2020 12 15 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Udinese vs Crotone at 15 December 2020
Benevento vs Lazio at 15 December 2020
Parma vs Cagliari at 16 December 2020
Verona vs Sampdoria at 16 December 2020
Spezia vs Bologna at 16 December 2020
Inter vs Napoli at 16 December 2020
Genoa vs Milan at 16 December 2020
Juventus vs Atalanta at 16 December 2020
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo at 16 December 2020


Udinese vs Crotone at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Crotone for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Udinese

1.66

1.97

-9.5

Draw

3.80

3.97

-1.1

Crotone

5.63

4.15

6.3

Over 2.5

1.95

1.88

1.9

Under 2.5

1.88

2.14

-6.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crotone, Over 2.5 (6.3 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Udinese in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Torino

A

3

2

W

O

G

29 Nov

Lazio

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Genoa

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Sassuolo

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Fiorentina

A

2

3

L

O

G

18 Oct

Parma

H

3

2

W

O

G

03 Oct

Roma

H

0

1

L

U

N


Crotone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance as a guest.
Crotone, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Spezia

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Napoli

H

0

4

L

O

N

29 Nov

Bologna

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Lazio

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Atalanta

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Cagliari

A

2

4

L

O

G

17 Oct

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Crotone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Udinese

24%

14%

43%

19%

Crotone

36%

30%

24%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.76 goals and Crotone to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Udinese to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.57 goals and Crotone to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Udinese to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

4.74

1

8.06

2-3

1.95

2

3.88

4+

3.60

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.26

4

5.71

Un 1.5

4.74

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

3.60

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.14

2.43

2.89

2-3 goals

1.44

12.21

4.46

4+ goals

2.73

2.26

5.25

Ov 1.5

1.73

4.79

4.71

Un 1.5

4.14

2.43

2.89

Ov 2.5

1.77

4.33

4.89

Un 2.5

2.25

3.64

3.55

Ov 3.5

2.73

2.26

5.25

Un 3.5

1.78

5.61

3.85

Goal-Goal

2.08

2.94

5.57

No Goal

1.87

5.94

3.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.90

3.60

5.09

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

5.94

3.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Benevento vs Lazio at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Benevento and Lazio for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Benevento

4.60

2.91

12.6

Draw

3.72

3.58

1.1

Lazio

1.80

2.65

-17.8

Over 2.5

1.72

1.98

-7.6

Under 2.5

2.17

2.02

3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Benevento, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.6 %, 1.1 %, 3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Benevento in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance at home.
Benevento, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Sassuolo

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Fiorentina

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Spezia

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Nov

Verona

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Napoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Roma

A

2

5

L

O

G


Lazio in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance as a guest.
Lazio, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Verona

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Spezia

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Udinese

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Torino

A

4

3

W

O

G

24 Oct

Bologna

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Sampdoria

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Benevento and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Benevento

35%

14%

42%

10%

Lazio

32%

21%

29%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benevento to score 0.94 goals and Lazio to score 1.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.26 goals and Lazio to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.85

0-1

4.35

1

8.55

2-3

2.07

2

3.80

4+

3.53

3

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.35

5

9.80

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.35

2.04

3.11

2-3 goals

1.92

17.25

2.37

4+ goals

5.90

2.07

2.89

Ov 1.5

2.56

4.64

2.54

Un 1.5

5.35

2.04

3.11

Ov 2.5

3.03

3.67

2.51

Un 2.5

2.80

3.50

2.80

Ov 3.5

5.90

2.07

2.89

Un 3.5

2.43

5.06

2.56

Goal-Goal

3.24

2.65

3.19

No Goal

2.70

4.95

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.03

2.99

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.64

4.95

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Parma vs Cagliari at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Parma and Cagliari for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Parma

2.32

2.14

3.6

Draw

3.43

3.80

-2.8

Cagliari

3.12

3.69

-5.0

Over 2.5

1.74

1.92

-5.4

Under 2.5

2.13

2.09

0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Parma, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Parma in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance at home.
Parma, at home, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Milan

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Benevento

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Nov

Genoa

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Roma

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Nov

Fiorentina

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Inter

A

2

2

D

O

G

25 Oct

Spezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Udinese

A

2

3

L

O

G


Cagliari in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance as a guest.
Cagliari, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Inter

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Dec

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Spezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Juventus

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Sampdoria

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Bologna

A

2

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Crotone

H

4

2

W

O

G

18 Oct

Torino

A

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Parma and the red line for guest team, Cagliari.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Parma

26%

16%

41%

17%

Cagliari

36%

27%

26%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Parma to score 1.52 goals and Cagliari to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Parma to score 1.49 goals and Cagliari to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Parma to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

4.55

1

7.87

2-3

2.00

2

3.86

4+

3.60

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.55

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

3.60

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.93

2.37

3.10

2-3 goals

1.57

11.65

3.63

4+ goals

3.09

2.21

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.61

3.89

Un 1.5

3.93

2.37

3.10

Ov 2.5

1.98

4.13

3.97

Un 2.5

2.36

3.52

3.42

Ov 3.5

3.09

2.21

4.48

Un 3.5

1.92

5.30

3.45

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.81

4.61

No Goal

1.99

5.63

3.12

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

3.43

4.19

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

5.63

3.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Verona vs Sampdoria at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Verona and Sampdoria for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Verona

2.26

2.26

0.0

Draw

3.50

3.64

-1.1

Sampdoria

3.19

3.55

-3.2

Over 2.5

1.76

2.22

-11.8

Under 2.5

2.11

1.82

7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Verona in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance at home.
Verona, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Lazio

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Atalanta

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Sassuolo

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Milan

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Nov

Benevento

H

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Juventus

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Oct

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N


Sampdoria in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance as a guest.
Sampdoria, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Napoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Bologna

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Cagliari

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Genoa

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Atalanta

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Lazio

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Verona and the red line for guest team, Sampdoria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Verona

22%

42%

16%

20%

Sampdoria

35%

35%

22%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Verona to score 1.53 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team Verona to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Verona to score 1.35 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Verona to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.32

1

4.46

2-3

2.06

2

4.00

4+

4.67

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.32

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-