2020 12 15 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AEK vs Olympiakos at 16 December 2020


AEK vs Olympiakos at 16 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 16 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AEK

3.88

3.60

2.0

Draw

2.96

3.30

-3.5

Olympiakos

2.10

2.39

-5.8

Over 2.5

2.39

2.97

-8.2

Under 2.5

1.57

1.51

2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at AEK, Under 2.5 (2 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AEK in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance at home.
AEK, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Apollon

A

4

3

W

O

G

06 Dec

Panathinaikos

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Larisa

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

PAOK

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Atromitos

A

0

1

L

U

N


Olympiakos in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance as a guest.
Olympiakos, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Lamia

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Volos NFC

H

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Aris

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Atromitos

H

4

0

W

O

N

04 Oct

Giannina

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AEK and the red line for guest team, Olympiakos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AEK

29%

59%

4%

7%

Olympiakos

31%

32%

28%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AEK to score 0.85 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AEK to score 0.89 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

2.67

1

3.55

2-3

1.94

2

3.46

4+

9.17

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.60

4

12.35

Un 1.5

2.67

5

43.48

Ov 2.5

2.99

6+

200.00

Un 2.5

1.51

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

9.17

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.12

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

4.07

3.94

2-3 goals

10.30

2.67

1.89

4+ goals

2.66

6.41

2.14

Ov 1.5

6.86

2.97

1.93

Un 1.5

2.00

4.07

3.94

Ov 2.5

4.35

19.71

1.39

Un 2.5

3.30

2.33

3.75

Ov 3.5

2.66

6.41

2.14

Un 3.5

3.75

3.12

2.42

Goal-Goal

8.78

2.30

2.22

No Goal

2.31

5.60

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

5.27

17.06

1.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

5.60

2.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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