2020 12 15 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ipswich vs Burton at 15 December 2020
Wigan vs Rochdale at 15 December 2020
Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon at 15 December 2020
Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town at 15 December 2020
Oxford vs Northampton at 15 December 2020
Lincoln vs Shrewsbury at 15 December 2020
Gillingham vs Accrington at 15 December 2020
Doncaster vs Swindon at 15 December 2020
Crewe vs Plymouth at 15 December 2020
Charlton vs Bristol Rvs at 15 December 2020
Blackpool vs Hull at 15 December 2020
Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterboro at 15 December 2020


Ipswich vs Burton at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ipswich and Burton for League One (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ipswich

2.12

2.02

2.3

Draw

3.46

3.79

-2.5

Burton

3.35

4.17

-5.9

Over 2.5

1.93

2.17

-5.7

Under 2.5

1.88

1.85

0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ipswich, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ipswich in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance at home.
Ipswich, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Portsmouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Plymouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Oxford

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Hull

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Shrewsbury

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Sunderland

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Crewe

H

1

0

W

U

N


Burton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance as a guest.
Burton, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Charlton

H

4

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

Northampton

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Nov

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Shrewsbury

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Blackpool

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ipswich and the red line for guest team, Burton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ipswich

19%

37%

26%

18%

Burton

38%

35%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.46 goals and Burton to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.44 goals and Burton to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.61

1

4.85

2-3

1.98

2

3.82

4+

4.61

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.61

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.98

3.90

4.20

2-3 goals

1.94

3.88

4.39

4+ goals

2.26

3.44

3.74

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.74

4.17

Un 1.5

1.98

3.90

4.20

Ov 2.5

1.79

7.30

3.29

Un 2.5

2.26

2.68

5.44

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.44

3.74

Un 3.5

1.95

3.89

4.32

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.61

4.10

No Goal

1.61

6.97

4.27

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.94

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

6.97

4.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wigan vs Rochdale at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

2.37

2.49

-2.0

Draw

3.36

3.68

-2.6

Rochdale

2.96

3.07

-1.2

Over 2.5

1.98

2.07

-2.2

Under 2.5

1.85

1.93

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Accrington

H

4

3

W

O

G

05 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Oxford

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Northampton

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

2

L

U

N


Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Peterboro

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Plymouth

A

4

0

W

O

N

24 Nov

Northampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Oxford

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bristol Rvs

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

26%

34%

24%

17%

Rochdale

29%

37%

24%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.33 goals and Rochdale to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.32 goals and Rochdale to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.77

1

5.24

2-3

2.01

2

3.94

4+

4.18

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.77

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.58

2.82

2-3 goals

2.43

4.02

2.95

4+ goals

2.39

3.19

3.73

Ov 1.5

2.42

3.70

3.16

Un 1.5

2.73

3.58

2.82

Ov 2.5

2.05

6.44

2.81

Un 2.5

3.13

2.62

3.35

Ov 3.5

2.39

3.19

3.73

Un 3.5

2.53

3.85

2.90

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.67

3.69

No Goal

2.20

6.36

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.43

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

6.36

2.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon for League One (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.51

2.34

-23.5

Draw

4.23

3.66

3.7

AFC Wimbledon

6.23

3.34

13.9

Over 2.5

1.90

2.12

-5.5

Under 2.5

1.92

1.89

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, AFC Wimbledon, Under 2.5 (3.7 %, 13.9 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Lincoln

A

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Wigan

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Nov

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Doncaster

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N


AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance as a guest.
AFC Wimbledon, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Charlton

A

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Bristol Rvs

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Dec

Peterboro

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Gillingham

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Rochdale

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Doncaster

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Blackpool

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, AFC Wimbledon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

23%

35%

24%

17%

AFC Wimbledon

32%

36%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.88 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.35 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.68

1

5.08

2-3

2.00

2

3.91

4+

4.35

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.63

3.20

2-3 goals

2.29

3.93

3.24

4+ goals

2.35

3.24

3.77

Ov 1.5

2.31

3.68

3.39

Un 1.5

2.43

3.63

3.20

Ov 2.5

1.98

6.66

2.90

Un 2.5

2.79

2.61

3.85

Ov 3.5

2.35

3.24

3.77

Un 3.5

2.34

3.82

3.23

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.64

3.76

No Goal

1.97

6.39

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

5.56

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

6.39

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

1.86

2.27

-9.7

Draw

3.63

3.77

-1.0

Fleetwood Town

4.08

3.41

4.8

Over 2.5

2.00

2.03

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.82

1.97

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fleetwood Town (4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Ipswich

A

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Peterboro

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Oxford

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Crewe

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Lincoln

A

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N


Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Nov

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Plymouth

H

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Charlton

A

2

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

23%

32%

26%

18%

Fleetwood Town

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.56 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.39 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.83

1

5.38

2-3

2.02

2

4.03

4+

4.07

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.48

3.07