2020 12 18 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hull vs Portsmouth at 18 December 2020
Northampton vs Lincoln at 19 December 2020
Wycombe vs QPR at 19 December 2020
Swindon vs Charlton at 19 December 2020
Shrewsbury vs Sunderland at 19 December 2020
Rochdale vs Gillingham at 19 December 2020
Peterboro vs Ipswich at 19 December 2020
Fleetwood Town vs Wigan at 19 December 2020
Burton vs Doncaster at 19 December 2020
Bristol Rvs vs Oxford at 19 December 2020
AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe at 19 December 2020
Accrington vs Blackpool at 19 December 2020
Plymouth vs Milton Keynes Dons at 19 December 2020


Hull vs Portsmouth at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Hull and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hull

2.52

2.27

4.4

Draw

3.35

3.76

-3.3

Portsmouth

2.76

3.40

-6.8

Over 2.5

2.02

2.04

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.81

1.96

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Hull (4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hull in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hull in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hull’s performance at home.
Hull, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 71.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Blackpool

A

2

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Oxford

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Ipswich

A

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

A

3

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Burton

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Swindon

A

1

2

L

O

G


Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Ipswich

A

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Peterboro

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Oxford

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Crewe

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Lincoln

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hull and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hull

23%

32%

26%

18%

Portsmouth

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hull to score 1.26 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hull to score 1.39 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.80

1

5.32

2-3

2.02

2

4.03

4+

4.12

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.51

3.09

2-3 goals

2.11

4.26

3.43

4+ goals

2.36

3.24

3.74

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.86

3.53

Un 1.5

2.55

3.51

3.09

Ov 2.5

1.93

6.52

3.06

Un 2.5

2.75

2.68

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.24

3.74

Un 3.5

2.25

3.96

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.73

3.92

No Goal

1.97

6.39

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

5.40

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

6.39

2.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Northampton vs Lincoln at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

3.65

2.99

6.0

Draw

3.40

4.29

-6.1

Lincoln

2.03

2.31

-6.0

Over 2.5

2.12

1.70

11.7

Under 2.5

1.73

2.43

-16.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton, Over 2.5 (6 %, 11.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Oxford

A

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Crewe

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Doncaster

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Rochdale

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Burton

A

3

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Accrington

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

0

D

U

N


Lincoln in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Sunderland

H

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Portsmouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Doncaster

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

34%

19%

28%

19%

Lincoln

21%

37%

13%

29%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 0.93 goals and Lincoln to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Lincoln to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.31 goals and Lincoln to score 1.5 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.18

1

5.95

2-3

2.28

2

5.78

4+

3.11

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.18

5

9.52

Ov 2.5

1.70

6+

18.18

Un 2.5

2.43

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.11

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

6.13

3.37

1.85

2-3 goals

2.21

6.27

2.58

4+ goals

3.35

3.50

2.40

Ov 1.5

2.58

4.70

2.50

Un 1.5

6.13

3.37

1.85

Ov 2.5

2.47

6.39

2.28

Un 2.5

4.29

2.92

2.35

Ov 3.5

3.35

3.50

2.40

Un 3.5

2.85

4.81

2.27

Goal-Goal

2.61

3.21

3.27

No Goal

3.56

6.76

1.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

4.89

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

3.56

6.76

1.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wycombe vs QPR at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and QPR for League One (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

3.24

2.41

10.6

Draw

3.41

3.92

-3.8

QPR

2.21

3.03

-12.2

Over 2.5

1.97

1.88

2.4

Under 2.5

1.86

2.14

-7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe, Over 2.5 (10.6 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Coventry

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Preston

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Dec

Stoke

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Huddersfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Brentford

H

0

0

D

U

N


QPR in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance as a guest.
QPR, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Reading

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Bristol City

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Brentford

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Rotherham

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, QPR.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

27%

26%

28%

19%

QPR

27%

37%

20%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.07 goals and QPR to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team QPR to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.4 goals and QPR to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.15

1

5.95

2-3

2.09

2

4.41

4+

3.53

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.15

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.87

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.44

3.30

2.46

2-3 goals

2.04

5.03

3.21

4+ goals

2.53

3.22

3.41

Ov 1.5

2.20

4.16

3.28

Un 1.5

3.44

3.30

2.46

Ov 2.5

1.99

6.07

3.02

Un 2.5

3.18

2.79

3.06

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.22

3.41

Un 3.5

2.37

4.28

2.91

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.92

3.93

No Goal

2.33

6.40

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.00

3.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

6.40

2.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Swindon vs Charlton at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Charlton for League One (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

3.13

3.11

0.2

Draw

3.43

3.94

-3.8

Charlton

2.24

2.36

-2.3

Over 2.5

1.96

1.92

1.1

Under 2.5

1.86

2.08

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon, Over 2.5 (0.2 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Gillingham

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Crewe

A

2

4

L

O

G

28 Nov

Oxford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Accrington

H

0

3

L

O

N


Charlton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance as a guest.
Charlton, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

H

5

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Shrewsbury

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Ipswich

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Burton

A

2

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Gillingham

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Fleetwood Town

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Portsmouth

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Charlton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

34%

26%

23%

16%

Charlton

21%

37%

24%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.09 goals and Charlton to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.21 goals and Charlton to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.98

1

5.52

2-3

2.11

2

4.37

4+

3.65

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.98

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-