# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Oldham vs Walsall at 15 December 2020**** Cambridge vs Colchester at 15 December 2020**** Carlisle vs Mansfield at 15 December 2020**** Cheltenham vs Bolton at 15 December 2020**** Crawley Town vs Bradford at 15 December 2020**** Port Vale vs Forest Green at 15 December 2020**** Salford vs Newport County at 15 December 2020**** Scunthorpe vs Barrow at 15 December 2020**** Southend vs Grimsby at 15 December 2020**** Tranmere vs Stevenage at 15 December 2020**** Morecambe vs Leyton Orient at 15 December 2020**** Exeter vs Harrogate at 15 December 2020**

###
Oldham vs Walsall at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oldham** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oldham |
2.76 |
2.40 |
5.4 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.56 |
-3.3 |

Walsall |
2.61 |
3.30 |
-8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.26 |
-2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.80 |
-2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oldham (5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** at home**.

Oldham,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Barrow |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Cheltenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had one win, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Tranmere |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Southend |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oldham** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oldham |
25% |
38% |
21% |
16% |

Walsall |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oldham** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oldham** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.38 |
3.71 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
2.50 |
3.44 |
3.24 |

4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.62 |
3.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.49 |
3.33 |

Un 1.5 |
2.38 |
3.71 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
7.62 |
2.75 |

Un 2.5 |
2.90 |
2.50 |
3.92 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.62 |
3.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.54 |
3.23 |

Goal-Goal |
2.99 |
2.53 |
3.71 |

No Goal |
2.00 |
6.14 |
2.96 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.29 |
2.66 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.14 |
2.92 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cambridge vs Colchester at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cambridge** and **Colchester** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cambridge |
1.93 |
2.21 |
-6.6 |

Draw |
3.63 |
3.65 |
-0.2 |

Colchester |
3.80 |
3.66 |
1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.10 |
-6.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.91 |
1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Colchester, Under 2.5 (1 %, 1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** at home**.

Cambridge,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** as a guest**.

Colchester,** as a guest**, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Nov |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Stevenage |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cambridge** and the red line for guest team, **Colchester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cambridge |
20% |
40% |
19% |
21% |

Colchester |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Cambridge ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Cambridge ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.06 |
4.15 |
3.65 |

2-3 goals |
2.43 |
3.31 |
3.50 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
4.00 |
4.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.50 |
3.66 |

Un 1.5 |
2.06 |
4.15 |
3.65 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
8.07 |
2.99 |

Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.44 |
4.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
4.00 |
4.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.57 |
3.55 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.59 |
3.85 |

No Goal |
1.76 |
7.08 |
3.46 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.61 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
7.08 |
3.28 |

####
Go to Top

###
Carlisle vs Mansfield at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Mansfield** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
1.80 |
2.18 |
-9.7 |

Draw |
3.66 |
3.70 |
-0.3 |

Mansfield |
4.35 |
3.68 |
4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.10 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.91 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mansfield (4.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 7 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 87.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Mansfield,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Mansfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
22% |
36% |
24% |
19% |

Mansfield |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Mansfield** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Mansfield** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
3.79 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.16 |
3.78 |
3.67 |

4+ goals |
2.13 |
3.49 |
4.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.68 |
3.80 |

Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.79 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.13 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
2.58 |
4.23 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.49 |
4.11 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.78 |
3.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.65 |
4.09 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
6.69 |
3.30 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.90 |
3.06 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.69 |
3.16 |

####
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###
Cheltenham vs Bolton at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
1.77 |
2.10 |
-8.9 |

Draw |
3.65 |
3.77 |
-0.9 |

Bolton |
4.49 |
3.86 |
3.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.04 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.96 |
-5.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bolton (3.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Walsall |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
20% |
36% |
24% |
21% |

Bolton |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.77** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.12 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.16 |
3.89 |
3.57 |