2020 12 18 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Union Berlin vs Dortmund at 18 December 2020
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Hoffenheim at 19 December 2020
Mainz vs Werder Bremen at 19 December 2020
RB Leipzig vs FC Koln at 19 December 2020
Schalke 04 vs Bielefeld at 19 December 2020
Augsburg vs Ein Frankfurt at 19 December 2020
Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich at 19 December 2020
Wolfsburg vs Stuttgart at 20 December 2020
Freiburg vs Hertha at 20 December 2020


Union Berlin vs Dortmund at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Union Berlin and Dortmund for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Union Berlin

4.48

2.17

23.8

Draw

3.94

4.00

-0.4

Dortmund

1.77

3.46

-27.6

Over 2.5

1.67

1.83

-5.2

Under 2.5

2.24

2.20

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Under 2.5 (23.8 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Union Berlin in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance at home.
Union Berlin, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Bayern Munich

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Hertha

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

H

3

3

D

O

G

22 Nov

FC Koln

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bielefeld

H

5

0

W

O

N

02 Nov

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Freiburg

H

1

1

D

U

G


Dortmund in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance as a guest.
Dortmund, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Werder Bremen

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Stuttgart

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Hertha

A

5

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bayern Munich

H

2

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Bielefeld

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Schalke 04

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, Dortmund.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Union Berlin

22%

33%

18%

28%

Dortmund

34%

29%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 0.96 goals and Dortmund to score 1.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.51 goals and Dortmund to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.97

1

5.65

2-3

2.21

2

4.93

4+

3.38

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.95

Un 1.5

3.97

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.38

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

3.36

3.94

2-3 goals

2.17

4.71

3.05

4+ goals

2.11

3.70

3.89

Ov 1.5

2.15

4.25

3.34

Un 1.5

2.23

3.36

3.94

Ov 2.5

1.90

6.81

3.06

Un 2.5

2.61

2.66

4.14

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.70

3.89

Un 3.5

2.19

4.12

3.32

Goal-Goal

2.67

2.91

3.54

No Goal

1.81

6.49

3.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.21

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.49

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

M’gladbach vs Hoffenheim at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

M’gladbach

1.89

1.89

0.0

Draw

4.04

4.24

-1.2

Hoffenheim

3.70

4.26

-3.6

Over 2.5

1.41

1.69

-11.8

Under 2.5

2.86

2.44

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

M’gladbach in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Ein Frankfurt

A

3

3

D

O

G

12 Dec

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Freiburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Schalke 04

H

4

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Augsburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Leverkusen

A

3

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

RB Leipzig

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Mainz

A

3

2

W

O

G


Hoffenheim in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance as a guest.
Hoffenheim, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Dec

Leverkusen

A

1

4

L

O

G

07 Dec

Augsburg

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Stuttgart

H

3

3

D

O

G

08 Nov

Wolfsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Nov

Union Berlin

H

1

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Werder Bremen

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, Hoffenheim.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

M’gladbach

19%

31%

9%

41%

Hoffenheim

36%

31%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 2.1 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.37 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.71 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.17

1

5.81

2-3

2.34

2

5.99

4+

3.04

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.41

Un 1.5

4.17

5

10.75

Ov 2.5

1.69

6+

19.61

Un 2.5

2.46

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.04

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.50

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.12

3.53

4.07

2-3 goals

2.09

4.37

3.42

4+ goals

1.57

4.77

6.58

Ov 1.5

1.82

4.53

4.33

Un 1.5

2.12

3.53

4.07

Ov 2.5

1.54

8.55

4.31

Un 2.5

2.83

2.45

4.20

Ov 3.5

1.57

4.77

6.58

Un 3.5

2.10

4.02

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.18

3.10

4.58

No Goal

1.65

7.06

3.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

6.07

3.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

7.06

3.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Mainz vs Werder Bremen at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Mainz and Werder Bremen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mainz

2.45

2.69

-3.6

Draw

3.29

3.89

-4.7

Werder Bremen

2.98

2.70

3.5

Over 2.5

1.86

1.83

0.9

Under 2.5

1.97

2.20

-5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen, Over 2.5 (3.5 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mainz in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance at home.
Mainz, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Hertha

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

FC Koln

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Bielefeld

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Hoffenheim

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Freiburg

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Schalke 04

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Augsburg

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

M’gladbach

H

2

3

L

O

G


Werder Bremen in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance as a guest.
Werder Bremen, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Dortmund

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

RB Leipzig

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Stuttgart

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Wolfsburg

A

3

5

L

O

G

21 Nov

Bayern Munich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

FC Koln

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Hoffenheim

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mainz and the red line for guest team, Werder Bremen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mainz

27%

35%

15%

24%

Werder Bremen

28%

29%

23%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.39 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.35 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.97

1

5.68

2-3

2.24

2

4.90

4+

3.31

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.85

Un 1.5

3.97

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

21.28

Un 2.5

2.19

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.32

3.23

2-3 goals

2.94

4.43

2.30

4+ goals

2.48

3.73

3.05

Ov 1.5

2.73

4.12

2.56

Un 1.5

2.57

3.32

3.23

Ov 2.5

2.35

6.73

2.35

Un 2.5

3.26

2.58

3.28

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.73

3.05

Un 3.5

2.80

3.95

2.57

Goal-Goal

3.18

2.88

2.95

No Goal

2.30

6.26

2.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.57

5.23

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

6.26

2.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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RB Leipzig vs FC Koln at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between RB Leipzig and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

RB Leipzig

1.32

1.53

-10.4

Draw

5.62

4.81

3.0

FC Koln

9.74

7.14

3.7

Over 2.5

1.56

1.66

-3.9

Under 2.5

2.47

2.51

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, FC Koln (3 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

RB Leipzig in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, RB Leipzig in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance at home.
RB Leipzig, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Hoffenheim

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Werder Bremen

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Bayern Munich

A

3

3

D

O

G

28 Nov

Bielefeld

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Freiburg

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

M’gladbach

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Hertha

H

2

1

W

O

G


FC Koln in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance as a guest.
FC Koln, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Leverkusen

H

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Wolfsburg

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Union Berlin

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Nov

Werder Bremen

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Bayern Munich

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Oct

Stuttgart

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, RB Leipzig and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

RB Leipzig

11%

24%

28%

36%

FC Koln

36%

42%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.48 goals and FC Koln to score 0.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.05 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 1.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 1.9 goals and FC Koln to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 0.99 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

24.39

0-1

5.68

1

7.41

2-3

1.93

2

4.50

4+

3.27

3

3.38

Ov 1.5

1.21

4

4.72

Un 1.5

5.68

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.66

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.51

Gg

1.77

Ov 3.5

3.27

NoG

2.30

Un 3.5

1.44