2020 12 18 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lietkabelis vs Monaco at 18 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Lietkabelis vs Monaco at 18 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lietkabelis and Monaco for EuroCup, which will take place on 18 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lietkabelis

3.7

4.90

Monaco

1.28

1.26

Lietkabelis HC

+7.5

8.00

Monaco HC

-7.5

-8.00

Point Line

153.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lietkabelis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

77

69

2

7

W 1

81

74

Dec 9

A

Antwerp Giants

L

77

86

1

7

L 4

71

94

Nov 20

A

Virtus Bologna

L

73

82

1

6

L 3

80

77

Nov 18

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

90

94

1

5

L 2

90

82

Oct 27

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

66

76

1

4

L 1

69

81

Oct 21

H

Antwerp Giants

W

80

73

1

3

W 1

74

80

Oct 14

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

76

105

0

3

L 2

76

92

Oct 7

A

Monaco

L

57

82

0

2

L 1

62

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

76

4

4

L 2

72

66

Dec 9

H

Virtus Bologna

L

68

74

4

3

L 1

74

70

Nov 17

A

Antwerp Giants

W

75

67

4

2

W 1

70

73

Oct 28

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

88

3

2

L 2

72

77

Oct 21

A

Virtus Bologna

L

85

94

3

1

L 1

93

89

Oct 14

H

Antwerp Giants

W

96

64

3

0

W 2

89

70

Oct 7

H

Lietkabelis

W

82

57

2

0

W 1

81

62

Sep 30

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

82

76

1

0

W 0

86

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lietkabelis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lietkabelis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lietkabelis (in the first graph) and by Monaco in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lietkabelis will expected to score 74 points and the Monaco 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lietkabelis

Monaco

FG%

0.49

0.50

ASS

13.30

15.40

DRB

20.80

21.00

AST-TO

0.90

1.28

TRB

30.00

32.80

FTM

13.80

13.60

BL

1.80

2.10

FTA

17.90

20.40

PF-Fewer

20.30

20.50

ST

6.60

7.90

TO-Fewer

14.80

12.00

Ftper

0.77

0.67

ORBper

0.44

0.56

ORB

9.20

11.80


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