2020 12 15 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nimes vs Nice at 16 December 2020
Dijon vs Lille at 16 December 2020
Rennes vs Marseille at 16 December 2020
Reims vs Nantes at 16 December 2020
Paris SG vs Lorient at 16 December 2020
Montpellier vs Metz at 16 December 2020
Lyon vs Brest at 16 December 2020
Bordeaux vs St Etienne at 16 December 2020
Angers vs Strasbourg at 16 December 2020
Monaco vs Lens at 16 December 2020


Nimes vs Nice at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Nimes and Nice for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nimes

3.23

2.99

2.5

Draw

3.45

3.47

-0.2

Nice

2.24

2.65

-6.9

Over 2.5

1.97

2.50

-10.8

Under 2.5

1.87

1.67

6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nimes, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nimes in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance at home.
Nimes, at home, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Lorient

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Dec

Marseille

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Monaco

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Reims

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Angers

H

1

5

L

O

G

01 Nov

Metz

H

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Bordeaux

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Oct

Paris SG

H

0

4

L

O

N


Nice in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance as a guest.
Nice, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Rennes

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Dijon

H

1

3

L

O

G

08 Nov

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Angers

A

3

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

St Etienne

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Nantes

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nimes and the red line for guest team, Nice.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nimes

34%

39%

18%

9%

Nice

35%

35%

9%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.08 goals and Nice to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Nice to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.02 goals and Nice to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.47

0-1

2.70

1

3.95

2-3

2.31

2

4.37

4+

5.08

3

4.93

Ov 1.5

1.59

4

7.63

Un 1.5

2.70

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.50

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.32

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

3.14

3.14

2-3 goals

2.70

3.20

3.15

4+ goals

5.05

5.47

1.61

Ov 1.5

3.16

3.68

2.43

Un 1.5

2.75

3.14

3.14

Ov 2.5

2.96

11.11

1.75

Un 2.5

3.02

2.37

4.05

Ov 3.5

5.05

5.47

1.61

Un 3.5

2.72

3.17

3.15

Goal-Goal

4.18

2.52

2.75

No Goal

2.46

4.82

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.87

8.22

1.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

4.82

3.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dijon vs Lille at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Dijon and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dijon

6.24

3.36

13.7

Draw

4.16

3.26

6.6

Lille

1.55

2.53

-25.0

Over 2.5

1.93

2.51

-12.0

Under 2.5

1.93

1.66

8.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dijon, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.7 %, 6.6 %, 8.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dijon in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dijon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance at home.
Dijon, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

St Etienne

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Nice

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Lens

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Metz

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Lorient

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Oct

Paris SG

A

0

4

L

O

N

16 Oct

Rennes

H

1

1

D

U

G


Lille in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Lorient

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Brest

A

2

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Nice

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Lens

H

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dijon and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dijon

37%

42%

11%

10%

Lille

35%

35%

3%

27%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dijon to score 0.68 goals and Lille to score 1.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Lille to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dijon to score 0.94 goals and Lille to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.69

0-1

2.46

1

3.61

2-3

2.63

2

5.15

4+

4.76

3

5.38

Ov 1.5

1.69

4

6.62

Un 1.5

2.46

5

31.25

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.46

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.13

3.13

2-3 goals

3.39

2.60

3.11

4+ goals

5.53

7.00

1.48

Ov 1.5

3.93

3.35

2.23

Un 1.5

2.77

3.13

3.13

Ov 2.5

3.54

13.20

1.56

Un 2.5

3.25

2.18

4.29

Ov 3.5

5.53

7.00

1.48

Un 3.5

3.04

2.85

3.12

Goal-Goal

5.34

2.31

2.64

No Goal

2.67

4.55

2.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.42

8.67

1.69

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

4.55

3.25


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Rennes vs Marseille at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rennes and Marseille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rennes

2.54

2.80

-3.7

Draw

3.26

3.61

-3.0

Marseille

2.91

2.73

2.3

Over 2.5

2.09

2.43

-6.7

Under 2.5

1.78

1.70

2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Marseille, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rennes in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance at home.
Rennes, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Nice

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Lens

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Nov

Strasbourg

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Nov

Bordeaux

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Paris SG

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Brest

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Oct

Angers

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Oct

Dijon

A

1

1

D

U

G


Marseille in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance as a guest.
Marseille, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Dec

Nimes

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Nantes

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Nov

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Lyon

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Metz

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rennes and the red line for guest team, Marseille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rennes

34%

34%

23%

9%

Marseille

36%

35%

8%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.25 goals and Marseille to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.08 goals and Marseille to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.33

0-1

2.78

1

4.17

2-3

2.27

2

4.39

4+

5.05

3

4.69

Ov 1.5

1.56

4

8.20

Un 1.5

2.78

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.35

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

1.75

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

3.00

3.00

2-3 goals

2.23

3.71

3.56

4+ goals

5.08

5.35

1.62

Ov 1.5

2.70

4.10

2.60

Un 1.5

3.00

3.00

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.67

11.11

1.87

Un 2.5

2.90

2.46

4.03

Ov 3.5

5.08

5.35

1.62

Un 3.5

2.52

3.35

3.28

Goal-Goal

3.49

2.73

2.88

No Goal

2.44

4.78

2.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.52

8.30

2.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

4.78

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Reims vs Nantes at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and Nantes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

2.45

2.44

0.2

Draw

3.27

3.52

-2.2

Nantes

3.03

3.27

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.27

2.59

-5.4

Under 2.5

1.66

1.63

1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Brest

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Nice

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Nimes

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Lens

A

4

4

D

O

G

01 Nov

Strasbourg

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Montpellier

A

4

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Lorient

H

1

3

L

O

G


Nantes in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance as a guest.
Nantes, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Dijon

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Strasbourg

H

0

4

L

O

N

28 Nov

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Lens

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Metz

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Lorient

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Paris SG

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Brest

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, Nantes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

29%

36%

25%

10%

Nantes

38%

36%

12%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 1.21 goals and Nantes to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.16 goals and Nantes to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.01

0-1

2.83

1

4.13

2-3

2.11

2

3.82

4+

5.71

3

4.69

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

8.70

Un 1.5

2.83

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.58

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.63

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

5.71

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.18

3.36

2-3 goals

2.09

3.65

4.03