2020 12 15 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Real Madrid vs Ath Bilbao at 15 December 2020
Barcelona vs Sociedad at 16 December 2020


Real Madrid vs Ath Bilbao at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Real Madrid

1.50

1.92

-14.6

Draw

4.39

4.05

1.9

Ath Bilbao

6.58

4.33

7.9

Over 2.5

1.80

2.02

-6.1

Under 2.5

2.05

1.98

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Ath Bilbao, Under 2.5 (1.9 %, 7.9 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Real Madrid in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Ath Madrid

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Alaves

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Villarreal

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Valencia

A

1

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Huesca

H

4

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Barcelona

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Cadiz

H

0

1

L

U

N


Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance as a guest.
Ath Bilbao, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Valencia

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Dec

Celta

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Nov

Betis

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Sevilla

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Osasuna

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Levante

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Real Madrid

21%

29%

27%

23%

Ath Bilbao

40%

32%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.99 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 1.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.53 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.76

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.18

4+

4.12

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.76

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.25

3.20

4.09

2-3 goals

1.71

5.28

4.42

4+ goals

2.08

3.37

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.82

4.45

4.45

Un 1.5

2.25

3.20

4.09

Ov 2.5

1.67

6.88

3.90

Un 2.5

2.23

2.87

4.90

Ov 3.5

2.08

3.37

4.50

Un 3.5

1.87

4.30

4.30

Goal-Goal

2.35

2.87

4.43

No Goal

1.64

6.34

4.28

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.89

5.29

3.56

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

6.34

4.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barcelona vs Sociedad at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Sociedad for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barcelona

1.64

2.22

-15.9

Draw

4.34

3.77

3.5

Sociedad

4.90

3.52

8.0

Over 2.5

1.54

1.97

-14.2

Under 2.5

2.48

2.03

8.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sociedad, Under 2.5 (3.5 %, 8 %, 8.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barcelona in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance at home.
Barcelona, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Osasuna

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Betis

H

5

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Alaves

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Real Madrid

H

1

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Getafe

A

0

1

L

U

N


Sociedad in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance as a guest.
Sociedad, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Alaves

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Cadiz

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Granada

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Celta

A

4

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Huesca

H

4

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Betis

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Sociedad.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barcelona

22%

32%

25%

21%

Sociedad

29%

40%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 2.13 goals and Sociedad to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 1.19 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.44 goals and Sociedad to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

4.03

1

5.46

2-3

2.03

2

4.10

4+

3.86

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.03

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.82

2.79

2-3 goals

2.12

3.84

3.73

4+ goals

2.07

3.60

4.18

Ov 1.5

2.10

3.76

3.87

Un 1.5

2.64

3.82

2.79

Ov 2.5

1.78

7.04

3.38

Un 2.5

2.96

2.55

3.70

Ov 3.5

2.07

3.60

4.18

Un 3.5

2.27

3.83

3.35

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.75

4.39

No Goal

1.98

6.92

2.85

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.85

3.37

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

6.92

2.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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