2020 12 15 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Solihull vs Halifax at 15 December 2020
Torquay vs Dag and Red at 15 December 2020
Notts County vs Stockport at 15 December 2020
Weymouth vs Wrexham at 15 December 2020


Solihull vs Halifax at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Solihull

1.86

1.88

-0.6

Draw

3.57

4.08

-3.5

Halifax

3.68

4.44

-4.7

Over 2.5

1.89

1.94

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.88

2.07

-4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Solihull in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Bromley

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Sutton

A

1

4

L

O

G

01 Dec

Hartlepool

H

2

0

W

U

N

11 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Maidenhead

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

King’s Lynn

H

5

0

W

O

N


Halifax in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Aldershot

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Weymouth

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Barnet

H

5

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Sutton

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Nov

Notts County

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Nov

Wealdstone

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Solihull

21%

27%

26%

26%

Halifax

36%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.58 goals and Halifax to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.58 goals and Halifax to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.98

1

5.71

2-3

2.03

2

4.27

4+

3.91

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.30

3.26

2-3 goals

1.71

4.97

4.69

4+ goals

1.78

3.66

6.10

Ov 1.5

1.73

4.43

5.09

Un 1.5

2.56

3.30

3.26

Ov 2.5

1.53

7.34

4.76

Un 2.5

2.50

2.77

4.18

Ov 3.5

1.78

3.66

6.10

Un 3.5

1.92

4.25

4.08

Goal-Goal

2.08

2.96

5.51

No Goal

1.72

6.55

3.74

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

5.74

4.42

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

6.55

3.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Dag and Red at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Dag and Red for Conference (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

1.60

1.75

-5.4

Draw

3.89

4.29

-2.4

Dag and Red

4.86

5.08

-0.9

Over 2.5

1.69

1.96

-8.2

Under 2.5

2.11

2.04

1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

King’s Lynn

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Wrexham

H

3

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Wealdstone

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Halifax

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Hartlepool

A

5

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Aldershot

A

4

1

W

O

G


Dag and Red in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance as a guest.
Dag and Red, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Weymouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Notts County

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Nov

Sutton

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Nov

Boreham Wood

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Maidenhead

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Yeovil

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Dag and Red.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

22%

22%

27%

29%

Dag and Red

41%

37%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.92 goals and Dag and Red to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.62 goals and Dag and Red to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.80

1

5.81

2-3

2.03

2

4.41

4+

4.10

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.80

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

2.89

3.17

2-3 goals

1.50

6.09

5.94

4+ goals

1.61

4.00

7.87

Ov 1.5

1.53

5.19

6.46

Un 1.5

2.96

2.89

3.17

Ov 2.5

1.38

8.36

6.46

Un 2.5

2.45

2.85

4.15

Ov 3.5

1.61

4.00

7.87

Un 3.5

1.81

4.40

4.55

Goal-Goal

1.82

3.24

7.08

No Goal

1.70

5.93

4.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.50

6.21

5.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.93

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Notts County vs Stockport at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Notts County

2.38

2.49

-1.9

Draw

3.41

3.72

-2.4

Stockport

2.72

3.04

-3.9

Over 2.5

1.76

2.02

-7.3

Under 2.5

2.03

1.98

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Dag and Red

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Nov

Wealdstone

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Chesterfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

17 Nov

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G


Stockport in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Barnet

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Bromley

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Weymouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Solihull

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Wealdstone

A

5

2

W

O

G

10 Oct

Dover Athletic

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Halifax

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Notts County

25%

34%

24%

17%

Stockport

29%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.41 goals and Stockport to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.34 goals and Stockport to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.88

1

5.38

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.95

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.58

2.97

2-3 goals

2.41

4.08

2.95

4+ goals

2.53

3.29

3.33

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.77

3.07

Un 1.5

2.61

3.58

2.97

Ov 2.5

2.12

6.45

2.67

Un 2.5

2.99

2.62

3.52

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.29

3.33

Un 3.5

2.47

3.89

2.95

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.71

3.49

No Goal

2.14

6.47

2.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.38

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

6.47

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Weymouth vs Wrexham at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Weymouth and Wrexham for Conference (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Weymouth

3.62

3.36

2.1

Draw

3.48

3.65

-1.3

Wrexham

1.93

2.34

-9.1

Over 2.5

1.87

1.99

-3.2

Under 2.5

1.92

2.01

-2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Weymouth (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Weymouth in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance at home.
Weymouth, at home, had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Wealdstone

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Dag and Red

H

2

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Halifax

H

1

5

L

O

G

28 Nov

Chesterfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Stockport

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Bromley

A

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

King’s Lynn

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Barnet

A

0

1

L

U

N


Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance as a guest.
Wrexham, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Torquay

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Dec

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bromley

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Sutton

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Hartlepool

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Wealdstone

A

3

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Weymouth and the red line for guest team, Wrexham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Weymouth

26%

44%

20%

11%

Wrexham

23%

33%

26%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1 goals and Wrexham to score 1.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Wrexham to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.16 goals and Wrexham to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.12

1

5.41

2-3

1.98

2

3.92

4+

3.95

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.92

Un 1.5

4.12

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.35

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

4.19

2.86