# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Union Berlin vs Dortmund at 18 December 2020**

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’>** M’gladbach vs Hoffenheim at 19 December 2020**** Mainz vs Werder Bremen at 19 December 2020**** RB Leipzig vs FC Koln at 19 December 2020**** Schalke 04 vs Bielefeld at 19 December 2020**** Augsburg vs Ein Frankfurt at 19 December 2020**** Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich at 19 December 2020**** Wolfsburg vs Stuttgart at 20 December 2020**** Freiburg vs Hertha at 20 December 2020**

###
Union Berlin vs Dortmund at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Union Berlin** and **Dortmund** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **18 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Union Berlin |
4.48 |
2.17 |
23.8 |

Draw |
3.94 |
4.00 |
-0.4 |

Dortmund |
1.77 |
3.46 |
-27.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.83 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.20 |
0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Union Berlin, Under 2.5 (23.8 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Union Berlin** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Union Berlin** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance** at home**.

Union Berlin,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Hertha |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
FC Koln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bielefeld |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Dortmund** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Dortmund** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance** as a guest**.

Dortmund,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Hertha |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bayern Munich |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Bielefeld |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Union Berlin** and the red line for guest team, **Dortmund. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Union Berlin |
22% |
33% |
18% |
28% |

Dortmund |
34% |
29% |
21% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Union Berlin** to score **0.96 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **1.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.85** goals in the game and the guest team **Dortmund ** to win by **0.93** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Union Berlin** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Union Berlin ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.93 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.23 |
3.36 |
3.94 |

2-3 goals |
2.17 |
4.71 |
3.05 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.70 |
3.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
4.25 |
3.34 |

Un 1.5 |
2.23 |
3.36 |
3.94 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.81 |
3.06 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.66 |
4.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.70 |
3.89 |

Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
4.12 |
3.32 |

Goal-Goal |
2.67 |
2.91 |
3.54 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
6.49 |
3.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.21 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.49 |
3.26 |

####
Go to Top

<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

###
M’gladbach vs Hoffenheim at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **M’gladbach** and **Hoffenheim** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

M’gladbach |
1.89 |
1.89 |
0.0 |

Draw |
4.04 |
4.24 |
-1.2 |

Hoffenheim |
3.70 |
4.26 |
-3.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.69 |
-11.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.44 |
6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** at home**.

M’gladbach,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Augsburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Leverkusen |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
RB Leipzig |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Mainz |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** as a guest**.

Hoffenheim,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Stuttgart |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **M’gladbach** and the red line for guest team, **Hoffenheim. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

M’gladbach |
19% |
31% |
9% |
41% |

Hoffenheim |
36% |
31% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **2.1 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.37** goals in the game and the home team **M’gladbach ** to win by **0.83** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.71 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.8** goals in the game and the home team **M’gladbach ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.34 |

2 |
5.99 |
4+ |
3.04 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.41 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
10.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |

6+ |
19.61 |
Un 2.5 |
2.46 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.04 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.50 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.12 |
3.53 |
4.07 |

2-3 goals |
2.09 |
4.37 |
3.42 |

4+ goals |
1.57 |
4.77 |
6.58 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.82 |
4.53 |
4.33 |

Un 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.53 |
4.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
8.55 |
4.31 |

Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.45 |
4.20 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.57 |
4.77 |
6.58 |

Un 3.5 |
2.10 |
4.02 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.18 |
3.10 |
4.58 |

No Goal |
1.65 |
7.06 |
3.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.07 |
3.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
7.06 |
3.19 |

####
Go to Top

###
Mainz vs Werder Bremen at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mainz** and **Werder Bremen** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mainz |
2.45 |
2.69 |
-3.6 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.89 |
-4.7 |

Werder Bremen |
2.98 |
2.70 |
3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.83 |
0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.20 |
-5.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Werder Bremen, Over 2.5 (3.5 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** at home**.

Mainz,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Freiburg |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Werder Bremen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Werder Bremen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance** as a guest**.

Werder Bremen,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Oct |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mainz** and the red line for guest team, **Werder Bremen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mainz |
27% |
35% |
15% |
24% |

Werder Bremen |
28% |
29% |
23% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mainz** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Werder Bremen** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mainz** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Werder Bremen** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.24 |

2 |
4.90 |
4+ |
3.31 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.19 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.57 |
3.32 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
2.94 |
4.43 |
2.30 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.73 |
3.05 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.73 |
4.12 |
2.56 |

Un 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.32 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
6.73 |
2.35 |

Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
2.58 |
3.28 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.73 |
3.05 |

Un 3.5 |
2.80 |
3.95 |
2.57 |

Goal-Goal |
3.18 |
2.88 |
2.95 |

No Goal |
2.30 |
6.26 |
2.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.57 |
5.23 |
2.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
6.26 |
2.55 |

####
Go to Top

###
RB Leipzig vs FC Koln at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **RB Leipzig** and **FC Koln** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

RB Leipzig |
1.32 |
1.53 |
-10.4 |

Draw |
5.62 |
4.81 |
3.0 |

FC Koln |
9.74 |
7.14 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.66 |
-3.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.51 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, FC Koln (3 %, 3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**RB Leipzig** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **RB Leipzig** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance** at home**.

RB Leipzig,** at home**, had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Bielefeld |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Freiburg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Hertha |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Koln,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Dortmund |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **RB Leipzig** and the red line for guest team, **FC Koln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

RB Leipzig |
11% |
24% |
28% |
36% |

FC Koln |
36% |
42% |
16% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **RB Leipzig** to score **2.48 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **0.56 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.05** goals in the game and the home team **RB Leipzig ** to win by **1.92** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **RB Leipzig** to score **1.9 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and the home team **RB Leipzig ** to win by **0.99** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
24.39 |
0-1 |
5.68 |

1 |
7.41 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
3.27 |

3 |
3.38 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.21 |

4 |
4.72 |
Un 1.5 |
5.68 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.51 |

Gg |
1.77 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.27 |

NoG |
2.30 |
Un 3.5 |
1.44 |