2020 12 18 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Preston vs Bristol City at 18 December 2020
Stoke vs Blackburn at 19 December 2020
Sheffield Weds vs Coventry at 19 December 2020
Rotherham vs Derby at 19 December 2020
Millwall vs Nott’m Forest at 19 December 2020
Luton vs Bournemouth at 19 December 2020
Huddersfield vs Watford at 19 December 2020
Brentford vs Reading at 19 December 2020
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough at 19 December 2020
Swansea vs Barnsley at 19 December 2020
Norwich vs Cardiff at 19 December 2020


Preston vs Bristol City at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Preston and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Preston

2.20

2.56

-6.4

Draw

3.37

3.52

-1.3

Bristol City

3.34

3.07

2.6

Over 2.5

2.10

2.23

-2.8

Under 2.5

1.76

1.81

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City (2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Preston in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance at home.
Preston, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Luton

A

0

3

L

O

N

09 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Wycombe

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 Dec

Bournemouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Watford

A

1

4

L

O

G

24 Nov

Blackburn

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N


Bristol City in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Millwall

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Rotherham

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Dec

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

QPR

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Watford

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Preston and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Preston

25%

41%

19%

16%

Bristol City

31%

37%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 1.36 goals and Bristol City to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Preston to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.25 goals and Bristol City to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.45

1

4.65

2-3

2.03

2

3.85

4+

4.63

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.45

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.87

3.22

2-3 goals

2.83

3.29

2.92

4+ goals

2.37

3.72

3.22

Ov 1.5

2.68

3.41

3.00

Un 1.5

2.32

3.87

3.22

Ov 2.5

2.16

7.74

2.45

Un 2.5

3.02

2.44

3.85

Ov 3.5

2.37

3.72

3.22

Un 3.5

2.62

3.48

3.02

Goal-Goal

3.27

2.51

3.37

No Goal

2.07

6.35

2.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

6.43

2.41

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

6.35

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Stoke vs Blackburn at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Stoke and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stoke

2.72

2.70

0.3

Draw

3.38

3.66

-2.3

Blackburn

2.57

2.81

-3.3

Over 2.5

1.95

2.12

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.88

1.89

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stoke (0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stoke in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance at home.
Stoke, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

QPR

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Derby

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Cardiff

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Sheffield Weds

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Nov

Norwich

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Huddersfield

H

4

3

W

O

G


Blackburn in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Rotherham

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Dec

Bristol City

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Brentford

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Dec

Millwall

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Barnsley

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Preston

A

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stoke and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stoke

28%

35%

24%

14%

Blackburn

29%

34%

24%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.23 goals and Blackburn to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.24 goals and Blackburn to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.64

1

5.15

2-3

2.02

2

3.94

4+

4.35

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.64

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.40

2.96

2-3 goals

2.59

4.27

2.63

4+ goals

2.87

3.03

3.11

Ov 1.5

2.68

3.78

2.77

Un 1.5

2.72

3.40

2.96

Ov 2.5

2.34

6.20

2.43

Un 2.5

3.09

2.69

3.29

Ov 3.5

2.87

3.03

3.11

Un 3.5

2.64

3.91

2.74

Goal-Goal

3.18

2.67

3.22

No Goal

2.31

6.02

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

5.21

2.49

NG+Un 2.5

2.42

6.02

2.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sheffield Weds vs Coventry at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Coventry for Championship (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

2.46

2.25

3.8

Draw

3.20

3.72

-4.4

Coventry

2.99

3.48

-4.7

Over 2.5

2.33

2.17

3.2

Under 2.5

1.61

1.86

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Barnsley

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Norwich

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Reading

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Nov

Swansea

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Preston

A

0

1

L

U

N


Coventry in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance as a guest.
Coventry, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Huddersfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Wycombe

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Dec

Luton

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Rotherham

H

3

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Nov

Cardiff

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Nov

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Coventry.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

28%

31%

20%

21%

Coventry

36%

36%

15%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.17 goals and Coventry to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.35 goals and Coventry to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Sheffield Weds to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.19

1

4.72

2-3

2.19

2

4.44

4+

4.33

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.19

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

3.10

3.13

2-3 goals

2.04

4.11

3.74

4+ goals

2.12

4.05

3.55

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.09

3.67

Un 1.5

2.79

3.10

3.13

Ov 2.5

1.78

8.11

3.16

Un 2.5

2.91

2.54

3.82

Ov 3.5

2.12

4.05

3.55

Un 3.5

2.30

3.63

3.46

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.74

4.15

No Goal

2.06

5.34

3.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

6.14

3.15

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

5.34

3.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Rotherham vs Derby at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

2.76

2.03

13.0

Draw

3.27

3.66

-3.3

Derby

2.59

4.24

-15.0

Over 2.5

2.12

2.19

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.74

1.84

-3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham (13 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bristol City

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Coventry

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Dec

Brentford

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bournemouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N


Derby in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Swansea

H

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Dec

Brentford

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Millwall

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Wycombe

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Nov

Middlesbrough

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Bristol City

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

21%

35%

21%

22%

Derby

36%

42%

12%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.15 goals and Derby to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.44 goals and Derby to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Rotherham to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.45

1

4.65

2-3

2.06

2

3.98

4+

4.44

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.45

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.87

3.26

2-3 goals

1.98