# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Wolves vs Chelsea at 15 December 2020**** Man City vs West Brom at 15 December 2020**** Leeds vs Newcastle at 16 December 2020**** West Ham vs Crystal Palace at 16 December 2020**** Leicester vs Everton at 16 December 2020**** Fulham vs Brighton at 16 December 2020**** Arsenal vs Southampton at 16 December 2020**** Liverpool vs Tottenham at 16 December 2020**

###
Wolves vs Chelsea at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolves** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolves |
5.34 |
3.05 |
14.1 |

Draw |
3.82 |
4.02 |
-1.3 |

Chelsea |
1.70 |
2.36 |
-16.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.83 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.20 |
-9.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wolves, Over 2.5 (14.1 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** at home**.

Wolves,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Oct |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Oct |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Everton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Sheffield United |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Burnley |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolves** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolves |
34% |
19% |
37% |
10% |

Chelsea |
23% |
32% |
24% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **0.74 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.94** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
4.37 |

1 |
6.62 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
3.48 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.37 |

5 |
9.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.48 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.33 |
2.94 |
2.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.13 |
8.20 |
2.44 |

4+ goals |
4.95 |
2.56 |
2.45 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.71 |
4.51 |
2.45 |

Un 1.5 |
5.33 |
2.94 |
2.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.72 |
4.87 |
2.34 |

Un 2.5 |
3.55 |
3.32 |
2.39 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.95 |
2.56 |
2.45 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
5.20 |
2.33 |

Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.98 |
3.14 |

No Goal |
3.23 |
6.29 |
1.88 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.56 |
4.02 |
2.78 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.09 |
6.29 |
2.08 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man City vs West Brom at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **West Brom** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **15 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.11 |
1.42 |
-19.7 |

Draw |
10.54 |
5.24 |
9.6 |

West Brom |
25.36 |
9.35 |
6.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.32 |
1.93 |
-23.9 |

Under 2.5 |
3.36 |
2.07 |
18.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, West Brom, Under 2.5 (9.6 %, 6.8 %, 18.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** as a guest**.

West Brom,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Oct |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Oct |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **West Brom. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
9% |
36% |
17% |
38% |

West Brom |
55% |
29% |
10% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **3.35 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.66** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **3.04** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.84 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **1.18** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
20.41 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
4.81 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
3.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
2.45 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.37 |
5.57 |
10.92 |

2-3 goals |
1.44 |
4.95 |
9.81 |

4+ goals |
1.47 |
5.56 |
7.23 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |
5.12 |
8.87 |

Un 1.5 |
1.37 |
5.57 |
10.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.28 |
13.31 |
7.11 |

Un 2.5 |
1.63 |
3.16 |
14.15 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.47 |
5.56 |
7.23 |

Un 3.5 |
1.41 |
5.15 |
10.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
2.87 |
6.00 |

No Goal |
1.17 |
12.08 |
15.18 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
7.82 |
4.49 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.28 |
12.08 |
11.12 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leeds vs Newcastle at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leeds** and **Newcastle** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **16 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leeds |
1.78 |
2.77 |
-20.1 |

Draw |
3.88 |
4.00 |
-0.8 |

Newcastle |
4.56 |
2.57 |
17.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.81 |
-0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.23 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle (17 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** at home**.

Leeds,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Everton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Aston Villa |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Oct |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** as a guest**.

Newcastle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Man United |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leeds** and the red line for guest team, **Newcastle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leeds |
32% |
22% |
27% |
19% |

Newcastle |
24% |
32% |
23% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leeds** to score **1.79 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the home team **Leeds ** to win by **0.89** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leeds** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
6.37 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.72 |
4+ |
3.31 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
10.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
27.03 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.45 |
2.99 |
2.27 |

2-3 goals |
2.28 |
6.59 |
2.44 |

4+ goals |
2.88 |
2.99 |
3.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.49 |
4.46 |
2.68 |

Un 1.5 |
4.45 |
2.99 |
2.27 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.46 |
2.62 |

Un 2.5 |
3.73 |
3.01 |
2.50 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
2.99 |
3.15 |

Un 3.5 |
2.73 |
4.68 |
2.38 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.99 |
3.48 |

No Goal |
2.93 |
6.16 |
2.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
4.38 |
3.01 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.15 |
6.16 |
2.11 |

####
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###
West Ham vs Crystal Palace at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Ham** and **Crystal Palace** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **16 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Ham |
2.13 |
1.84 |
7.4 |

Draw |
3.41 |
4.07 |
-4.8 |

Crystal Palace |
3.61 |
4.74 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.90 |
2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.11 |
-7.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Ham, Over 2.5 (7.4 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** at home**.

West Ham,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Man City |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Tottenham |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** as a guest**.

Crystal Palace,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Nov |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Ham** and the red line for guest team, **Crystal Palace. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Ham |
18% |
34% |
14% |
34% |

Crystal Palace |
38% |
36% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Crystal Palace** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **West Ham ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Crystal Palace** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **West Ham ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.78 |
4+ |
3.65 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
5.68 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.