# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Hull vs Portsmouth at 18 December 2020**** Northampton vs Lincoln at 19 December 2020**** Wycombe vs QPR at 19 December 2020**** Swindon vs Charlton at 19 December 2020**** Shrewsbury vs Sunderland at 19 December 2020**** Rochdale vs Gillingham at 19 December 2020**** Peterboro vs Ipswich at 19 December 2020**** Fleetwood Town vs Wigan at 19 December 2020**** Burton vs Doncaster at 19 December 2020**** Bristol Rvs vs Oxford at 19 December 2020**** AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe at 19 December 2020**** Accrington vs Blackpool at 19 December 2020**** Plymouth vs Milton Keynes Dons at 19 December 2020**

###
Hull vs Portsmouth at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hull** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **18 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hull |
2.52 |
2.27 |
4.4 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.76 |
-3.3 |

Portsmouth |
2.76 |
3.40 |
-6.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.04 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.96 |
-4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Hull (4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hull** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hull** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hull scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hull’s performance** at home**.

Hull,** at home**, had 5 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 71.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Hull scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hull was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Blackpool |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Ipswich |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Burton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Ipswich |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Nov |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Lincoln |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hull** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hull |
23% |
32% |
26% |
18% |

Portsmouth |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hull** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hull** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.12 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 |
3.51 |
3.09 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
4.26 |
3.43 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.24 |
3.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.86 |
3.53 |

Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.51 |
3.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
6.52 |
3.06 |

Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.68 |
3.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.24 |
3.74 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.96 |
3.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.73 |
3.92 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.40 |
3.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.39 |
2.95 |

####
Go to Top

###
Northampton vs Lincoln at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Northampton** and **Lincoln** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Northampton |
3.65 |
2.99 |
6.0 |

Draw |
3.40 |
4.29 |
-6.1 |

Lincoln |
2.03 |
2.31 |
-6.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
1.70 |
11.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.43 |
-16.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton, Over 2.5 (6 %, 11.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** at home**.

Northampton,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Burton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** as a guest**.

Lincoln,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Northampton** and the red line for guest team, **Lincoln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Northampton |
34% |
19% |
28% |
19% |

Lincoln |
21% |
37% |
13% |
29% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the guest team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.5 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.28 |

2 |
5.78 |
4+ |
3.11 |

3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
9.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |

6+ |
18.18 |
Un 2.5 |
2.43 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.11 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
6.13 |
3.37 |
1.85 |

2-3 goals |
2.21 |
6.27 |
2.58 |

4+ goals |
3.35 |
3.50 |
2.40 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
4.70 |
2.50 |

Un 1.5 |
6.13 |
3.37 |
1.85 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |
6.39 |
2.28 |

Un 2.5 |
4.29 |
2.92 |
2.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.35 |
3.50 |
2.40 |

Un 3.5 |
2.85 |
4.81 |
2.27 |

Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
3.21 |
3.27 |

No Goal |
3.56 |
6.76 |
1.75 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
4.89 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.56 |
6.76 |
1.95 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wycombe vs QPR at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wycombe** and **QPR** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wycombe |
3.24 |
2.41 |
10.6 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.92 |
-3.8 |

QPR |
2.21 |
3.03 |
-12.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.88 |
2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.14 |
-7.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wycombe, Over 2.5 (10.6 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** at home**.

Wycombe,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Preston |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Derby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Huddersfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** as a guest**.

QPR,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Rotherham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Watford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wycombe** and the red line for guest team, **QPR. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wycombe |
27% |
26% |
28% |
19% |

QPR |
27% |
37% |
20% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **1.07 ** goals and **QPR** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the guest team **QPR ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **1.4 ** goals and **QPR** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.53 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.53 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.44 |
3.30 |
2.46 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
5.03 |
3.21 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.22 |
3.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
4.16 |
3.28 |

Un 1.5 |
3.44 |
3.30 |
2.46 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.07 |
3.02 |

Un 2.5 |
3.18 |
2.79 |
3.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.22 |
3.41 |

Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
4.28 |
2.91 |

Goal-Goal |
2.48 |
2.92 |
3.93 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.00 |
3.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
6.40 |
2.44 |

####
Go to Top

###
Swindon vs Charlton at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Charlton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
3.13 |
3.11 |
0.2 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.94 |
-3.8 |

Charlton |
2.24 |
2.36 |
-2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.92 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.08 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon, Over 2.5 (0.2 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Gillingham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** as a guest**.

Charlton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Ipswich |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Burton |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Charlton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
34% |
26% |
23% |
16% |

Charlton |
21% |
37% |
24% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.65 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |