2020 12 15 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Monza vs Virtus Entella at 15 December 2020
Spal vs Chievo at 15 December 2020
Salernitana vs Lecce at 15 December 2020
Reggiana vs Frosinone at 15 December 2020
Pisa vs Pescara at 15 December 2020
Empoli vs Cremonese at 15 December 2020
Cittadella vs Vicenza at 15 December 2020
Ascoli vs Cosenza at 15 December 2020
Pordenone vs Brescia at 15 December 2020


Monza vs Virtus Entella at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Monza and Virtus Entella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monza

1.55

2.05

-15.7

Draw

3.85

3.51

2.5

Virtus Entella

5.97

4.41

5.9

Over 2.5

1.96

2.48

-10.7

Under 2.5

1.86

1.68

5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Virtus Entella, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 5.9 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monza in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance at home.
Monza, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Venezia

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Reggiana

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Dec

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Reggina

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Frosinone

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Cittadella

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Chievo

H

1

2

L

O

G


Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance as a guest.
Virtus Entella, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Empoli

H

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Spal

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Venezia

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Lecce

H

1

5

L

O

G

31 Oct

Brescia

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Oct

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monza and the red line for guest team, Virtus Entella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monza

19%

47%

14%

20%

Virtus Entella

41%

37%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monza to score 1.8 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 1.11 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monza to score 1.35 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

2.96

1

3.83

2-3

2.09

2

3.88

4+

5.46

3

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

7.81

Un 1.5

2.96

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.76

4.39

4.90

2-3 goals

2.54

2.76

4.09

4+ goals

1.69

5.23

4.58

Ov 1.5

2.23

3.18

4.21

Un 1.5

1.76

4.39

4.90

Ov 2.5

1.67

11.51

3.17

Un 2.5

2.41

2.38

6.02

Ov 3.5

1.69

5.23

4.58

Un 3.5

2.15

3.26

4.39

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.31

4.18

No Goal

1.57

6.73

4.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

8.80

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

6.73

4.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Spal vs Chievo at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Chievo for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

2.21

2.04

3.8

Draw

3.15

3.77

-5.2

Chievo

3.42

4.10

-4.8

Over 2.5

1.96

2.20

-5.6

Under 2.5

1.85

1.83

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spal in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance at home.
Spal, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Cittadella

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Pisa

H

4

0

W

O

N

30 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Pescara

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Salernitana

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Reggina

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Vicenza

H

3

2

W

O

G

20 Oct

Empoli

A

1

2

L

O

G


Chievo in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance as a guest.
Chievo, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Reggina

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Frosinone

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Nov

Lecce

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Cosenza

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Monza

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Chievo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

21%

34%

27%

18%

Chievo

38%

36%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.43 goals and Chievo to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.42 goals and Chievo to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.53

1

4.90

2-3

1.98

2

3.83

4+

4.74

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.53

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.18

3.58

3.82

2-3 goals

1.89

4.13

4.34

4+ goals

2.22

3.35

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.86

4.23

Un 1.5

2.18

3.58

3.82

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.21

3.44

Un 2.5

2.34

2.71

4.90

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.35

3.98

Un 3.5

1.99

3.92

4.14

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.65

4.30

No Goal

1.69

6.43

3.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.93

5.84

3.23

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

6.43

3.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Salernitana vs Lecce at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Lecce for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salernitana

3.27

2.49

9.6

Draw

3.55

3.69

-1.1

Lecce

2.09

3.05

-15.1

Over 2.5

1.71

2.16

-12.2

Under 2.5

2.17

1.87

7.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana, Under 2.5 (9.6 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salernitana in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Nov

Cremonese

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Pisa

H

4

1

W

O

G


Lecce in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance as a guest.
Lecce, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Frosinone

H

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Venezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Nov

Chievo

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Reggiana

H

7

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Pescara

H

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Cremonese

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Lecce.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salernitana

24%

39%

23%

14%

Lecce

33%

32%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.17 goals and Lecce to score 1.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the guest team Lecce to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.27 goals and Lecce to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.51

1

4.88

2-3

2.06

2

4.00

4+

4.37

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.51

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.21

3.56

3.75

2-3 goals

2.46

3.98

2.92

4+ goals

3.09

3.32

2.66

Ov 1.5

2.63

3.74

2.83

Un 1.5

2.21

3.56

3.75

Ov 2.5

2.39

6.72

2.31

Un 2.5

2.60

2.65

4.21

Ov 3.5

3.09

3.32

2.66

Un 3.5

2.36

3.81

3.18

Goal-Goal

3.44

2.65

3.01

No Goal

1.95

6.16

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.61

5.57

2.29

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

6.16

3.25


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Reggiana vs Frosinone at 15 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Frosinone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 15 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reggiana

3.35

2.66

7.7

Draw

3.38

3.55

-1.4

Frosinone

2.18

2.92

-11.6

Over 2.5

2.02

2.22

-4.5

Under 2.5

1.82

1.82

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana (7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reggiana in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance at home.
Reggiana, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Monza

H

3

0

W

O

N

29 Nov

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Lecce

A

1

7

L

O

G

08 Nov

Venezia

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Chievo

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N


Frosinone in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance as a guest.
Frosinone, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Chievo

H

3

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Brescia

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Nov

Cosenza

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Cremonese

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Virtus Entella

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggiana and the red line for guest team, Frosinone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reggiana

26%

37%

26%

11%

Frosinone

29%

37%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.03 goals and Frosinone to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the guest team Frosinone to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.22 goals and Frosinone to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.53

1

4.85

2-3

1.98

2

3.75

4+

4.74

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.53

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.68