# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Ath Bilbao vs Huesca at 18 December 2020**** Sevilla vs Valladolid at 19 December 2020**** Ath Madrid vs Elche at 19 December 2020**** Barcelona vs Valencia at 19 December 2020**** Levante vs Sociedad at 19 December 2020**** Osasuna vs Villarreal at 19 December 2020**** Cadiz vs Getafe at 20 December 2020**** Celta vs Alaves at 20 December 2020**** Eibar vs Real Madrid at 20 December 2020**** Granada vs Betis at 20 December 2020**

###
Ath Bilbao vs Huesca at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ath Bilbao** and **Huesca** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **18 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ath Bilbao |
2.07 |
1.96 |
2.7 |

Draw |
3.16 |
4.08 |
-7.1 |

Huesca |
4.07 |
4.08 |
-0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.54 |
1.90 |
13.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.52 |
2.11 |
-18.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ath Bilbao, Over 2.5 (2.7 %, 13.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ath Bilbao** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Bilbao** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance** at home**.

Ath Bilbao,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Real Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Valencia |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
Celta |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Nov |
Betis |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Sevilla |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Huesca** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huesca** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance** as a guest**.

Huesca,** as a guest**, had no wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Granada |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Real Madrid |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ath Bilbao** and the red line for guest team, **Huesca. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ath Bilbao |
22% |
24% |
32% |
22% |

Huesca |
34% |
36% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Huesca** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Bilbao ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Huesca** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Bilbao ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
6.25 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.77 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.77 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.85 |
3.16 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
1.65 |
5.69 |
4.60 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.12 |
4.57 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.43 |
4.59 |

Un 1.5 |
2.85 |
3.16 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
6.19 |
4.17 |

Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
2.93 |
3.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.12 |
4.57 |

Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.54 |
3.93 |

Goal-Goal |
2.15 |
2.99 |
4.97 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
6.53 |
3.43 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
5.05 |
4.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.53 |
3.24 |

####
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###
Sevilla vs Valladolid at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sevilla** and **Valladolid** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sevilla |
1.55 |
1.85 |
-10.5 |

Draw |
3.99 |
4.08 |
-0.6 |

Valladolid |
6.87 |
4.67 |
6.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.02 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.98 |
-9.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valladolid, Over 2.5 (6.9 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sevilla** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sevilla** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance** at home**.

Sevilla,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Celta |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Eibar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Granada |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Valladolid** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valladolid** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance** as a guest**.

Valladolid,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Levante |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Granada |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Villarreal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Alaves |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sevilla** and the red line for guest team, **Valladolid. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sevilla |
19% |
32% |
23% |
26% |

Valladolid |
42% |
32% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sevilla** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Valladolid** to score **0.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and the home team **Sevilla ** to win by **1.08** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sevilla** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Valladolid** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Sevilla ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
4.20 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.05 |
3.44 |
4.51 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
4.75 |
4.66 |

4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.84 |
4.96 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.78 |
4.41 |
4.76 |

Un 1.5 |
2.05 |
3.44 |
4.51 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.94 |
4.13 |

Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.78 |
5.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
3.84 |
4.96 |

Un 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.18 |
4.61 |

Goal-Goal |
2.32 |
2.85 |
4.58 |

No Goal |
1.56 |
6.64 |
4.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.89 |
3.58 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.64 |
4.30 |

####
Go to Top

###
Ath Madrid vs Elche at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ath Madrid** and **Elche** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ath Madrid |
1.23 |
1.66 |
-21.1 |

Draw |
5.99 |
4.42 |
5.9 |

Elche |
17.42 |
5.78 |
11.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.92 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.09 |
-8.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Elche, Over 2.5 (5.9 %, 11.6 %, 4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ath Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Madrid** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance** at home**.

Ath Madrid,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Barcelona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Cadiz |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Osasuna |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Betis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Celta |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Elche** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Elche** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance** as a guest**.

Elche,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Granada |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Villarreal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Levante |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
Celta |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Betis |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ath Madrid** and the red line for guest team, **Elche. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ath Madrid |
19% |
25% |
24% |
32% |

Elche |
43% |
36% |
16% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ath Madrid** to score **2.07 ** goals and **Elche** to score **0.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Madrid ** to win by **1.75** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ath Madrid** to score **1.7 ** goals and **Elche** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Madrid ** to win by **0.86** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
4.03 |

3 |
3.65 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |

Gg |
2.16 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |

NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.16 |
3.76 |

2-3 goals |
1.52 |
5.52 |
6.21 |

4+ goals |
1.48 |
4.51 |
9.92 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
5.14 |
7.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.16 |
3.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.33 |
9.49 |
6.96 |

Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.80 |
4.89 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.48 |
4.51 |
9.92 |

Un 3.5 |
1.74 |
4.40 |
5.09 |

Goal-Goal |
1.83 |
3.20 |
7.14 |

No Goal |
1.54 |
6.63 |
4.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.47 |
6.80 |
5.75 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.63 |
3.97 |

####
Go to Top

###
Barcelona vs Valencia at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barcelona** and **Valencia** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barcelona |
1.32 |
2.18 |
-29.9 |

Draw |
5.83 |
3.91 |
8.4 |

Valencia |
9.22 |
3.50 |
17.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.38 |
2.00 |
-22.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.97 |
2.00 |
16.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Valencia, Under 2.5 (8.4 %, 17.7 %, 16.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barcelona** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barcelona** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance** at home**.

Barcelona,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Levante |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Osasuna |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Betis |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Alaves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Valencia** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valencia** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance** as a guest**.

Valencia,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Eibar |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Real Madrid |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Elche |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barcelona** and the red line for guest team, **Valencia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barcelona |
24% |
28% |
29% |
19% |

Valencia |
37% |
29% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barcelona** to score **2.8 ** goals and **Valencia** to score **0.64 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.44** goals in the game and the home team **Barcelona ** to win by **2.16** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barcelona** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Valencia** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Barcelona ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
2.98 |