# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Preston vs Bristol City at 18 December 2020**** Stoke vs Blackburn at 19 December 2020**** Sheffield Weds vs Coventry at 19 December 2020**** Rotherham vs Derby at 19 December 2020**** Millwall vs Nott’m Forest at 19 December 2020**** Luton vs Bournemouth at 19 December 2020**** Huddersfield vs Watford at 19 December 2020**** Brentford vs Reading at 19 December 2020**** Birmingham vs Middlesbrough at 19 December 2020**** Swansea vs Barnsley at 19 December 2020**** Norwich vs Cardiff at 19 December 2020**

###
Preston vs Bristol City at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Preston** and **Bristol City** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **18 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Preston |
2.20 |
2.56 |
-6.4 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.52 |
-1.3 |

Bristol City |
3.34 |
3.07 |
2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.23 |
-2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.81 |
-1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol City (2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** at home**.

Preston,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Luton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Bournemouth |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Watford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Bristol City** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol City** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol City,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
QPR |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Watford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Preston** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Preston |
25% |
41% |
19% |
16% |

Bristol City |
31% |
37% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Preston** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Bristol City** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Preston ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Preston** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Bristol City** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.32 |
3.87 |
3.22 |

2-3 goals |
2.83 |
3.29 |
2.92 |

4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.72 |
3.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.41 |
3.00 |

Un 1.5 |
2.32 |
3.87 |
3.22 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
7.74 |
2.45 |

Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
2.44 |
3.85 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.72 |
3.22 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
3.48 |
3.02 |

Goal-Goal |
3.27 |
2.51 |
3.37 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
6.35 |
2.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.43 |
2.41 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.35 |
2.80 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stoke vs Blackburn at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stoke** and **Blackburn** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stoke |
2.72 |
2.70 |
0.3 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.66 |
-2.3 |

Blackburn |
2.57 |
2.81 |
-3.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.12 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.89 |
-0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stoke (0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stoke** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stoke** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance** at home**.

Stoke,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
QPR |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Derby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Norwich |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Huddersfield |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackburn,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Millwall |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Barnsley |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Preston |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stoke** and the red line for guest team, **Blackburn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stoke |
28% |
35% |
24% |
14% |

Blackburn |
29% |
34% |
24% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.72 |
3.40 |
2.96 |

2-3 goals |
2.59 |
4.27 |
2.63 |

4+ goals |
2.87 |
3.03 |
3.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.78 |
2.77 |

Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.40 |
2.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
6.20 |
2.43 |

Un 2.5 |
3.09 |
2.69 |
3.29 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.87 |
3.03 |
3.11 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.91 |
2.74 |

Goal-Goal |
3.18 |
2.67 |
3.22 |

No Goal |
2.31 |
6.02 |
2.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.21 |
2.49 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
6.02 |
2.57 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sheffield Weds vs Coventry at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield Weds** and **Coventry** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield Weds |
2.46 |
2.25 |
3.8 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.72 |
-4.4 |

Coventry |
2.99 |
3.48 |
-4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.17 |
3.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.86 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield Weds,** at home**, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Reading |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Nov |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Preston |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Coventry** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Coventry** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance** as a guest**.

Coventry,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Luton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Derby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Nov |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield Weds** and the red line for guest team, **Coventry. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield Weds |
28% |
31% |
20% |
21% |

Coventry |
36% |
36% |
15% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Coventry** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Coventry** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Sheffield Weds ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.19 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
4.33 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.19 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |

NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.79 |
3.10 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
4.11 |
3.74 |

4+ goals |
2.12 |
4.05 |
3.55 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
4.09 |
3.67 |

Un 1.5 |
2.79 |
3.10 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
8.11 |
3.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.54 |
3.82 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.12 |
4.05 |
3.55 |

Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.63 |
3.46 |

Goal-Goal |
2.53 |
2.74 |
4.15 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
5.34 |
3.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.14 |
3.15 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.34 |
3.03 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rotherham vs Derby at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rotherham** and **Derby** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rotherham |
2.76 |
2.03 |
13.0 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.66 |
-3.3 |

Derby |
2.59 |
4.24 |
-15.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.19 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.84 |
-3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rotherham (13 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rotherham** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rotherham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance** at home**.

Rotherham,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Coventry |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
QPR |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** as a guest**.

Derby,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rotherham** and the red line for guest team, **Derby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rotherham |
21% |
35% |
21% |
22% |

Derby |
36% |
42% |
12% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Derby** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Derby** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Rotherham ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.87 |
3.26 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |