2020 12 15 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Wolves vs Chelsea at 15 December 2020
Man City vs West Brom at 15 December 2020
Leeds vs Newcastle at 16 December 2020
West Ham vs Crystal Palace at 16 December 2020
Leicester vs Everton at 16 December 2020
Fulham vs Brighton at 16 December 2020
Arsenal vs Southampton at 16 December 2020
Liverpool vs Tottenham at 16 December 2020


Wolves vs Chelsea at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolves and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wolves

5.34

3.05

14.1

Draw

3.82

4.02

-1.3

Chelsea

1.70

2.36

-16.5

Over 2.5

2.04

1.83

5.6

Under 2.5

1.82

2.20

-9.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wolves, Over 2.5 (14.1 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolves in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance at home.
Wolves, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Liverpool

A

0

4

L

O

N

29 Nov

Arsenal

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Nov

Southampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Leicester

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Oct

Crystal Palace

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Newcastle

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Oct

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N


Chelsea in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Everton

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Leeds

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Tottenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Newcastle

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Sheffield United

H

4

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Burnley

A

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Man United

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Southampton

H

3

3

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wolves

34%

19%

37%

10%

Chelsea

23%

32%

24%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 0.74 goals and Chelsea to score 1.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.24 goals and Chelsea to score 1.43 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

4.37

1

6.62

2-3

2.07

2

4.42

4+

3.48

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.37

5

9.71

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.48

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.33

2.94

2.12

2-3 goals

2.13

8.20

2.44

4+ goals

4.95

2.56

2.45

Ov 1.5

2.71

4.51

2.45

Un 1.5

5.33

2.94

2.12

Ov 2.5

2.72

4.87

2.34

Un 2.5

3.55

3.32

2.39

Ov 3.5

4.95

2.56

2.45

Un 3.5

2.64

5.20

2.33

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.98

3.14

No Goal

3.23

6.29

1.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.56

4.02

2.78

NG+Un 2.5

3.09

6.29

2.08


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Man City vs West Brom at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and West Brom for Premier League (England), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.11

1.42

-19.7

Draw

10.54

5.24

9.6

West Brom

25.36

9.35

6.8

Over 2.5

1.32

1.93

-23.9

Under 2.5

3.36

2.07

18.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, West Brom, Under 2.5 (9.6 %, 6.8 %, 18.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Man United

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Fulham

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Burnley

H

5

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

West Ham

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Arsenal

H

1

0

W

U

N


West Brom in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance as a guest.
West Brom, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Newcastle

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

1

5

L

O

G

28 Nov

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Man United

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Tottenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Nov

Fulham

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Oct

Brighton

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Oct

Burnley

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

9%

36%

17%

38%

West Brom

55%

29%

10%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 3.35 goals and West Brom to score 0.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.66 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 3.04 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.84 goals and West Brom to score 0.66 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.41

0-1

3.66

1

4.46

2-3

1.96

2

4.81

4+

4.61

3

3.31

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.66

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

2.45

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.37

5.57

10.92

2-3 goals

1.44

4.95

9.81

4+ goals

1.47

5.56

7.23

Ov 1.5

1.45

5.12

8.87

Un 1.5

1.37

5.57

10.92

Ov 2.5

1.28

13.31

7.11

Un 2.5

1.63

3.16

14.15

Ov 3.5

1.47

5.56

7.23

Un 3.5

1.41

5.15

10.17

Goal-Goal

2.06

2.87

6.00

No Goal

1.17

12.08

15.18

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.54

7.82

4.49

NG+Un 2.5

1.28

12.08

11.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Leeds vs Newcastle at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Leeds and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leeds

1.78

2.77

-20.1

Draw

3.88

4.00

-0.8

Newcastle

4.56

2.57

17.0

Over 2.5

1.79

1.81

-0.6

Under 2.5

2.08

2.23

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle (17 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leeds in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance at home.
Leeds, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

West Ham

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Chelsea

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Everton

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Arsenal

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Crystal Palace

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Nov

Leicester

H

1

4

L

O

G

23 Oct

Aston Villa

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Oct

Wolves

H

0

1

L

U

N


Newcastle in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

West Brom

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Nov

Crystal Palace

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Chelsea

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Nov

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Everton

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Wolves

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Man United

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Oct

Burnley

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leeds

32%

22%

27%

19%

Newcastle

24%

32%

23%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.79 goals and Newcastle to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.33 goals and Newcastle to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

4.24

1

6.37

2-3

2.17

2

4.72

4+

3.31

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.24

5

10.20

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

27.03

Un 2.5

2.23

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.45

2.99

2.27

2-3 goals

2.28

6.59

2.44

4+ goals

2.88

2.99

3.15

Ov 1.5

2.49

4.46

2.68

Un 1.5

4.45

2.99

2.27

Ov 2.5

2.30

5.46

2.62

Un 2.5

3.73

3.01

2.50

Ov 3.5

2.88

2.99

3.15

Un 3.5

2.73

4.68

2.38

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.99

3.48

No Goal

2.93

6.16

2.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

4.38

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

3.15

6.16

2.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


West Ham vs Crystal Palace at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between West Ham and Crystal Palace for Premier League (England), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

West Ham

2.13

1.84

7.4

Draw

3.41

4.07

-4.8

Crystal Palace

3.61

4.74

-6.6

Over 2.5

2.01

1.90

2.9

Under 2.5

1.84

2.11

-7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham, Over 2.5 (7.4 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

West Ham in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance at home.
West Ham, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Leeds

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Nov

Aston Villa

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Fulham

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Liverpool

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Man City

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Tottenham

A

3

3

D

O

G


Crystal Palace in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance as a guest.
Crystal Palace, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Tottenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

West Brom

A

5

1

W

O

G

27 Nov

Newcastle

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Nov

Burnley

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Leeds

H

4

1

W

O

G

30 Oct

Wolves

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Brighton

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, Crystal Palace.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

West Ham

18%

34%

14%

34%

Crystal Palace

38%

36%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.45 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.63 goals and Crystal Palace to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.79

1

5.10

2-3

2.17

2

4.78

4+

3.65

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

5.68

Un 1.5

3.79

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.90

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.