

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Birmingham

A

3

1

W

O

G


Wycombe in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Coventry

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Preston

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Dec

Stoke

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Huddersfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Brentford

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bournemouth and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bournemouth

12%

36%

29%

24%

Wycombe

38%

42%

15%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 2.38 goals and Wycombe to score 0.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 1.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.65 goals and Wycombe to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

4.37

1

5.43

2-3

1.82

2

3.62

4+

4.46

3

3.68

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.37

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.70