# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Zwolle vs FC Emmen at 18 December 2020**** Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven at 19 December 2020**** VVV Venlo vs Twente at 19 December 2020**** Utrecht vs For Sittard at 19 December 2020**** Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen at 19 December 2020**** Den Haag vs Ajax at 20 December 2020**** Vitesse vs Feyenoord at 20 December 2020**** Heerenveen vs Heracles at 20 December 2020**** AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II at 20 December 2020**

###
Zwolle vs FC Emmen at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zwolle** and **FC Emmen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **18 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zwolle |
1.96 |
2.01 |
-1.3 |

Draw |
3.68 |
4.08 |
-2.7 |

FC Emmen |
3.65 |
3.89 |
-1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.79 |
-4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.27 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** at home**.

Zwolle,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Emmen,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zwolle** and the red line for guest team, **FC Emmen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zwolle |
20% |
26% |
27% |
26% |

FC Emmen |
32% |
36% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.76 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.87** goals in the game and the home team **Zwolle ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.6 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.73** goals in the game and the home team **Zwolle ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.55 |

1 |
6.45 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.57 |
4+ |
3.31 |

3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.55 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |

6+ |
29.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.68 |
3.38 |
3.01 |

2-3 goals |
1.78 |
5.20 |
4.09 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
3.47 |
4.44 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
4.36 |
4.22 |

Un 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.38 |
3.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.45 |
3.87 |

Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
2.80 |
3.88 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
3.47 |
4.44 |

Un 3.5 |
1.99 |
4.45 |
3.67 |

Goal-Goal |
2.22 |
3.03 |
4.55 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
7.05 |
3.29 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
5.17 |
3.78 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
7.05 |
3.07 |

####
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###
Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Waalwijk** and **PSV Eindhoven** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Waalwijk |
8.61 |
3.40 |
17.8 |

Draw |
5.30 |
3.77 |
7.7 |

PSV Eindhoven |
1.32 |
2.27 |
-31.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.45 |
1.61 |
-6.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.63 |
1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.8 %, 7.7 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** at home**.

Waalwijk,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**PSV Eindhoven** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PSV Eindhoven** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance** as a guest**.

PSV Eindhoven,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Willem II |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Den Haag |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Zwolle |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Waalwijk** and the red line for guest team, **PSV Eindhoven. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Waalwijk |
23% |
38% |
18% |
21% |

PSV Eindhoven |
12% |
36% |
27% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **0.65 ** goals and **PSV Eindhoven** to score **2.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.26** goals in the game and the guest team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **1.96** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.37 ** goals and **PSV Eindhoven** to score **1.63 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
34.48 |
0-1 |
6.25 |

1 |
7.63 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.52 |
4+ |
2.70 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |

4 |
4.63 |
Un 1.5 |
6.25 |

5 |
9.80 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |

6+ |
19.23 |
Un 2.5 |
2.62 |

Gg |
1.49 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.70 |

NoG |
3.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.58 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.40 |
5.52 |
1.90 |

2-3 goals |
4.18 |
3.50 |
2.11 |

4+ goals |
2.76 |
3.66 |
2.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.41 |
3.57 |
2.35 |

Un 1.5 |
3.40 |
5.52 |
1.90 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
6.15 |
2.11 |

Un 2.5 |
5.52 |
2.32 |
2.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.76 |
3.66 |
2.74 |

Un 3.5 |
3.95 |
3.85 |
2.05 |

Goal-Goal |
3.38 |
2.85 |
2.83 |

No Goal |
3.46 |
11.34 |
1.60 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.70 |
5.33 |
2.26 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.57 |
11.34 |
1.66 |

####
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###
VVV Venlo vs Twente at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **VVV Venlo** and **Twente** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

VVV Venlo |
3.88 |
2.26 |
18.5 |

Draw |
3.93 |
3.89 |
0.3 |

Twente |
1.83 |
3.33 |
-24.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.49 |
3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.43 |
3.06 |
-8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **VVV Venlo, Draw, Over 2.5 (18.5 %, 0.3 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** at home**.

VVV Venlo,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
13 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** as a guest**.

Twente,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Waalwijk |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **VVV Venlo** and the red line for guest team, **Twente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

VVV Venlo |
16% |
23% |
39% |
21% |

Twente |
13% |
47% |
23% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **VVV Venlo** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.01** goals in the game and the guest team **Twente ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **VVV Venlo** to score **1.65 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.09** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
47.62 |
0-1 |
7.81 |

1 |
9.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
5.03 |
4+ |
2.64 |

3 |
3.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.15 |

4 |
4.35 |
Un 1.5 |
7.81 |

5 |
8.77 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
3.06 |

Gg |
1.37 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.64 |

NoG |
3.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.61 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.27 |
6.10 |
1.66 |

2-3 goals |
1.86 |
4.49 |
4.15 |

4+ goals |
2.54 |
3.01 |
3.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.70 |
3.91 |

Un 1.5 |
4.27 |
6.10 |
1.66 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.35 |
3.64 |

Un 2.5 |
4.04 |
2.50 |
2.84 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.01 |
3.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.11 |
4.75 |
3.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.17 |
3.09 |
4.62 |

No Goal |
2.51 |
12.90 |
1.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
4.92 |
3.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
12.90 |
1.89 |

####
Go to Top

###
Utrecht vs For Sittard at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Utrecht** and **For Sittard** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Utrecht |
1.36 |
1.99 |
-23.3 |

Draw |
5.22 |
3.98 |
6.0 |

For Sittard |
7.58 |
4.07 |
11.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.98 |
-18.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.02 |
13.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, For Sittard, Under 2.5 (6 %, 11.4 %, 13.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Utrecht** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Utrecht** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance** at home**.

Utrecht,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Nov |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Twente |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** as a guest**.

For Sittard,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Dec |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Willem II |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Utrecht** and the red line for guest team, **For Sittard. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Utrecht |
23% |
26% |
28% |
23% |

For Sittard |
33% |
41% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Utrecht** to score **2.58 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.29** goals in the game and the home team **Utrecht ** to win by **1.87** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Utrecht** to score **1.51 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Utrecht ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |