2020 12 18 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zwolle vs FC Emmen at 18 December 2020
Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven at 19 December 2020
VVV Venlo vs Twente at 19 December 2020
Utrecht vs For Sittard at 19 December 2020
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen at 19 December 2020
Den Haag vs Ajax at 20 December 2020
Vitesse vs Feyenoord at 20 December 2020
Heerenveen vs Heracles at 20 December 2020
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II at 20 December 2020


Zwolle vs FC Emmen at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and FC Emmen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zwolle

1.96

2.01

-1.3

Draw

3.68

4.08

-2.7

FC Emmen

3.65

3.89

-1.7

Over 2.5

1.65

1.79

-4.7

Under 2.5

2.24

2.27

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Ajax

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Vitesse

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

VVV Venlo

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Utrecht

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

For Sittard

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Twente

A

1

5

L

O

G

24 Oct

Willem II

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Oct

Waalwijk

A

1

1

D

U

G


FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance as a guest.
FC Emmen, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Ajax

H

0

5

L

O

N

22 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Vitesse

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Feyenoord

H

2

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Heerenveen

A

0

4

L

O

N

18 Oct

For Sittard

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, FC Emmen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zwolle

20%

26%

27%

26%

FC Emmen

32%

36%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.76 goals and FC Emmen to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the home team Zwolle to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.6 goals and FC Emmen to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team Zwolle to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

4.55

1

6.45

2-3

2.09

2

4.57

4+

3.31

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.55

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.78

6+

29.41

Un 2.5

2.28

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

3.38

3.01

2-3 goals

1.78

5.20

4.09

4+ goals

2.05

3.47

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.88

4.36

4.22

Un 1.5

2.68

3.38

3.01

Ov 2.5

1.71

6.45

3.87

Un 2.5

2.60

2.80

3.88

Ov 3.5

2.05

3.47

4.44

Un 3.5

1.99

4.45

3.67

Goal-Goal

2.22

3.03

4.55

No Goal

1.80

7.05

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

5.17

3.78

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

7.05

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Waalwijk

8.61

3.40

17.8

Draw

5.30

3.77

7.7

PSV Eindhoven

1.32

2.27

-31.7

Over 2.5

1.45

1.61

-6.9

Under 2.5

2.71

2.63

1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.8 %, 7.7 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Waalwijk in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Groningen

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

VVV Venlo

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Nov

Twente

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

3

L

O

N

25 Oct

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Oct

Zwolle

H

1

1

D

U

G


PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance as a guest.
PSV Eindhoven, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Utrecht

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Heerenveen

A

2

2

D

O

G

29 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Twente

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Willem II

H

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Den Haag

H

4

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Vitesse

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Zwolle

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, PSV Eindhoven.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Waalwijk

23%

38%

18%

21%

PSV Eindhoven

12%

36%

27%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 0.65 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 2.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.26 goals in the game and the guest team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.37 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 1.63 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

34.48

0-1

6.25

1

7.63

2-3

2.12

2

4.52

4+

2.70

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.19

4

4.63

Un 1.5

6.25

5

9.80

Ov 2.5

1.61

6+

19.23

Un 2.5

2.62

Gg

1.49

Ov 3.5

2.70

NoG

3.04

Un 3.5

1.58

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.40

5.52

1.90

2-3 goals

4.18

3.50

2.11

4+ goals

2.76

3.66

2.74

Ov 1.5

3.41

3.57

2.35

Un 1.5

3.40

5.52

1.90

Ov 2.5

2.76

6.15

2.11

Un 2.5

5.52

2.32

2.57

Ov 3.5

2.76

3.66

2.74

Un 3.5

3.95

3.85

2.05

Goal-Goal

3.38

2.85

2.83

No Goal

3.46

11.34

1.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.70

5.33

2.26

NG+Un 2.5

3.57

11.34

1.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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VVV Venlo vs Twente at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between VVV Venlo and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

VVV Venlo

3.88

2.26

18.5

Draw

3.93

3.89

0.3

Twente

1.83

3.33

-24.6

Over 2.5

1.58

1.49

3.8

Under 2.5

2.43

3.06

-8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at VVV Venlo, Draw, Over 2.5 (18.5 %, 0.3 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

VVV Venlo in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance at home.
VVV Venlo, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Feyenoord

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Dec

Waalwijk

A

2

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Zwolle

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Willem II

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Heracles

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Groningen

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Ajax

H

0

13

L

O

N

17 Oct

AZ Alkmaar

A

2

2

D

O

G


Twente in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance as a guest.
Twente, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Ajax

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Nov

Waalwijk

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Den Haag

A

4

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Zwolle

H

5

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Utrecht

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Willem II

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, VVV Venlo and the red line for guest team, Twente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

VVV Venlo

16%

23%

39%

21%

Twente

13%

47%

23%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.1 goals and Twente to score 1.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the guest team Twente to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.65 goals and Twente to score 1.44 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

47.62

0-1

7.81

1

9.35

2-3

2.02

2

5.03

4+

2.64

3

3.39

Ov 1.5

1.15

4

4.35

Un 1.5

7.81

5

8.77

Ov 2.5

1.48

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

3.06

Gg

1.37

Ov 3.5

2.64

NoG

3.69

Un 3.5

1.61

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.27

6.10

1.66

2-3 goals

1.86

4.49

4.15

4+ goals

2.54

3.01

3.64

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.70

3.91

Un 1.5

4.27

6.10

1.66

Ov 2.5

1.86

5.35

3.64

Un 2.5

4.04

2.50

2.84

Ov 3.5

2.54

3.01

3.64

Un 3.5

2.11

4.75

3.17

Goal-Goal

2.17

3.09

4.62

No Goal

2.51

12.90

1.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

4.92

3.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.68

12.90

1.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Utrecht vs For Sittard at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Utrecht and For Sittard for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Utrecht

1.36

1.99

-23.3

Draw

5.22

3.98

6.0

For Sittard

7.58

4.07

11.4

Over 2.5

1.44

1.98

-18.9

Under 2.5

2.76

2.02

13.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, For Sittard, Under 2.5 (6 %, 11.4 %, 13.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Utrecht in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance at home.
Utrecht, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Feyenoord

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Ajax

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 Nov

Heracles

A

1

4

L

O

G

24 Oct

Twente

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Groningen

A

0

0

D

U

N


For Sittard in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance as a guest.
For Sittard, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Heracles

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Willem II

H

3

2

W

O

G

29 Nov

Vitesse

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Feyenoord

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Nov

Zwolle

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Ajax

A

2

5

L

O

G

25 Oct

Groningen

H

1

3

L

O

G

18 Oct

FC Emmen

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Utrecht and the red line for guest team, For Sittard.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Utrecht

23%

26%

28%

23%

For Sittard

33%

41%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Utrecht to score 2.58 goals and For Sittard to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.29 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 1.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.51 goals and For Sittard to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.89

1

5.52

2-3

2.02

2

4.18

4+

4.05

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.89

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-