# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Nimes vs Nice at 16 December 2020**** Dijon vs Lille at 16 December 2020**** Rennes vs Marseille at 16 December 2020**** Reims vs Nantes at 16 December 2020**** Paris SG vs Lorient at 16 December 2020**** Montpellier vs Metz at 16 December 2020**** Lyon vs Brest at 16 December 2020**** Bordeaux vs St Etienne at 16 December 2020**** Angers vs Strasbourg at 16 December 2020**** Monaco vs Lens at 16 December 2020**

###
Nimes vs Nice at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nimes** and **Nice** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **16 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nimes |
3.23 |
2.99 |
2.5 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.47 |
-0.2 |

Nice |
2.24 |
2.65 |
-6.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.50 |
-10.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.67 |
6.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nimes, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 6.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nimes** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nimes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance** at home**.

Nimes,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Lorient |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
Reims |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Angers |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Metz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Oct |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**Nice** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nice** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance** as a guest**.

Nice,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Angers |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Nantes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nimes** and the red line for guest team, **Nice. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nimes |
34% |
39% |
18% |
9% |

Nice |
35% |
35% |
9% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nimes** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Nice** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the guest team **Nice ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nimes** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Nice** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.47 |
0-1 |
2.70 |

1 |
3.95 |
2-3 |
2.31 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
5.08 |

3 |
4.93 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.59 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
2.70 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.32 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |

NoG |
1.76 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.75 |
3.14 |
3.14 |

2-3 goals |
2.70 |
3.20 |
3.15 |

4+ goals |
5.05 |
5.47 |
1.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.16 |
3.68 |
2.43 |

Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
3.14 |
3.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.96 |
11.11 |
1.75 |

Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
2.37 |
4.05 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.05 |
5.47 |
1.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.72 |
3.17 |
3.15 |

Goal-Goal |
4.18 |
2.52 |
2.75 |

No Goal |
2.46 |
4.82 |
2.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.87 |
8.22 |
1.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
4.82 |
3.14 |

####
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###
Dijon vs Lille at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dijon** and **Lille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **16 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dijon |
6.24 |
3.36 |
13.7 |

Draw |
4.16 |
3.26 |
6.6 |

Lille |
1.55 |
2.53 |
-25.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.51 |
-12.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.66 |
8.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Dijon, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.7 %, 6.6 %, 8.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dijon** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dijon** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance** at home**.

Dijon,** at home**, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Nice |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Metz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Lorient |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Oct |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Lille** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lille** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance** as a guest**.

Lille,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Lorient |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Brest |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Oct |
Nice |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Lens |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dijon** and the red line for guest team, **Lille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dijon |
37% |
42% |
11% |
10% |

Lille |
35% |
35% |
3% |
27% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dijon** to score **0.68 ** goals and **Lille** to score **1.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Lille ** to win by **1.18** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dijon** to score **0.94 ** goals and **Lille** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.69 |
0-1 |
2.46 |

1 |
3.61 |
2-3 |
2.63 |

2 |
5.15 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
5.38 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.69 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
2.46 |

5 |
31.25 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
2.46 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
3.13 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
3.39 |
2.60 |
3.11 |

4+ goals |
5.53 |
7.00 |
1.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.93 |
3.35 |
2.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.13 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.54 |
13.20 |
1.56 |

Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.18 |
4.29 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.53 |
7.00 |
1.48 |

Un 3.5 |
3.04 |
2.85 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
5.34 |
2.31 |
2.64 |

No Goal |
2.67 |
4.55 |
2.46 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.42 |
8.67 |
1.69 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
4.55 |
3.25 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rennes vs Marseille at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rennes** and **Marseille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **16 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rennes |
2.54 |
2.80 |
-3.7 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.61 |
-3.0 |

Marseille |
2.91 |
2.73 |
2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.43 |
-6.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.70 |
2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Marseille, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rennes** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rennes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance** at home**.

Rennes,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Nice |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Lens |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Angers |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Oct |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** as a guest**.

Marseille,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rennes** and the red line for guest team, **Marseille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rennes |
34% |
34% |
23% |
9% |

Marseille |
36% |
35% |
8% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rennes** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rennes** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.33 |
0-1 |
2.78 |

1 |
4.17 |
2-3 |
2.27 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
5.05 |

3 |
4.69 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.56 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.78 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
2.35 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.05 |

NoG |
1.75 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.23 |
3.71 |
3.56 |

4+ goals |
5.08 |
5.35 |
1.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.70 |
4.10 |
2.60 |

Un 1.5 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.67 |
11.11 |
1.87 |

Un 2.5 |
2.90 |
2.46 |
4.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |
5.35 |
1.62 |

Un 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.35 |
3.28 |

Goal-Goal |
3.49 |
2.73 |
2.88 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
4.78 |
2.63 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |
8.30 |
2.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
4.78 |
3.21 |

####
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###
Reims vs Nantes at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reims** and **Nantes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **16 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reims |
2.45 |
2.44 |
0.2 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.52 |
-2.2 |

Nantes |
3.03 |
3.27 |
-2.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.59 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.63 |
1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reims, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reims** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reims** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance** at home**.

Reims,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Brest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Nice |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Lyon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
Nimes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Lens |
A |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Strasbourg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Montpellier |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
Lorient |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Nantes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nantes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance** as a guest**.

Nantes,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Lens |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Brest |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reims** and the red line for guest team, **Nantes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reims |
29% |
36% |
25% |
10% |

Nantes |
38% |
36% |
12% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reims** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Nantes** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reims** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Nantes** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.01 |
0-1 |
2.83 |

1 |
4.13 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
5.71 |

3 |
4.69 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.54 |

4 |
8.70 |
Un 1.5 |
2.83 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.58 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.63 |

Gg |
2.27 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.71 |

NoG |
1.78 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.18 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.09 |
3.65 |
4.03 |