# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Ipswich vs Burton at 15 December 2020**** Wigan vs Rochdale at 15 December 2020**** Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon at 15 December 2020**** Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town at 15 December 2020**** Oxford vs Northampton at 15 December 2020**** Lincoln vs Shrewsbury at 15 December 2020**** Gillingham vs Accrington at 15 December 2020**** Doncaster vs Swindon at 15 December 2020**** Crewe vs Plymouth at 15 December 2020**** Charlton vs Bristol Rvs at 15 December 2020**** Blackpool vs Hull at 15 December 2020**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterboro at 15 December 2020**

###
Ipswich vs Burton at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ipswich** and **Burton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ipswich |
2.12 |
2.02 |
2.3 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.79 |
-2.5 |

Burton |
3.35 |
4.17 |
-5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.17 |
-5.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.85 |
0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ipswich, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** at home**.

Ipswich,** at home**, had 6 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Hull |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** as a guest**.

Burton,** as a guest**, had no wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Dec |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Charlton |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ipswich** and the red line for guest team, **Burton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ipswich |
19% |
37% |
26% |
18% |

Burton |
38% |
35% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ipswich** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Burton** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Ipswich ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ipswich** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Burton** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Ipswich ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.98 |
3.90 |
4.20 |

2-3 goals |
1.94 |
3.88 |
4.39 |

4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.44 |
3.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
3.74 |
4.17 |

Un 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.90 |
4.20 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
7.30 |
3.29 |

Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.68 |
5.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.44 |
3.74 |

Un 3.5 |
1.95 |
3.89 |
4.32 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.61 |
4.10 |

No Goal |
1.61 |
6.97 |
4.27 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.94 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.97 |
4.13 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wigan vs Rochdale at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wigan** and **Rochdale** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wigan |
2.37 |
2.49 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.68 |
-2.6 |

Rochdale |
2.96 |
3.07 |
-1.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.07 |
-2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.93 |
-2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** at home**.

Wigan,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** as a guest**.

Rochdale,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wigan** and the red line for guest team, **Rochdale. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wigan |
26% |
34% |
24% |
17% |

Rochdale |
29% |
37% |
24% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.73 |
3.58 |
2.82 |

2-3 goals |
2.43 |
4.02 |
2.95 |

4+ goals |
2.39 |
3.19 |
3.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.70 |
3.16 |

Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.58 |
2.82 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.44 |
2.81 |

Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.62 |
3.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.39 |
3.19 |
3.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.85 |
2.90 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.67 |
3.69 |

No Goal |
2.20 |
6.36 |
2.57 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.43 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
6.36 |
2.55 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **AFC Wimbledon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.51 |
2.34 |
-23.5 |

Draw |
4.23 |
3.66 |
3.7 |

AFC Wimbledon |
6.23 |
3.34 |
13.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.12 |
-5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.89 |
0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, AFC Wimbledon, Under 2.5 (3.7 %, 13.9 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**AFC Wimbledon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AFC Wimbledon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance** as a guest**.

AFC Wimbledon,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **AFC Wimbledon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
23% |
35% |
24% |
17% |

AFC Wimbledon |
32% |
36% |
22% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.88 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **0.67 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **1.21** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.35 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.63 |
3.20 |

2-3 goals |
2.29 |
3.93 |
3.24 |

4+ goals |
2.35 |
3.24 |
3.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.68 |
3.39 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.63 |
3.20 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.66 |
2.90 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.61 |
3.85 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.24 |
3.77 |

Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.82 |
3.23 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.64 |
3.76 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.56 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.39 |
2.93 |

####
Go to Top

###
Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Portsmouth** and **Fleetwood Town** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Portsmouth |
1.86 |
2.27 |
-9.7 |

Draw |
3.63 |
3.77 |
-1.0 |

Fleetwood Town |
4.08 |
3.41 |
4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.03 |
-0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.97 |
-4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fleetwood Town (4.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** at home**.

Portsmouth,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Ipswich |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Nov |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Lincoln |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Fleetwood Town** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fleetwood Town** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Fleetwood Town,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Plymouth |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Portsmouth** and the red line for guest team, **Fleetwood Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Portsmouth |
23% |
32% |
26% |
18% |

Fleetwood Town |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.68** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.48 |
3.07 |