2020 12 15 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Oldham vs Walsall at 15 December 2020
Cambridge vs Colchester at 15 December 2020
Carlisle vs Mansfield at 15 December 2020
Cheltenham vs Bolton at 15 December 2020
Crawley Town vs Bradford at 15 December 2020
Port Vale vs Forest Green at 15 December 2020
Salford vs Newport County at 15 December 2020
Scunthorpe vs Barrow at 15 December 2020
Southend vs Grimsby at 15 December 2020
Tranmere vs Stevenage at 15 December 2020
Morecambe vs Leyton Orient at 15 December 2020
Exeter vs Harrogate at 15 December 2020


Oldham vs Walsall at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Oldham and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oldham

2.76

2.40

5.4

Draw

3.19

3.56

-3.3

Walsall

2.61

3.30

-8.0

Over 2.5

2.13

2.26

-2.7

Under 2.5

1.72

1.80

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham (5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oldham in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance at home.
Oldham, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Bradford

H

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Cambridge

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Barrow

A

4

3

W

O

G

21 Nov

Exeter

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Scunthorpe

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Cheltenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Salford

A

0

2

L

U

N


Walsall in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Bolton

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Tranmere

A

3

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Newport County

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Cheltenham

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Southend

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Crawley Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oldham and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oldham

25%

38%

21%

16%

Walsall

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.14 goals and Walsall to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.29 goals and Walsall to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.37

1

4.61

2-3

2.03

2

3.85

4+

4.76

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.37

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

3.71

3.23

2-3 goals

2.50

3.44

3.24

4+ goals

2.26

3.62

3.56

Ov 1.5

2.42

3.49

3.33

Un 1.5

2.38

3.71

3.23

Ov 2.5

1.98

7.62

2.75

Un 2.5

2.90

2.50

3.92

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.62

3.56

Un 3.5

2.45

3.54

3.23

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.53

3.71

No Goal

2.00

6.14

2.96

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

6.29

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.14

2.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Cambridge vs Colchester at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cambridge and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cambridge

1.93

2.21

-6.6

Draw

3.63

3.65

-0.2

Colchester

3.80

3.66

1.0

Over 2.5

1.85

2.10

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.97

1.91

1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Colchester, Under 2.5 (1 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cambridge in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance at home.
Cambridge, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Forest Green

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Mansfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Cheltenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Barrow

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Crawley Town

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Walsall

A

2

0

W

U

N


Colchester in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Port Vale

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Grimsby

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Exeter

A

1

6

L

O

G

20 Nov

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Stevenage

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cambridge and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cambridge

20%

40%

19%

21%

Colchester

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.62 goals and Colchester to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Cambridge to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.41 goals and Colchester to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Cambridge to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.70

1

4.88

2-3

2.03

2

3.95

4+

4.24

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.70

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.06

4.15

3.65

2-3 goals

2.43

3.31

3.50

4+ goals

1.98

4.00

4.07

Ov 1.5

2.26

3.50

3.66

Un 1.5

2.06

4.15

3.65

Ov 2.5

1.84

8.07

2.99

Un 2.5

2.68

2.44

4.59

Ov 3.5

1.98

4.00

4.07

Un 3.5

2.28

3.57

3.55

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.59

3.85

No Goal

1.76

7.08

3.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

6.61

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

7.08

3.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Carlisle vs Mansfield at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Mansfield for League Two (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

1.80

2.18

-9.7

Draw

3.66

3.70

-0.3

Mansfield

4.35

3.68

4.2

Over 2.5

2.03

2.10

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.80

1.91

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mansfield (4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 87.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Stevenage

H

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Bradford

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Tranmere

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Crawley Town

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Cheltenham

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Newport County

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Exeter

A

0

1

L

U

N


Mansfield in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance as a guest.
Mansfield, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Crawley Town

H

3

3

D

O

G

02 Dec

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Colchester

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Forest Green

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Bolton

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Mansfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

22%

36%

24%

19%

Mansfield

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.58 goals and Mansfield to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.4 goals and Mansfield to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.72

1

5.05

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.27

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.72

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.79

3.36

2-3 goals

2.16

3.78

3.67

4+ goals

2.13

3.49

4.11

Ov 1.5

2.15

3.68

3.80

Un 1.5

2.28

3.79

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.13

3.21

Un 2.5

2.66

2.58

4.23

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.49

4.11

Un 3.5

2.20

3.78

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.65

4.09

No Goal

1.83

6.69

3.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.90

3.06

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

6.69

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Cheltenham vs Bolton at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

1.77

2.10

-8.9

Draw

3.65

3.77

-0.9

Bolton

4.49

3.86

3.6

Over 2.5

2.03

2.04

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.78

1.96

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bolton (3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Exeter

H

5

3

W

O

G

01 Dec

Bradford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Walsall

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Oldham

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Forest Green

H

2

1

W

O

G


Bolton in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Walsall

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Port Vale

H

3

6

L

O

G

28 Nov

Southend

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Nov

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Stevenage

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Nov

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Leyton Orient

A

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

20%

36%

24%

21%

Bolton

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.59 goals and Bolton to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.46 goals and Bolton to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.89

1

5.24

2-3

2.00

2

3.97

4+

4.12

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.89

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.89

3.57