2020 12 18 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ath Bilbao vs Huesca at 18 December 2020
Sevilla vs Valladolid at 19 December 2020
Ath Madrid vs Elche at 19 December 2020
Barcelona vs Valencia at 19 December 2020
Levante vs Sociedad at 19 December 2020
Osasuna vs Villarreal at 19 December 2020
Cadiz vs Getafe at 20 December 2020
Celta vs Alaves at 20 December 2020
Eibar vs Real Madrid at 20 December 2020
Granada vs Betis at 20 December 2020


Ath Bilbao vs Huesca at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Huesca for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Bilbao

2.07

1.96

2.7

Draw

3.16

4.08

-7.1

Huesca

4.07

4.08

-0.1

Over 2.5

2.54

1.90

13.3

Under 2.5

1.52

2.11

-18.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Bilbao, Over 2.5 (2.7 %, 13.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance at home.
Ath Bilbao, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Real Madrid

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Valencia

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Dec

Celta

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Nov

Betis

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Sevilla

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Osasuna

A

0

1

L

U

N


Huesca in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance as a guest.
Huesca, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Alaves

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Granada

A

3

3

D

O

G

28 Nov

Sevilla

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Osasuna

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Real Madrid

A

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Sociedad

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Oct

Valladolid

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Bilbao and the red line for guest team, Huesca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Bilbao

22%

24%

32%

22%

Huesca

34%

36%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.27 goals and Huesca to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.55 goals and Huesca to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.27

1

6.25

2-3

2.00

2

4.17

4+

3.77

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.27

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.90

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

3.16

3.00

2-3 goals

1.65

5.69

4.60

4+ goals

2.17

3.12

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.80

4.43

4.59

Un 1.5

2.85

3.16

3.00

Ov 2.5

1.67

6.19

4.17

Un 2.5

2.46

2.93

3.98

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.12

4.57

Un 3.5

1.90

4.54

3.93

Goal-Goal

2.15

2.99

4.97

No Goal

1.80

6.53

3.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.79

5.05

4.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

6.53

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sevilla vs Valladolid at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sevilla

1.55

1.85

-10.5

Draw

3.99

4.08

-0.6

Valladolid

6.87

4.67

6.9

Over 2.5

2.28

2.02

5.6

Under 2.5

1.68

1.98

-9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (6.9 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Celta

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Eibar

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Granada

A

0

1

L

U

N


Valladolid in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Osasuna

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Nov

Levante

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Granada

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Villarreal

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Alaves

H

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Huesca

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sevilla

19%

32%

23%

26%

Valladolid

42%

32%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.67 goals and Valladolid to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 1.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.56 goals and Valladolid to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.64

1

5.13

2-3

2.06

2

4.33

4+

4.20

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.64

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.20

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.05

3.44

4.51

2-3 goals

1.74

4.75

4.66

4+ goals

1.86

3.84

4.96

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.41

4.76

Un 1.5

2.05

3.44

4.51

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.94

4.13

Un 2.5

2.20

2.78

5.38

Ov 3.5

1.86

3.84

4.96

Un 3.5

1.84

4.18

4.61

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.85

4.58

No Goal

1.56

6.64

4.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

5.89

3.58

NG+Un 2.5

1.76

6.64

4.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Ath Madrid vs Elche at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Madrid

1.23

1.66

-21.1

Draw

5.99

4.42

5.9

Elche

17.42

5.78

11.6

Over 2.5

2.08

1.92

4.0

Under 2.5

1.79

2.09

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Elche, Over 2.5 (5.9 %, 11.6 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance at home.
Ath Madrid, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Valladolid

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Barcelona

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Betis

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Celta

A

2

0

W

U

N


Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Granada

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Villarreal

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Betis

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Oct

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Alaves

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Madrid

19%

25%

24%

32%

Elche

43%

36%

16%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 2.07 goals and Elche to score 0.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.7 goals and Elche to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.91

1

5.71

2-3

2.01

2

4.48

4+

4.03

3

3.65

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.95

Un 1.5

3.91

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.16

3.76

2-3 goals

1.52

5.52

6.21

4+ goals

1.48

4.51

9.92

Ov 1.5

1.51

5.14

7.10

Un 1.5

2.39

3.16

3.76

Ov 2.5

1.33

9.49

6.96

Un 2.5

2.28

2.80

4.89

Ov 3.5

1.48

4.51

9.92

Un 3.5

1.74

4.40

5.09

Goal-Goal

1.83

3.20

7.14

No Goal

1.54

6.63

4.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.47

6.80

5.75

NG+Un 2.5

1.85

6.63

3.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barcelona vs Valencia at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Valencia for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barcelona

1.32

2.18

-29.9

Draw

5.83

3.91

8.4

Valencia

9.22

3.50

17.7

Over 2.5

1.38

2.00

-22.5

Under 2.5

2.97

2.00

16.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Valencia, Under 2.5 (8.4 %, 17.7 %, 16.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barcelona in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance at home.
Barcelona, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Osasuna

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Betis

H

5

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Alaves

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Real Madrid

H

1

3

L

O

G


Valencia in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance as a guest.
Valencia, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Dec

Eibar

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Ath Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Alaves

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

Real Madrid

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Getafe

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Oct

Elche

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Valencia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barcelona

24%

28%

29%

19%

Valencia

37%

29%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 2.8 goals and Valencia to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.44 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 2.16 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.43 goals and Valencia to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.82

1

5.75

2-3

2.08

2

4.20

4+

3.92

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.82

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

2.98